E.I.R.STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Volume 32, No. 41, October 11, 2018

E.I.R.STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
Volume 32, No. 41, October 11, 2018

The “Singapore Model” of Dialogue  over Conflict Transforms Relations in Asia The major nations of Asia have embarked on a policy of solving long-standing disputes through joint economic development and dialogue, rather than confrontation. This is a fundamental change, driven both by China’s New Silk Road policies and by the manifest failure of traditional Western geopolitics (cf. SAS
 37-40/18). The new approach has become known as the “Singapore model” of diplomacy, in reference to the first historic summit between US President Donald Trump and North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un last June in Singapore – the first ever between the leaders of those two nations (cf. SAS 25/18). Both heads of state have expressed their willingness to hold a second summit before the end of the year. On the issue of denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has engaged in multilateral diplomacy. After talks in Tokyo on Oct. 6 with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Foreign Minister Taro Kono, he headed to Pyongyang on the 7th for his fourth trip, where he held what he called “productive” meetings with Kim Jong-un and one of his most trusted aides, Kim Young Chol, a former intelligence official. From there, the US Secretary of State went to Seoul to inform President Moon Jae-in of the progress made, including Kim’s agreement to open a nuclear testing site to inspections. Russian diplomacy has also been very active, in coordination with Beijing. On Oct. 8, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Igor Morgulov met in Moscow with his North Korean counterpart Choe Son Hui, who had just arrived from Beijing, and the two held a trilateral meeting the next day with China’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs. In addition, chairman Kim is scheduled to visit Moscow at the end of this year, and Russian President Vladimir Putin has reportedly accepted an invitation from his South Korean counterpart to visit Seoul next year. Against that dynamic, the forces of the dwindling British Empire continue to rail. Thus, London’s Foreign Office and National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) released on Oct. 4 a long list of “cyber crimes” the Russian military intelligence agency GRU purportedly committed over the past years. The hoax has been closely coordinated with the Dutch government as well as the US Department of Justice, with the German government now adding its own two cents to the list. Among the crimes is the hacking of the World Anti-Doping Agency WADA, the Democratic National Committee, the metro in Kiev, Russia’s central bank, [sic], and the list goes on.
Another sour note in international relations was sounded by US Vice President Mike Pence, in a speech on Oct. 4 wildly attacking China for all kinds of practices – setting up a surveillance state (but no word on the NSA); repressing religious freedom, stealing American technologies, meddling in the US elections even much more than Russia (!), etc. The Chinese government sharply refuted the charges, and the semi official Global Times remarked laconically that the speech was made “primarily for the midterm elections”. War and Peace at Stake  in Mid-Term Elections in the United States With the critical U.S. mid-term elections only four weeks away, it would be wise to consider the words of German defense expert, Willy Wimmer, who represented the Christian Democratic Union in the Bundestag and served as an Assistant Defense Minister. On Sept. 3, Wimmer warned that if the Democrats take back the House of Representatives on Nov. 6, and use their majority to impeach President Donald Trump, his removal would be a prelude to nuclear war against Russia. It would be “the breaking of the dam which is keeping the peace alive,” he said (cf. SAS 37/18). In a webcast several days later, and in subsequent statements, Helga Zepp LaRouche concurred with Wimmer’s assessment. She pointed out that in spite of the fierce opposition to Trump’s intention to work together with nations the war faction identifies as “enemies” of the U.S. -- most importantly Russia and China -- the President continues to emphasize his desire for cooperation with them. The investigation into “Russiagate” conducted by Special Counsel Robert Mueller, after well over one year of intense probes, has failed to produce any evidence that Trump owes his election to Russian interference, or that he colluded with the Russians. But that has not stopped those whose world was turned upside down by Trump’s election and the defeat of their chosen successor, Hillary Clinton. Leading figures of the intelligence community, in collaboration with their British allies, continue to organize a putsch in Washington, while Democratic Party hacks are operating through the “Resist” network to try and engineer a Democratic sweep in the midterms, by attacking Trump for everything and anything. The most recent example was the effort to use the hearings on Trump’s nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, to revive the line that the President is against 
