Thursday, 9 March 2017

EIR STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER 3N °10 / 2017

 To Make America Great Again,  LaRouche’s Four Laws Must Be Implemented Following President Donald Trump’s speech to the Congress on Feb. 28, the LaRouche Political Action Committee decided to launch a “Week of Action”, starting March 6, to build support among the U.S. population for implementing Lyndon LaRouche’s “Four Laws.” Indeed, if the new Administration really intends to make good on its promises to reverse the overall collapse in living standards in the United States, and the dramatic rise in death rates and in drug use, it will have to reject the policies imposed by financial interests centered in the City of London and Wall Street, and turn to what LaRouche has repeatedly presented as the alternative, based on the American System of physical economy. Those four laws begin with restoring Glass Steagall banking regulation, which would separate commercial from investment banking. This would not only put a stop to existing speculative swindles in financial trading, but would force a massive writeoff and write-down of non-performing loans, clearing the way for commercial banks to begin lending to producers again. This would require the Second Law, a return to a Hamiltonian credit system. Using the productive credit of such a system would allow the fulfillment of the Third and Fourth Laws, advancement to a new platform of infrastructure development, driven by investments in scientific frontiers, such as space exploration and nuclear fusion energy. Donald Trump, in his speech to the Congress, offered a hopeful vision for the period leading to the celebration, in 2026, of the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence of the United States. In that context, he spoke of the 1876 centennial celebration in Philadelphia, where “the country’s builders and artists and inventors showed off their wonderful creations.” On that occasion, we would add, the first telephone, the first typewriter, the first attempt at an electric light, and the automatic telegraph were presented, to the envy of other countries, all of which helped to spread the American system of economics throughout the world. This stunning exhibition of productivity had been made possible by the revival of protectionist policies adopted by Abraham Lincoln. Trump referred to Lincoln as a model for his economic nationalist efforts, saying that the latter had warned that “the abandonment of the protective policy by the American government (will) produce want and ruin among our people.” In this moment, when the majority of Americans are expe
riencing just that “want and ruin” warned of by Lincoln, LaRouche’s four laws must become the battle cry of the American people, until the Administration will be forced to adopt. Witch Hunt against Donald Trump  Takes on McCarthyist Dimensions In a series of tweets on March 4, President Trump claimed that the Obama Administration had tapped his phones in the run-up to the election. – which was met with the usual derision from the media, typified by the Washington Post and New York Times ( NYT ) claiming that he had cited “no evidence” to make his case. (By the way, the world is still waiting for the “evidence” on Russian hacking of the elections.) However, a brief perusal of recent stories in the NYT , which along with the Washington Post is leading the pack pushing for the President’s removal, shows that he has every reason to believe that a “Nixon/Watergate” style operation is being deployed against him. A March 1 article, “Obama Administration Rushed to Preserve Intelligence of Russian Election Hacking,” admits that Obama operatives “scrambled to spread information about Russian efforts to undermine the presidential election -- and about possible contacts between associates” of Trump and Russians. The article speaks of “intercepting communications”, i.e., wire-tapping, and states that documents were circulated to some in Congress and, “in some cases, among European allies,” which included classified information! In his tweets, Trump referred to this as a “Nixon/Watergate” action. Other leaks have emerged that the Obama Administration went before a FISA Court seeking approval for wire taps of the Trump Tower in New York. An earlier article, in the Jan. 19 NYT,  reported that U.S. intelligence agencies “are examining intercepted communications and financial transactions into possible links between Russian officials and associates of President-elect Donald J. Trump, including his former campaign chairman.” Later in the article, the authors state, “It is not clear whether the intercepted communications had anything to do with Mr. Trump’s campaign, or Mr. Trump himself.” Reports show there was extensive surveillance targeting Trump allies -- such as General Michael Flynn and Sen. Jeff Sessions, now Attorney General – before and even more so after the election. The drumbeat against Russia is overwhelming, as is the rush to demonize anyone suspected of having ties to Russian offi
EIR STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER2 N°10 / 2017
