STRATEGIC ALERT NEWSLETTER
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| | | Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder of the international Schiller Institute, issued the following statement on Dec. 12, which is being translated into several languages for the widest possible circulation. It is addressed to representatives of all religions, elected officials, civic organizations, and people of good will worldwide.
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The international Schiller Institute endorses the offer of Pope Francis to use the venue of the Vatican for negotiations between Russia and Ukraine for a diplomatic settlement of the war in Ukraine. The confrontation between the U.S., NATO, and Russia has escalated to the point where one more step, even an unintended mistake, one misreading by one side or the other, could trigger the launching of the entire nuclear arsenals of both sides, leading to a global nuclear war, followed by a nuclear winter of about ten years, which would mean that in all likelihood not one human being would survive.
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According to the U.S.-based Arms Control Association, citing senior U.S. officials: "Biden has decided not to follow through on his 2020 pledge to declare that the sole purpose of nuclear weapons is to deter a nuclear attack against the United States or its allies. Instead, he approved a version of a policy from the Obama administration that leaves open the option to use nuclear weapons not only in retaliation to a nuclear attack, but also to respond to non-nuclear threats."
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In response to that change, Russian President Putin declared on December 9, in a press conference in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan that Russia will reconsider its nuclear doctrine to use nuclear weapons only if the existence of the Russian state is threatened, and may respond to the U.S. doctrine of preemptive strike by adopting the same policy of a preemptive strike. That means we are one step away from a thermonuclear catastrophe.
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We call on all people of good will to support the offer of Pope Francis, which has been reiterated by Vatican Secretary of State Pietro Parolin, to use the venue of the Vatican for the immediate beginning of peace negotiations, without any preconditions.
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This is no longer an issue between Russia and Ukraine, and it never was. The Ukrainian people, like the Russian people, are victims and their suffering must stop immediately. This has become an issue of the entire human species, because if such a nuclear war happens, there will be no survivors.
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We call on you to join our request for a diplomatic solution. Also join our campaign to conduct choruses in the whole world to sing the canon for peace, Dona Nobis Pacem. May the voices for peace move the hearts and minds of those responsible.
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| For more information, visit the Schiller Institute website (https://schillerinstitute.com)and contact the institute at info@schillerinstituteorg. |
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| | | It is lawful that concurrent with the collapse of the transatlantic financial system and the consequent danger of nuclear annihilation, the drive for a new world economic order is rapidly expanding, at least outside of the so-called West. A new system of cooperation and trade, as we have consistently reported, is emerging within the framework of the BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the revival of a non-aligned movement in the Global South.
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An eloquent example of this was manifest during the visit of Chinese President Xi to Saudi Arabia last week, for discussions with leaders of the entire Arab world. The issue of oil and gas supplies was high on the agenda, in addition to the use of local currencies in trade, but also cultural exchanges (cf. below).
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Helga Zepp-LaRouche described this process in an interview with Russian journalist Vladimir Solovyov, aired Dec. 7 on his TV show Solovyov Live, calling it “unstoppable”. The “unipolar world” is finished, she said, but simply replacing it by some sort of “multipolar world”, is inadequate. To define a new international security and development architecture, she explained, we need to move to a much higher conception of mankind and the means to ensure the “long-term survivability of our species”.
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To contribute to that discussion, Helga Zepp-LaRouche has proposed for further debate “ten principles” that should underlie the new world order (cf. SAS 48/22 and https://schillerinstitute.com/blog/2022/11/30). The tenth, she told Soloyvov, is the most important, as it asserts that “the basic assumption for the new paradigm is, that man is fundamentally good”, and capable of improvement, and that evil is the result of a lack of development.
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Therefore, Zepp-LaRouche said she is confident that a solution to the present calamity can be found. A similar conception, she added, is promoted by Xi Jinping as the notion of a “shared community of the future of mankind”.