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women’s rights, and that he, like Kavanaugh, is a sexual predator.  Democratic leaders rallied behind vague testimony against the nominee, allegedly about a sexual assault some 36 years ago, to demand the Senate reject the nomination. In the absence of any evidence or corroboration of the charges against him, they argued that not accepting the stories shows Republican indifference to the brutalization of women. But polls show they may have overplayed their hand. An FBI investigation found no evidence to back the allegations, while there has been a sharp blowback against the Democrats’ insistence that there can be no presumption of innocence in the face of accusations -- a position which violates one of the most important principles of the American legal system (cf. below). Moreover, much of the population understood that the furor was never really about the person or the integrity of Brett Kavanaugh, that was used as a means to attack and weaken Donald Trump. In the end, Kavanaugh was confirmed on Oct. 6, despite the furious Democratic assault, which included stirring up Jacobin mobs to threaten and attack Republican Senators. LaRouchePAC has presented a campaign strategy which would reverse the coup, and enable Trump to fulfill his 2016 campaign pledges -- which he reiterated in his UNGA address last month -- for the U.S. to end regime change policies, and restore sovereignty as the basis of international relations, in trade as well as in domestic and international economic/financial policies. Kesha Rogers and Senator Collins  Denounce Perversion of Judicial Process A crucial campaign for the House of Representatives is being waged by LaRouche Democrat Kesha Rogers in the 9th District of Texas, one of the poorest in the state. She is running as an independent because, as she explained in a recent interview on OAN , “both parties have failed to address the real issues in this election,” which means putting an end to the war policy, poverty alleviation and job creation. Her Democratic opponent, incumbent Al Green, is leading the drive to impeach President Trump, even though, as he admits, there are no valid Constitutional grounds to remove him from office. As long as  the Democrats campaign only against Trump, and with no other agenda to defend, the party will self-destruct, warned Kesha Rogers, who twice won the Democratic primary for Congress in another district in Texas in 2010 and 2012. On the controversy over the nomination of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court, Rogers noted that voters in her district are “disgusted with the whole fiasco”, considered to be more “shenanigans” mounted by greedy politicians on both sides for purely opportunistic reasons, rather than addressing the needs of the population. But she also pointed to the fundamental legal questions involved: “What happened to due process of the law, what happened to innocent until proven guilty?” She also cited renowned Constitutional law professor Alan Dershowitz of Harvard, a long-time Democrat, who has denounced the “sexual mccarthyism” surrounding the whole affair. Those issues were also addressed very competently by Senator Susan Collins, a moderate Republican, in explaining why she had decided to vote in favor of Kavanaugh’s nomination, after an in-depth study of the question. She emphasized that from the beginning “special interest groups” had transformed the Senate’s solemn deliberative process into something resembling “a gutter-level political campaign.” These groups were ready to mobilize against whoever Trump would nominate, regardless, with one group tellingly sending out a mass mailing which said, “We oppose President Trump’s nomination of XX to the U.S. Supreme Court.” In that 
context, she sharply attacked the way that Dr. Blasey Ford, who accused the 17 year old Kavanaugh of attempting to rape her, had been “victimized” by her partisan advocates. The Senator from Maine further explained that throughout the process there were deliberate misrepresentations of Kavanaugh’s judicial opinions and his views, which were no sooner knocked down and debunked than they appeared again through social media. This resulted in what Collins described as a “frenzy,” with more dark money spent on defeating a judicial candidate than at any time in American history. She herself, in making her decision, had reviewed every single one of Kavanaugh’s judicial decisions, as well as his law review articles and speeches, and met with the Judge personally for three hours. She found that the narrative produced by special interest groups about his judicial views was false, as he had favored checking executive powers, and in one case she cited, he ruled that the Bush Administration military tribunal convictions of terrorists were unlawful. US Military Will Not Act Against Iran In Syria General Joseph Votel, the commander of U.S. Central Command, told reporters at the Pentagon via video-teleconference on Oct. 4, that the U.S. military has no orders to act against Iran forces or their proxies inside Syria. He argued, however, that the mere presence of the U.S. military in Syria will impose limits on what the Iranians can do. On the risk of a military confrontation with Iran, he does not see it. “I think the President has made it very clear that the Iranian regime needs to cease its destabilizing behavior and policies that spread violence and human misery