cials. Despite all the accusations and allegations, not a shred of evidence has ever been presented that “the Russians” or Vladimir Putin meddled in the U.S. election. This is every bit reminiscent of the very dark days in the 1950s when the deranged alcoholic, Sen. Joseph McCarthy, together with intelligence services, led the witch-hunt against suspected Soviet “communist” moles in the government and everywhere else in America. It is also clear that former President Obama played a major role in launching the witch-hunt, and continues to help run the “Color Revolution” against his successor. London’s Daily Mail on March 1 cited an Obama family friend saying the former president’s goal “is to oust Trump from the presidency either by forcing his resignation or through his impeachment.” According to this article, Valerie Jarrett, who has been identified as Obama’s controller, and who just moved into his Washington, D.C. mansion/war-room, convinced him he had no choice but to remove Trump “if he wanted to save his legacy.” Washington and Moscow Inch  towards Joint Operations against ISIS While the ongoing assault against the Trump Administration’s alleged communications with Russian officials during the campaign and transition have thrown a major roadblock in the way of a comprehensive “reset” of US-Russian relations, there is growing evidence that one of the cornerstones of that cooperation -- joint operations against the Islamic State -- is moving ahead.  And once again, it has demonstrated the strategic acumen of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Over last week, Syrian government, Russian and American forces all converged on the northern Syrian town of Manbij to forestall a Turkish military assault to take the town, which is in the hands of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), made up predominantly of Syrian Kurdish fighters. In a deal that has set the stage for the long-anticipated assault on the Islamic State “capital” of Raqqa, the Russian government brokered an agreement between the SDF and the Syrian government, under which the Kurdish forces are supposed to leave the city and turn over control to the Syrian government, which has already been given control of some surrounding areas.  Russia has again played the crucial diplomatic role, including by drawing Turkey into its efforts to end the war, in alignment with Iran. Moreover, on Feb. 15, talks were held in Moscow with a delegation of Kurdish leaders, which reflected growing direct contact with Syrian opposition forces, as part of the Russian efforts to support a diplomatic solution complementing the military victories on the ground in Syria in particular. Since the end of the Obama Administration, which had indirectly supported the jihadis in Syria, there have been increased calls for intensified US-Russian coordination, as we reported, . There are sound military reasons for a deconfliction upgrade, in addition to the political reasons. With ISIS under assault in both Syria and Iraq (where the siege of Mosul is slowly progressing), the target zones for bombing are being reduced continuously, which means that Russian and American fighter planes are operating in an ever smaller theater of operation. On Feb. 27, Defense Secretary James Mattis provided President Trump and the National Security Council with his 30-day study recommendations on how to modify the war on the Islamic State. While full disclosure of the proposal is yet to be made public, the basic contours are known:  the US should continue to support the Kurds and Syrian Arabs who comprise the SDF, who have been the most successful fighters against ISIS, and should avoid a military buildup for a full-scale US invasion of Raqqa, but provide equipment and assistance to the SDF.
On March 4, the first round of the new Geneva peace talks concluded with all sides acknowledging that some progress had been made. Syria is now the clear testing ground for a new stage of USRussian cooperation, and while there are limitations on how far the public reconciliation and partnership can move at this moment -- given the outrageous witch hunt against all things Russian in the US (cf. above) -- it is of monumental importance. If nothing else, the on-the-ground heightened coordination can help bring the Syria tragedy to an end. Cheminade Blasts EU Agricultural Policy The political system in France continues to implode at an astounding rate: the front-runner of just a few weeks ago, François Fillon, was then dropped by the bosses of his own party before finally being supported by the Political Committee on March 6, while the European Parliament lifted the immunity of Marine Le Pen, and Emmanuel Macron, the candidate of the financial Establishment, is presented in the unlikely role of the “white knight”. A welcome contrast to the muck is provided by Jacques Cheminade, who sticks to the “heavy issues” -- a two-tiered banking system, leaving the euro, working closely with the BRICS on win-win economic cooperation. Unfortunately, the media are not terribly interested in such issues. Nonetheless, the candidate was at the large Agricultural Fair in Paris on Feb. 27, where he took part in a round table with other farm experts on the future of agriculture organized by Agri TV. He also gave short statements to BFM TV , Public Sénat (radio and TV of the Senate), and to RMC , and had a chance to discuss the agricultural plank of his program with many farmers and farm leaders. Members of his campaign staff were at the gates of the fair to distribute a statement by Cheminade calling on “producers and consumers to unite against financial manipulations”. The takedown of the farming sector, he wrote, was neither an accident nor a mistake, it was pre-programmed, as a result of market which is controlled by international speculators, by the owners of gigantic farms and by the major supermarket chains. The Forum de l’agriculture responsable et respectueuse de l’environnement also posted his replies to three questions submitted to all presidential candidates on March 5. As to the main challenge that French agriculture will have to take up in the coming years, Cheminade proposed to make farming once again “a great trade of the future”. “We are witnessing the destruction of agriculture, because it was developed along the ultra-liberal model, subjected to short-term financial profits at the expense of the farmers and the quality of the products. The farming sector was the victim of finances gone wild, a financial sector which is decoupled from the real economy. I defend a productive but reasonable agriculture, free from the pressure of blind productivism. “For that, public regulation (in the form of quotas, intervention stocks, gurarantee fund…) of all sectors of farm production is indispensable, either on the European or the French level. The time for transactions on the financial markets is very different from the time needed for farming.” Asked about the major points of his program to develop environment-friendly agriculture, Cheminade answered: “If farmers have prices allowing a good return, they will be able to focus on producing quality goods. We need to relieve the pressure on the farmers so they can reconcile agriculture and the environment.
EIR STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER 3N °10 / 2017
“We also need to prevent the disappearance of the small or medium-sized family farm model family, because they are competitive and enable the development of all our territories.” Chinese Worried over Global Effects  of EU Policy toward Greece The Global Times ran on Feb. 22 a commentary titled “A Greek crisis could impact China’s Market”, by Prof. Liang Haiming, chief economist of China Silk Road iValley Research Institute, a Guangzhou-based think tank. While everyone is preoccupied by Donald Trump’s tweets, Liang writes in the Chinese Communist Party daily, there are “hidden dangers from Europe, especially regarding the Greek debt problem or even a fresh outbreak of Greece debt crisis, which could impact countries across the globe, including China.” The Chinese expert on the Silk Road reviews the unsustainability of the Greek debt which could reach 200% of GDP with zero chance of the economy “growing” out of the crisis, contrary to what the country’s creditors assert. That, in his view, has “become a major hazard for this year’s global financial markets”. Furthermore if countries decide to leave the Eurozone it “would push the euro to the verge of collapse. Letting the euro fall to pieces would further hit international financial markets, including China.” Liang also fears the Europeans will deal with the crisis by “introducing negative interest rates” and further quantitative easing, even though QE has failed both in the US and Japan. China has developed close relations with Greece, in particular because the Port of Piraeus serves as the principal entry point for Chinese exports to Central and Eastern Europe. Beyond its purchase of a controlling interest in the Piraeus Port Authority, China is also encouraging Chinese companies and banks to invest in Greece. Therefore, they have good cause to be concerned about the unsustainability of the austerity policy being imposed by Brussels. The latest statistics show that poverty in Greece increased by a huge 40% between 2008 and 2015, and food purchases fell by 18% from 2009 to 2016 and are projected to decline another 2-3% compared this year. On Feb. 28, the Chairman of the China Development Bank, Hu Huaibang, was in Athens where he noted that his bank, one of the world’s largest development lenders, has prioritized the expansion of its activities in Europe, particularly in Greece. He met with the chairman of the Greek Public Power Corporation, to discuss cooperation between the two organizations for the development of energy projects in Greece and in the Balkans. While China has invested investments in Greece over the last five years than any other foreign investor, the Chinese are aware that their input could never suffice to turn around the Greek economy, let alone prevent the huge debt time bomb Greece’s creditors have created. Russia Moves to Stabilize Libya The stabilization of Libya will be the next testing ground for US-Russia cooperation. The country is currently split into the eastern side (Cyrenaica) controlled by National Army leader  Khalifa Haftar and the western side (Tripolitania) formally under Prime Minister Fayez Al-Serraj, but in reality in the hands of local warlords tied to the Muslim Brotherhood and jihadist militias. Those warlords are against any national state structure, including a national army. But Libya cannot be stabilized without a centralized authority, including police and military forces. Currently, the most viable
