Thursday, 26 May 2016

E.I.R.STRATEGIC ALERT

Volume 30, No. 21 - May 26, 2016
Putin’s Latest Flank: The Russian “Asia Pivot”

Gains Strategic Momentum
Russian President Vladimir Putin is executing an “Asia pivot”

that not only further aligns Moscow with China’s One Belt One

Road initiative, but also draws in other Asian nations to a larger

paradigm shift of great strategic import.

In just two weeks’ time, Putin met with Japanese Prime Minister

Shinzo Abe, opening up a potentially powerful bilateral cooperation

that already has altered the landscape of Northeast

Asia, and also hosted all of the ten ASEAN heads of state in

Sochi, where signifi cant political and economic agreements were



reached, including the prospect of creating a free trade zone

encompassing the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) and ASEAN.

The Putin-Abe summit of May 6 was particularly signifi cant,



in light of the fact that Barack Obama had personally pressured

Abe to cancel the visit, as part of Washington and NATO’s persistent

targeting of Russia. But Abe refused, and as a result,

Russian-Japanese relations have moved to a fundamentally

new level. Following the summit, the Russian government offered

Japanese investors a priority stake in a number of largescale

development projects in the Russian Far East. This issue

will be taken up further at the East Asia Economic Forum in

Vladivostok next September, which Abe intends to attend.

Furthermore, both Russian and Japanese sources confi rmed



after the Putin-Abe meeting that the two countries are now

re-engaged in diplomatic talks, aimed at resolving the dispute

over the four northern islands.

The Russia-ASEAN summit in Sochi on May 19-20 was, by

all accounts, a tremendous success. The title of the event --

“Towards Strategic Partnership for the Sake of the Common

Good” -- is a clear reference to the rejection of geopolitics. It

resulted in billions of dollars in new deals, and in deep discussions

about creating the framework for huge increases in trade

between the EEU and ASEAN (Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia,

Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand,

Vietnam).

The President of the Asian Infrastructure Development Bank

(AIIB) Jin Liquin also attended the summit, where he met with

Putin . Russia has submitted 16 projects in the Far East for

funding by the new bank initiated by China.

While this dynamic is gaining momentum, President Obama

began on May 22 a trip to Vietnam and Japan, where he is attempting

to hold together his own “Asia pivot”, which is openly

and aggresively directed against China.

During his stay in Vietnam, Barack Obama announced the

lifting of the arms embargo which has been in force since the

atrocious Vietnam War, but that may not be enough to prevent

the government from moving forward with its recent overtures

to both Moscow and Beijing.

At the same time, the Abe government’s outreach to Moscow

indicates that it is no longer willing to become a geopolitical

pawn in that game. Another indication is that a new Japanese

ambassador has been appointed to Beijing, who is a well-known

China specialist and supporter of greater Sino-Japanese cooperation

in all fi elds, security as well as economic.



On the U.S. side, Obama’s arrogant remarks to Japanese TV

on the eve of his visit, saying he could understand why U.S.

President Harry Truman had dropped the atomic bombs on

Hiroshima and Nagasaki, were not conducive to improving relations.
Moscow Reiterates Call for Joint Offensive

against Jihadi Extremists
In addition to consolidating relations in Asia, the Russian government

is preparing another major move in South-West Asia.

In a press conference on May 19, Russian Defense Minister

Sergei Shoigu called upon the United States to join Russia in

launching a major air campaign against the Nusra Front, and

against the smuggling networks still bringing weapons and

other materials across the Turkish border into the ISIS and

Nusra enclaves in northern Syria.

We quote: “We’re proposing to the United States as a cochairman

of the International Syria Support Group to start

joint operations of the Russian air task force and the U.S.-led

aviation from May 25 to plan and deliver strikes against Jabhat

al-Nusra groups, illegal armed formations that are rejecting

the ceasefi re regime, and also against the caravans with



weapons and ammunition, armed units illegally crossing the

Syrian-Turkish border and in these operations exclude strikes

against civilian facilities and populated areas.”

Shoigu also urged the US to get the rebel factions that are

signatories to the UN ceasefi re agreement to withdraw their



forces from Nusra territory, to avoid being hit. The defense

minister made clear that, with or without the collaboration of

Washington, Russia will launch “unilateral strikes” against those

named targets as of May 25. According to sources, air traffi c at



the Russian airbase in Latakia has exponentially increased over

the days leading to the deadline.