throughout the Middle East. The principal way that we are approaching that right now is through diplomatic and economic pressure,” he added. Votel’s choise of wording echoed very closely that of James Jeffrey, U.S. special representative for Syria, who said in a media briefing on Sept. 27 in New York that nobody was going to “force” the Iranians out of Syria. Rather, he said, it is the U.S. expectation that at the end of the political process in Syria, the new government would ask the Iranians to leave. Rome Rejects EU Line on Chinese Investments The first meeting of the Italian government’s new “Task Force China” (cf. SAS 38/18) took place in Rome on Oct. 1, under the chairmanship of Undersecretary for Economic Development Michele Geraci, and with the participation of the Chinese Ambassador in Rome Li Ruiyu. The aim of the Task Force, which is made up of of several working groups, each led by two coordinators, one in Italy and the other in China, is to boost economic relations with China. Geraci commented that he was “very satisfied” with the commitment shown by the participants, including members of government, businessmen, academicians, etc. Although it is not difficult to “enhance bilateral exchanges on economy and culture between the two countries, based on our common ground,” he said, “for us it is still an unprecedented move to build a China Task Force.” In fact, this is the first time that Italy has set up an exclusive systematic approach to one specific country by different governmental departments, Geraci pointed out. For Italy, the immense domestic market China has developed, “demands more and more quality goods and represents opportunities Italy should not miss, both in terms of exports and in attracting investments.” The Undersecretary also stressed that the government will give “stimulus and a direction, but the input of individuals in the 
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various working groups will determine the success of the Task Force and its effectiveness in the effort by our government to seize the opportunities offered by China today.” He concluded with a quote from Confucius: “‘When the wind of change blows, one person builds walls, another builds windmills.’ I hope that every working group sees itself as a windmill in the service of Italy in its relations with China.” Coverage of the event in Bloomberg correctly characterized the Task Force China meeting as a “Blow to EU Efforts to Keep Its Distance”. The authors note that “Italy’s government is scrapping the previous administration’s efforts to limit Chinese investment in strategic sectors in favor of fostering relations with Beijing by volunteering for a role in China’s vast global infrastructure program.” Italy would welcome Chinese investments in sectors such as railways, airlines, space and culture. Geraci confirmed to the news agency, his opposition to a common EU policy on screening outside investments, noting that “We have 28 different economies with 28 different interests.”  However, Italy will push to do business with China “within the scope of our existing alliances with the EU, with NATO.” Geraci also dismissed fears of the so-called “debt trap” by observing that “our European friends already have a lot of Italian debt” and that a G7 country of the size of Italy need not fear Chinese investments. New German Book Hits War Policy of the Trans-Atlantic Order Why We Need Peace and Friendship with Russia is the title of a new book in German newsstands, with articles by 25 prominent German authors, including journalist Gabriele Krone-Schmalz, who is considered a leading expert on Russian politics, and Willy Wimmer, a former assistant defense minister of Germany. The book was edited by Adelheid Bahr, the widow of the late Egon Bahr, who was one of the leading Social Democratic architects of the development of cooperation and dialogue with Russia in the early 1970s, the renowned “ Ostpolitik ” which was an important step towards entering the era of detente between NATO and the USSR. The article by Krone-Schmalz is of particular interest, because she sees in the aggressiveness of the trans-Atlantic world model the main source of problems posed to peace in Europe and globally. “The world economic order no longer deserves the term order . Aggressive speculation and a mixture of perversion and cynicism has unhinged everything. Stock exchanges that are like houses of cards and will collapse at the slightest puff of wind, have replaced the real generation of value and facts. Psychology, doubtful rankings and opinion-making decide on the existence or the bankruptcy of people, companies and sometimes even of states.” This degeneration of economics and finances finds its complement in the geopolitical attitude of the West against Russia, she warns, and its focus on the demonization of Russian President Vladimir Putin. In Krone-Schmalz’s view, there can be no substitute for creating a different world order, which must necessarily be done in cooperation with Russia, the country, after all, which has the largest landmass in the world. Although the former Moscow correspondent is treated as a pariah by the mainstream media in Germany, known to be russophobic, her writings and speeches at German-Russian events attract a large community of Germans, who share her view that cooperation with Russia is indispensable for maintaining peace.  Willy Wimmer in his article blames the West and NATO for a systematic buildup of confrontation and for a global encirclement strategy against Russia ever since the nominal end of the 