candidate to do the job is Gen. Haftar, who is backed by Egypt and Russia. He also spent many years in the United States, and has ties to US military and intelligence circles. The Wall Street Journal of March 2 quoted Russian sources claiming that there have been contacts between US and Russian officials to discuss the future of Libya, focusing on the role to be played by Gen. Haftar, and the fight against Islamic State. However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova denied any such contacts. Meanwhile, Russia has built a pattern of economic deals in the last months involving all parties to the potential settlement: Egypt, Turkey and Qatar (which have influence on the warlords in Tripolitania), Italy and, of course, both Libyan factions, represented by Sarraj and by Haftar. Over the past months, the Russian oil company Rosneft has: * Signed a deal with the Libyan National Oil Corporation (Feb. 21, 2017) to help rebuild and expand NOC capabilities, and to purchase Libyan oil; * Bought a 30% share in the exploitation of the Shorouk offshore gas field in Egypt, the largest ever discovered in the Mediterranean, from Italy’s ENI which discovered the field and had held 90% of the concession. * Sold 19% of its own shares to Glencore and Qatar sovereign Fund, in an operation financed by Banca Intesa Moscow. That last contract in particular has been attacked by City of London outlets ( Reuters, Financial Times ) as a geopolitical operation. The British have alleged that the $5.2 billion loan extended by Banca Intesa to the Glencore-Qatar joint venture was a cover for a fake privatization and that most of the money came from the Russian VTB bank. The FT even reported that Italian regulators were probing the deal, but Intesa has denied. Moreover, Rosneft had developed good relations with ExxonMobil, which was chaired until recently by the current US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Egypt, the major regional power interested in the stabilization of Libya, has improved its relations with Russia since the rise to power of President Al Sisi. At the beginning of March, a delegation of the Russian Ministry of Industry and Trade was in Cairo for a two-day visit to discuss the proposed Russian industrial zone in Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone, a proposal dating back to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Egypt in 2015. The First Phase of Siemens’ Megaproject  in Egypt Inaugurated Egypt symbolically inaugurated on March 2 the first phase of its megaproject, involving a complex of Siemens gas power plants in three different locations, Beni Suef, Borollos and New Capital. The first phase adds 4,800 MW to the national grid. This megaproject was actively promoted by President Al-Sisi in 2015 as part of his program for rapid development of the Egyptian power supply. Siemens, together with two local companies, then went on to break all records in modern power plant construction by connecting those 4.8 GW of new capacity to the grid only 18 months after the signing of the contract. It represents the largest single contract Siemens has signed in years, amounting to more than €6 billion. The entire project, according to the Siemens manager in Cairo, Sherif Kotb, will be completed by May 2018, to provide a total output of 14,4 GW, boosting total production by 45%. The three-plant complex will then supply electricity to some 45 million Egyptians, almost half of the total population. It will
EIR STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER4 N°10 / 2017
become the largest gas-fired combined-cycle power station in the world. President Al-Sisi and visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel watched the symbolic opening via video conference from the presidential Ittihadiya Palace. Siemens secured 60% of the financing and the rest was provided by the two local partners. Kotb noted that the new plants will enable Eygpt to save $1.6 billion dollars worth of fuel per year. Overall, the job creation effect for Egyptians is 25,000 workers and engineers. In addition, Siemens announced that it had concluded an agreement between with the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) to create and operate an occupational training center for the workers. Construction is scheduled to begin in 2017, with the facility scheduled to open in 2018. Al Sisi’s gas power strategy is related to the recent discovery of a large natural gas field in the Mediterranean. At the same time, Egypt plans to build its first nuclear power complex at Dabaa, carried out in cooperation with Russia’s Rosatom. Argentina Scientists: “A Country Without Scientific Development is not Sovereign” While Argentina’s neocon President Mauricio Macri literally barricaded himself inside the national Congress building on March 1 to inaugurate the opening session of the Legislative Assembly, young scientists and university researchers mobilized in a national strike all around the country, holding classes, labs