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2 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER N° 21/ 2016

Russia has also pressed for two Saudi-backed Salafi st factions,



Ahrar al-Sham and Jaish al-Islam, to be placed on the

UN terrorism list, because they are, in reality, indistinguishable

from Nusra, and have engaged repeatedly in joint military

operations with Nusra. So far, the U.S. has blocked UN action

against the two groups.

Back in Washington, Pentagon spokesman Navy Capt. Jeff

Davis announced Barack Obama’s summary rejection of any cooperation

on May 20, stating “We do not collaborate or coordinate

with the Russians on any operations in Syria.”

However, indications are that the U.S. coalition and Kurdish

YPG (People’s Protection Units) are preparing an offensive to

retake Raqqa. And ISIS is using force to prevent civilians from

leaving so that any battle to free the city will be at the cost of

massive civilian casualties.
Europe Needs to Cooperate with Russia

ISIS Threats to European Championships. Patrick Calvar,



the head of the French domestic intelligence agency DGSI, has

launched a public warning that the country is facing a rash of

ISIS blind terror attacks, and identifi ed the upcoming Euro



2016 soccer tournament as a likely target. The soccer championship

begins June 10 and runs for a month at stadiums

throughout France.

Calvar noted that ISIS has plenty of forces to activate. There

are, he said according to Reuters, 645 French nationals now

in Syria and Iraq and over 400 are involved in combat with

various jihadist groups. In addition, there are 201 other French

nationals traveling back and forth between the Middle East and

Europe. Calvar particularly warned of bombs being planted at

crowded locations -- like the soccer matches.

Last November, on the same day as the murderous attack

at the Bataclan concert in Paris which claimed 130 lives, another

bloodbath was avoided at the last minute as a bomb was

planned to go off almost simultaneously at the nearby packed

stadium of Saint Denis, which was only foiled when the jihadi

wearing the explosive belt was denied access by security.

The question this poses is obvious: since Russia is determined

to eliminate the Islamic State and similar groups, why is Europe,

at the behest of Washington, refusing to cooperate with

Moscow?

Welcome Putin Back to Europe. The Hamburg weekly Stern



ran a story last week underscoring that cooperation with Russia

and President Putin is the only means to end the chaos in

Syria and resolve the refugee crisis. Just as Chancellor Merkel

was again attempting to salvage the EU rotten deal with Turkey,

Stern pointed out that “Vladimir Putin is more predictable,

sociable and right-minded than the irrational Turk Recep Tayyip

Erdogan. Angela Merkel got a clear idea about it in conversations

with both of them.”

The shameful deal with Turkey to stop the refugee fl ow is



already falling apart, due to Erdogan’s irrational behavior and

demands. “There is a growing conviction in the West about

Russia’s importance. In a political sense, it means quickly turning

toward Putin, stopping the arms race in the East as well as

putting an end to sanctions against Russia. At least partially.”
Better Glass-Steagall than the Volcker Rule,

Chicago Economist Argues

On the list of the 100 most infl uential thinkers drafted by Foreign



Policy in 2012, there were only two Italians. One is University

of Chicago economist Luigi Zingales. The other is Mario

Draghi. Both have been free-market economists, but whereas

the current head of the ECB sticks to the wrong policy, Zingales

is now campaigning for a more reasonable one.

At a conference of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank on

May 16, Zingales presented a strong case for scrapping the

Volcker Rule, the alleged ban on proprietary trading by commercial

banks, and restoring Glass-Steagall. His presentation

to the second session provoked much more controversy and

attempted “push-back” from the Fed/IMF/Economist audience,

than the previous one had.

The noted conservative economist stated bluntly that the

Volcker Rule of the Dodd-Frank Act is not implementable, and

that those who promoted it in 2010 knew that, and also knew

that “the public wanted Glass-Steagall.”

This was one of fi ve reasons Dr. Zingales presented for reenacting



Glass-Steagall, but it had the most force. He said that

other schemes for fi nancial stability that purport to be “better



than Glass-Steagall” are all too complex to implement, are

not redundant in protection, lack history of effectiveness and

therefore public support, and can be picked apart by fi nancial



interests to undermine the whole system.

That was confi rmed during the Q&A period by an expert who



helped the original Volcker Rule, which was only three pages

long, but then became 30 pages in the Frank-Dodd bill, then,

together with the implementation rules, 300 pages!