Cold War. This, he charges, has destroyed all the achievements made between the West and the Soviet bloc during the era of dialogue and detente before 1990-1991. In a recent commentary, Wimmer also warned of the danger of an impeachment of Donald Trump (cf. above). A Solution to Lake Chad Crisis  Discussed at the United Nations Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari, in his address to the UN General Assembly on Sept. 25, discussed the factors driving terrorism and migration in Africa, particularly singling out the “consequences of a drastically shrunk Lake Chad and the parching up of otherwise fertile arable lands”. He thus called for “a rededicated international engagement to accelerate the recovery efforts in the Lake Chad Basin to address the root causes of the conflicts in the region.” The lake, he explained, was a “major source of livelihood” for the more than 45 million inhabitants of the region, but due its shrinking they have been rendered “poor and vulnerable to the activities of extremists and terrorist groups. The instability thus caused in the sub-region intensified internal displacements leading, among other consequences, to intense economic competition especially between farmers and herdsmen.” The one efficient way to replenish Lake Chad, as we have often reported, is the great Transaqua project which would transfer water from the Congo River Basin to the lake, building navigable canals and hydropower plants along the way, and thus transforming the entire region in the process. While President Buhari did not mention Transaqua by name, the project was discussed in a Sept. 27 meeting on the sidelines of the UNGA between the President and a delegation from the Italian Senate, led by the first black man elected to that body, Toni Iwobi. Since his election last March, Senator Iwobi has been an active supporter of the Transaqua project. At the International Conference on Lake Chad in Abuja last February, which the Strategic Alert attended, the Italian government finally committed to co-finance the feasibility study for the project, and that solution was endorsed by the Lake Chad Basin Committee and by the eight participating heads of state and government (cf. SAS 10/18). As Buhari’s special advisor Femi Adesina reported in a Sept. 28 statement, the meeting with the Nigerian-born Italian senator discussed issues such as how to curb illegal migration through investments in Africa, and the recharge of the Lake Chad via inter-basin water transfer. “Africa doesn’t need charity, but collaboration to develop,” the statement quoted Senator Iwobi as saying. In response, President Buhari attributed irregular migration from developing to developed countries to a lack of security, education, and healthcare, among other factors. Buhari “used the opportunity to laud Italians for their respect for the human race irrespective of color or geo-political leaning,” according to the Daily Nigerian . Russia and India Commit to Cooperation on Advanced and High-Tech Industries Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi met for talks in New Delhi on Oct. 5, as part of the 19th India-Russia bilateral annual summit. The two leaders discussed closer cooperation in the fight against international terrorism, as well as coordinating activities within the UN, BRICS, and the G20. They also noted with satisfaction that bilateral trade increased by 21% last year, and then gained another 20% in the first sev
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en months of 2018. Several significant military and economic deals were signed on the sidelines of the summit, including a contract for the sale of the Russian S-400 air defense systems. Moreover, Russian Railways (RZD) and Indian Railways signed a memorandum to set up a joint operator of rail cargo traffic via the North-South corridor, a ccording to reports. That international corridor will transport cargo from India and Persian Gulf countries to western and northern Europe via Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia, and cut current travel time by two or three times. President Putin also addressed a meeting of over 100 heads of major Russian and Indian companies, in the presence of Narendra Modi, where he stressed the importance of high-tech cooperation between the two countries. He and Modi both agreed, he said, to “prioritize the development of trade and investment ties between Russia and India”, of which a crucial aspect is the creation of “new technological and investment alliances primarily in advanced and high-tech industries.” Among the latter, he mentioned cooperation in aviation, space, medicine and pharmaceuticals. Importantly, the Russian President welcomed “our Indian partners” to collaborate on the development of the Arctic routes, which China is already involved in as well. Russia is currently building eight nuclear-powered ships to travel that route. Nuclear energy is a traditional area of cooperation between the two countries, as two Russian reactors are already in operation and four more are under construction or planned. During the latest visit, a pact was reached with Rosatom for the possible