and workshops in public plazas to educate citizens on the value of scientific education and research, and to protest the slashing of the science and-technology budget. Scientists affiliated with the National Science Research and Technology Council (Conicet), Argentina’s premier institution for the education of young scientists, were joined by the Association of State Workers (ATE) to demand a budget increase generally, and for Conicet in particular, whose grants for doctoral and post-doctoral study he has ordered slashed by 50%. “A country without scientific development is not sovereign,” said Nicolás Ramos, a Conicet doctoral candidate, who told Info Blanco Sobre Negro internet daily that the assault on science is related to the “profound change in the country’s economic model,” imposed by Macri and his neoliberal cabinet. The state, rather than serving as the driver of scientific progress, is intended to serve only as a guarantor of big business, Ramos underscored. This is a reversal of the policy advanced by former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner and her late husband and predecessor Néstor Kirchner who viewed educating scientists as part of a national mission to industrialize and develop the country. While the tremendously unpopular Macri addressed Congress, Conicet researchers held a science fair in Buenos Aires, while their counterparts in many other provinces organized similar activities. In San Juan province, scientists held a public dishwashing event, likening Macri to former Wall Street-owned Finance Minister Domingo Cavallo, who in the 1990s stated that Argentina had no need of scientists and told them to go out and find jobs as dishwashers. Thousands of scientists left the country at the time. The University of Buenos Aires (UBA) Geophysics Department had a stand on how earthquakes are produced and how to respond to them; the UBA Medical School held workshops on cardiology and other health threats, and the National Atomic Energy Commission (CNEA) had a stand on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The Endangered Young Scientists group had
an exhibit with a timeline demonstrating the time and years of investment it takes to educate a scientist, warning “that budget cuts not only imply expulsion of science workers, but also the end of many lines of investigation.” Major Qatari Daily Features  LaRouche’s Strategic Outlook Dr. Ahmed Kedidi, a former Tunisian diplomat and guest lecturer in many Arab strategic studies institutions, published a syndicated op-ed on Feb. 28, 2017 in the leading Qatari daily Al-Sharq titled “The Dream of American Politician Lyndon LaRouche Becomes True One Third of a Century Later”. It was also taken up in several other Arabic newspapers and websites. A long-time friend of Helga and Lyndon LaRouche, Dr. Kedidi participed in many Schiller Institute conferences in the 1980s and ’90s, and has also signed a number of petitions circulated by the Institute. He currently resides in Qatar. His article begins by noting that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had recently called for a new world order to replace the old system, “known as the transatlantic system, stressing that the latter has reached its expiry date.” China’s President has expressed the same hope, proposing to replace that “decaying system with the ‘New Silk Road’ project.” Moreover, Kedidi writes, President Trump has indicated an inclination towards “changing the rules and aims of the world order”. “But what most observers missed is that this is the alternative that was proposed to the leaders of the world by Lyndon LaRouche, the American thinker, politician and economist.... who keeps exposing, in spite of passing the age of 90, the misdeeds of the transatlantic system which is dedicated to looting and war.” Lyndon LaRouche was the only one, Kedidi recalls, who warned of the collapse of the international financial and monetary system, and “prescribed the remedy more than a third of a century ago... He is a fierce resistance fighter against financial speculators and their manipulations, because he has always been an advocate of an international system based on physical production of wealth, employment, justice and economic welfare, technological progress, commerce, and opposing the tyranny and imperialism of the transcontinental banks and corporations.” Those views have been published for more than 30 years, the author explains, in the Executive Intelligence Review , and in his newsletter targeting the ruling elites, the Strategic Alert Service , and through the American and European parties that propagate his ideas and call for listening to his voice. “I still believe that he [LaRouche] is one of the American personalities with the most far-sighted vision, the fairest, and the closest person to the issues of the oppressed people of the world. Therefore, he is the most competent to bring back to the American nation the respect and dignity which it has lost in the past decade. I never give up on the possibility of changing the U.S. foreign policy towards the issues of the Arab world, because this is a very likely proposition.”
E.I.R. STRATEGIC ALERT       
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