Zingales noted that Glass-Steagall had reduced banks’ political

power, fragmenting their interests and power. After its

repeal, fi nancial fi rms all pushed the same interests and were



much more powerful, as evidenced in the disastrous 2005 reform

of U.S. bankruptcy law, which gave derivatives and credit

card debt priority over other claims.

He also said that Glass-Steagall demonstrably promoted the

development of U.S. stock markets, while its abrogation immediately

promoted the hegemony of securities/derivatives/repo

markets with “OTC” characteristics. These are increased leverage,

fewer permitted players and less competition, opaqueness,

and increased profi ts for fi nancial fi rms.



Finally, Zingales cited “the alcohol rule.” His mother never

used any disinfectant other than alcohol, he said, so that she

could tell it was working by her children’s reaction. “The banks

being regulated should scream,” he said, “or it isn’t working.”

Note that the head of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Neil

Kashkari, a strong proponent of Glass-Steagall, is holding a

series of conferences on “Ending Too Big To Fail Banks” (cf.

SAS 8, 15/16).
Chinese Leadership Firmly Rejects Talk of

New Cultural Revolution
May 16 marked the 50th anniversary of the launching of China’s

disastrous Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution in 1966.

The occasion was used by the usual anti-China networks to accuse

current President Xi Jinping of attempting to launch a new

Cultural Revolution of his own, essentially interpreting his anticorruption

campaign and strict measures to prevent a color

revolution as moves to set up tyrannical rule and a “personality

cult” like that of Mao Zedong. Some domestic forces have also

fed into the nostalgia for the ferment of that era.

The newspaper of the Communist Party, People’s Daily,

fi rmly rejected all such talk on May 17, writing that China



would never “allow a re-enactment of a mistake like the Cultural

Revolution,” which infl icted “comprehensive and severe”



harm. And further, “History has amply demonstrated that the

Cultural Revolution was totally wrong in theory and practice. In

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N°21 / 2016 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER 3



no sense was it, or could it have been, revolutionary or socially

progressive.”

The Global Times, a daily under the auspices of the People’s

Daily, also published an editorial on May 17 under the title “Society

Firmly Rejects Cultural Revolution.” It stated bluntly that

the “decade-long internal chaos was a huge disaster.”

“China’s development in recent decades started from complete

denial of the Cultural Revolution in theory and shifting

the focus of the country to economic construction in practice.

In the over 30 years, we strived to recover from the losses.

The shared goal has provided strong momentum for the country’s

progress.... No matter whether it is the anti-corruption

campaign and advancing rule of law, or developing the public’s

livelihood and reducing social gaps, we must stick to the path

of socialism with Chinese characteristics.

“We have bid farewell to the Cultural Revolution. We can say

it once again today, that the Cultural Revolution cannot and will

not come back. There is no place for it in today’s China.”

Indeed, the megaprojects for infrastructure development

adopted by the Chinese leadership under Xi Jinping (New Silk

Road /One Belt One Road projets) are based on an entirely different

approach. It is useful to recall that, during the Cultural

Revolution, Xi Jinping’s father was purged, and later jailed in

1968, and he himself, as a child, was sent to a rural area to

work for several years.
Break-out in the U.S. Senate on Exposing

British-Saudi Hand in 9/11 Attacks
On May 17, the United States Senate passed unanimously, on

a voice vote, the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act

(JASTA), which would allow the families of victims of terrorist

attacks on U.S. territory to sue foreign states which sponsored

and funded the perpetrators. The bill applies in particular to

victims of the 9/11 attacks whose lawsuits against the Saudi

government for its implication fi led in New York have been



blocked by diplomatic immunity.

The text now goes to the House of Representatives. After the

Senate vote, the White House announced President Obama’s

intention to “kill” (veto) it, a position he has consistently defended.

Exposing his own policy, he claims that if the U.S. citizens

are authorized to sue foreign governments for supporting

terrorist attacks, then other countries could similarly take the

U.S. government or assets to court for the same reason.

Riyadh immediately reacted to the vote, sending a 104 page

memo to all members of the Congress, detailing their counterterrorism

efforts, but reportedly containing nary a word on

Saudi activities before 9/11.

The vote came amid a growing campaign to obtain declassifi



cation of the 28 pages of the Congressional Joint Inquiry

Report dealing with the role of the House of Saud and Saudi

individuals in backing the terrorists, which we have amply reported.

Since just prior to President Obama’s recent visit to

Riyadh, there has been an explosion of media coverage on the

subject, which strongly contributed to the Senate vote, as constituents

are up in arms over the cover-up.