construction of six new nuclear power reactors of Russian design on a site in India. The two countries also intend to enhance nuclear cooperation in third countries and to jointly develop new nuclear technologies. New Action Group Founded in Sweden  to Promote BRI “If you want to get rich, build a road first!” With this ancient Chinese proverb, moderator Hussein Askary opened the 2nd China-Sweden Business Forum on Sept. 28, 2018 in Stockholm. The event, hosted by China-Sweden Business Council (CSBC) and the newly created association called the Belt & Road Executive Group in Sweden (BRIX), was focused on China’s Belt & Road Initiative. In his opening address, H.E. the Ambassador of the People’s Republic of China, Gui Congyou, received spontaneous applause when he announced that the first New Silk Road cargo shipment from Sweden to China had been sent off the week before. A train with containers had left the community Insjön in the county Dalarna for the long route via Gothenburg and Hamburg to Ganzhou International Port bringing high-quality wood for a furniture producer in the Jiangxi province in Southern China. While Swedish authorities and media have largely ignored the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), this Forum provided the insights necessary to change that attitude. In fact, the BRIX was created as an action group following the success of a seminar on the BRI held last May in the Swedish capital under the aegis of the Schiller Institute and the CSBC, with the participation of the Ambassadors of China and Pakistan and the Chargé d’Affaires of the South Africa (cf. SAS 33/18). A key aspect of the BRI is that it is not only about links to China, but promotes global connectivity, as was shown by Stephen Brawer, BRIX vice Chairman, in his presentation. All continents should eventually be connected, including with links to the Americas and Australia. The BRI should not be seen only as a “practical” transport system for trade, Ms. Kitty Smyth underlined in the next pre
sentation. Ms. Smyth, a U.K. strategy and PR senior adviser for Sino-European public relations, underlined that the initiative also has a philosophical dimension of creating harmony, “to foster a new type of international relations”, and “forge partnerships of dialogue with no confrontation and of friendship rather than alliance”. Typical misunderstandings of the BRI among Swedish business circles were dissected by Ali Farmandeh, chairman of the China-Sweden Business Council. He stressed that among the 70 nations that have joined the BRI, there are also neighbors in Europe, that offer opportunities for Sweden. Working with China is sometimes challenging to the old world due to cultural differences, as Ying Wu, a former Student of Royal Technical School (KTH) in Stockholm and now CEO of SinceUs, explained to the over 100 participants. She brought up many insightful and humorous examples of problems she has met in assisting Swedish clients to enter and expand in the Chinese market of 437 million e-commerce shoppers. For more information, visit the BRIX’ new website at www. brixsweden.com. Schiller Institute Representatives  Promote “16+1” Cooperation in Bucharest If the European Union finally decides to take up China’s offer to fully participate in the Belt and Road Initiative, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe, rather than being relegated to a marginal status in today’s EU policy, will take on increasing importance as hubs for trade and other exchanges between Europe and Asia. Already now, China has contributed to important infrastructure improvements in those 16 countries in the framework of the “16+1 format”. These perspectives were discussed by Elke and Klaus Fimmen of the German Schiller Institute with many participants at the Romanian-Chinese Academic Roundtable that took place in Bucharest on Sept. 20 and 21. The event was organized by the Institute of World Economy of the Romanian Academy together with four institutes of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) under the banner “Challenges of Adjusting to a Changing Global Economy in the 21st century.” During the first session, Elke Fimmen spoke on “The Spirit of the New Silk Road -- A Global Revolution in Creativity and Progress.” She quoted Chinese President Xi Jinping who on many occasions has stressed the importance of science and technology for overcoming poverty. Just like great economists of the “American System” of economics such as Alexander Hamilton, Friedrich List and Lyndon LaRouche, Fimmen said, Xi too recognizes that human creativity is the true source of all wealth. In that context, Elke Fimmen urged the Romanians to concentrate not only on building infrastructure, but also on developing fundamental scientific research and advanced technologies, such as new generations of nuclear energy. For that, cooperation with China’s New Silk Road policy should open up many new opportunities.
E.I.R. STRATEGIC ALERT        www.eir.de  Published by: E.I.R.GmbH,  Bahnstr. 4, 65205 Wiesbaden Tel.: 0611/73650, Fax: 0611/9740935, Email:  info@eir.com Verantwortl. f. d. Inhalt: Dean Andromidas, Claudio Celani Subscription: EUR 3000/ ISSN  0936-7527 © E.I.R. GmbH  Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch die des Nachdrucks von Auszügen, derphotomechanischen Wiedergabe und der Übersetzung, Printed in German