The resolution introduced in the House by Walter Jones calling

on the White House to declassify those pages has now been

signed by 58 representatives, 16 of them in the past days. And

a growing number of Congressmen have requested the right

to read them.

For the record, the conditions for doing so are ridiculously

stringent: access to a tightly guarded underground vault, prohibition

to take notes or reveal the contents, etc. Virtually all

the elected offi cials who have read the pages call for their



disclosure.

What must also be brought fully to light is the role of the FBI

in sabotaging the investigations at the time, and still today, by

protecting its own informants, withholding crucial documents

and outright lying, in addition to the usual FBI incompetence.

In fact, FBI offi cials warned former Senator Bob Graham, who



headed the joint inquiry commission, to drop his campaign to

have the Saudi role exposed, or else.

However, Graham recognizes that the blame ultimately falls

on Obama, as he stated in an interview to the Daily Beast on

May 18: “A clear directive had gone out from the White House

to avoid embarrassing the Saudis because the CIA. FBI, Department

of Justice, Department of Treasury, Department of State,

all these agencies wouldn’t be playing off the same sheet of

music if the composer didn’t want it, and the composer lives at

1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.”

As Lyndon LaRouche has stressed from the beginning, behind

the Saudis, and the Turks today as well, there is the “British

Empire”, which has been running and funding all kinds of criminal

networks, including international terrorism, with funds

from oil proceeds. As concerns Saudi Arabia in particular, he

has stressed, there is really no separation between Riyadh and

London. That is what must be exposed.
Israeli Defense Minister Resigns As Netanyahu

Undermines New Effort for Peace Talks
The resignation of Israeli defense minister and former Chief of

the Israel Defense Force, Moshe Ya’alon from the government

of Benjamin Netanyahu signals that the latter and his British

masters are preparing a new major confl ict in South West Asia



that could very well go beyond the Israeli- Palestinian cycle of

violence.

At the press conference announcing his resignation, which

was actually forced upon him by Netanyahu, Ya’alon denounced

the government for its extremism and opportunism at the expense

of Israel’s security. Confi rming that charge, Netanyahu



named the notorious Avigdor Lieberman, who provocatively

lives in a West Bank settlement, to hold the defense portfolio,

as part of a deal that has brought the right-wing Yisrael

Beteinu party into the government, making it the most reactionary

in the history of Israel.

Less reported is that Ya’alon’s was fi nally forced out within



days of a major initiative launched by Egyptian President

Abdel Fattah al Sisi, who offered to mediate between Hamas

and the Palestinian authority as a fi rst step toward opening



Israel-Palestinian peace talks. This announcement, made in a

public speech in Cairo, was part of a broader initiative taken

in tandem with French President François Hollande, who has

proposed to hold a peace conference in Paris in June.

The move had the support of the Israel security establishment,

which sees the situation in the occupied territories on

the verge of an explosion. Israeli commentator Alex Fishman,

writing in Ynetnews.com (May 20) reported that there has

been secret discussion taking place between the Israelis and

Egyptians on this issue but with the resignation of Ya’alon this

initiative is all but dead.

According to well-known peace activist Yuri Avnery, the immediate

reason for kicking Ya’alon out may well have been

the controversy around the court martial of an Israeli soldier

for killing a wounded Palestinian by shooting him in the head,

which is a Class A war crime. While Ya’alon fully supported the

decision for the court martial, Netanyahu and several of the

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4 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER N°21 / 2016



government ministers as well as Lieberman openly supported

the soldier and rebuked the Defense Minister.

That led Ya’alon to charge during his press conference that

“Fundamentalist infl uences have taken over Likud”, the party



of Netanyahu. “This is not the same Likud that I joined…I

fought with all my strength against the phenomena of extremism,

violence and racism in Israeli society that threatens our

might and also permeates the IDF [Defense Forces], and has

already damaged it.”

Avnery, in his May 21 column in Gush Shalom, launched

a solemn warning against the racist bills already adopted or

discussed in the Knesset, which “strongly resembles the laws

adopted by the Reichstag in the early days of the Nazi regime.”

A similar warning had been issued by Deputy Chief of Stadff of

the IDS, Maj. Gen. Yair Golan.
9/11 Families Blast Barack Obama

for Blocking JASTA
The organization September 11th Advocates, created by families

of the victims of the attacks on the World Trade Center,

responded in their own statement to Barack Obama’s decision

to veto the JASTA. They take issue with the fact that the White

House said he would “seek additional changes to the measure

or try to get it killed in the House.” The organizations respectfully

requested that “the Administration refrain from using such

violent language when opposing legislation specifi cally designed



and intended to help victims of terrorism.

“For us, whose loved ones were killed, there is simply no

room for the word ‘killed’ in this dialogue. Obama and his

speechwriters and spokespeople ought to know that. Moreover,

we would also like to encourage President Obama to recalibrate

his priorities by placing American citizens and victims

of terrorism ahead of nations like the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

who fund terrorists that want to kill Americans. We are tired

of witnessing President Obama block our path to justice. We

do not appreciate such behavior being exhibited by a President

who has the audacity to pride himself on holding such lofty

principles of constitutionality, openness, transparency and accountability

-- not to mention being a recipient of the Nobel

Peace Prize.

“Furthermore, over the weekend, at Rutgers University,

President Obama stated the following: ‘In politics and in life,

ignorance is not a virtue. It’s not cool to not know what you’re

talking about. That’s not keeping it real or telling it like it is.’

In the spirit of keeping things real, we would like to draw Mr.

Obama’s attention to his own deliberate decision not to read

the 28 pages of the Joint Inquiry of Congress’ Final Report

into the 9/11 attacks. Perhaps if Mr. Obama had bothered to

read the 28 pages, he would more rightfully comprehend and

appreciate the need for JASTA. Ignorance is NOT bliss.... “
An Engineering Masterpiece:

Switzerland’s New Gotthard Tunnel
The 57 kilometer long, just completed Gotthard Base Tunnel

(GBT) in Switzerland is the world’s longest railway tunnel – and

also its deepest, at over 2 km underground The opening of the

twin tunnels for regular train service will take place in a major

ceremony on June 1, celebrating the completion of 17 years of

drilling across the base of the formidable Swiss Alps.

In a Europe which basically gave up on prodigious infrastructure

projects years ago in the name of speculation and deindustrialization,

this is a real breath of fresh air. The project – for all

of its apparent technical diffi culties – was not only completed



ahead of schedule, but within budget constraints! That shows

what it is possible to achieve when the will and the means are

there.

The GBT will now handle both freight and passenger traffi



c between Europe’s north and south, at maximal speeds of

250 km/hour. To cite just one advantage, travel time between

Zürich and Lugano will be shortened by 45 minutes, to just 2

hours.

The high-speed service is possible because, unlike the older

tunnels, the GBT is entirely fl at and straight with no curves,



and compared to the old system, it cuts the distance through

the Alps by 30 km.

The new twin tunnels will be able to handle up to 260 freight

trains per day, a signifi cant increase over the 180 trains that



now use the original tunnel. That will make it possible to reduce

the transportation of freight by road from the current

level of 1.2 million tons annually, by almost half, to 650,000

tons. As for passanger transit, it is expected to increase from

9,000 travellers to 15,000 by the year 2020.
Progress on the “Iron Silk Road” in Europe
The GBT is part of Corridor 1, the North-South connection of

the original Trans European Network original plan, but it will

also connect to two East-West corridors north and south of

the Alps, considerably reducing travelling time between Europe

and Asia. North of the Alps, the connection is already running,

as on April 21, the fi rst Chinese cargo train arrived in Lyon,



France, after travelling the 11,300 km from Yiwu (China), via

Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany and then on to

France (cf. SAS 17/16) . The trip took only 15 days, as against

the 45 days required per ship.

South of the Alps, the connection between Lyon and Turin,

Italy, via the Monceniso Basis Tunnel for high-speed rail, is being

built. That stretches eastwards through Trieste into the

southern corridor of the New Silk Road, and will be connected

to the northern Silk Road route through the GBT.

In that context, the “Forum of the New Silk Road Cities”

just opened its central European offi ce in Turin on May 5. It is



part of the MIR Initiative (Moscow, Istanbul, Rome), chaired

by Ernest Sultanov, and aims at involving cities on the main

nodal points of the Eurasian corridors, knowing that „mobility

is not just physical transportation, but also social and cultural

mobility.“

In Trieste, the eastern Italian terminal of the New Silk Road,

a conference organized by the European Bank for Reconstruction

and Development took place on May 21-22, with the participation

of Chinese dignitaries and government offi cials from



Italy and the Balkan countries, to discuss the opportunities offered

by the One Road One Belt perspective.

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