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A potentially crucial contribution has now come from India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who assumed the presidency of the G20 on Dec. 1. In an article published the same day on his blog and in the Indian press, he wrote that India intends to use its presidency to help “catalyze a fundamental mindset shift, to benefit humanity as a whole.” He asserts that while humanity has lived until now under conditions of scarcity, fighting over limited resources, and remains “trapped in the same zero-sum mindset” to this day, that can now change, because “we have the means to produce enough to meet the basic needs of all people in the world…. Today’s technology also gives us the means to address problems on a humanity-wide scale.”
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Achieving that should be the agenda of the G20 process, he stated. And moreover, “India’s G20 presidency will work to promote this universal sense of the one-ness” of all of humanity.
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| While it is the case that the Group of 20, which remains dominated by the G7, is not the ideal forum for achieving a positive shift in global power, Prime Minister Modi also intends to invite other countries of the Global South (but not only), to participate in the deliberations. |
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| | | Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel revealed in an interview with Die Zeit published Dec. 7 that the West’s strategy towards Moscow, ever since 2014, has been to prepare Ukraine for war against Russia: “The 2014 Minsk Agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time. It also used that time to get stronger, as can be seen today. Ukraine of 2014/15 is not the modern Ukraine.” Furthermore, the West should have intervened to stop “Russia’s aggressiveness” much earlier. Her remarks demonstrate that NATO’s mantra about an “unprovoked” intervention by the Russians is deliberately fraudulent.
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A few weeks ago, former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had already admitted that Kiev’s goal in signing the Minsk agreements, which were designed to put an end to the killing in the Donbass and to negotiate autonomy, was to “delay the war, to secure eight years to restore economic growth and create powerful armed forces”. But that France and Germany, which had mediated the accords, were also duplicitous, is strategically explosive.
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Russian President Putin was asked about the former Chancellor’s remarks at a Dec. 10 press conference on the sidelines of the Eurasian Economic Union Summit. “Frankly speaking”, he answered, “I did not expect to hear this from a former Federal Chancellor, because I’ve always proceeded from the assumption that the leaders of Germany were sincere with us.” But it shows, he continued, that Russia “was right” to launch the special military operation. Despite the intention of the Ukrainians, he said “I was still hoping that other participants in this process were sincere with us. It appears they were deceiving us as well. The only purpose was to pump arms into Ukraine and get it ready for hostilities.... Perhaps we should have started all this earlier, but we still simply hoped to come to terms under these Minsk Agreements.”
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This leads to the question of trust, which was “already close to zero” before Angela Merkel’s statements. “How can there be negotiations? What can be negotiated? Are there any guarantees? We’re ready for agreements; we’re open, but this makes us stop to think about who we are dealing with.”
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| Indeed, quite irrespective of Moscow’s position, NATO’s justification for waging a proxy war on Russia and urging President Zelensky to refuse to negotiate, is crumbling as the truth comes out. So who can mediate at this point? The idea had been floated over the past weeks that Angela Merkel might be able to play such a role, but she has discredited herself completely, for whatever reasons. This plays into the hands of the British strategy consisting of staging provocations to sabotage any negotiated settlement. The one option which is available is the offer by the Vatican to serve as a venue for peace talks. |
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| | | The conflict in Ukraine, following on the global disruptions caused by the COVID pandemic, is contributing to a growing shift in trade flows internationally. It is coherent with the emerging new economic order.
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Realignment underway in Eurasia. Exports from Asia to America declined by 11% in Oct. 2022 compared to one year earlier. In terms of manufacturing, orders from the United States to China were down by 40% from a year earlier in November, an even greater decline than in October and September, according to CNBC’s Supply Chain Heat Map data. This in turn is creating major problems for ocean freight carriers. On a month-to-month basis, China shipments to the U.S. dropped 21% from August through November.
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At the same time, China’s rail trade with Russia via the Eurasian Land-Bridge has dramatically increased, as has sea trade between Russia and China, and between Russia and India. China’s annual trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council countries and Iran, combined, is nearly $250 billion and is now four times U.S. trade with the same countries. China’s goods trade with Africa is more than double U.S. goods trade there.
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Transatlantic trade, however, increased during 2022. Goods imported into the U.S. from Europe were up by some 25% since March, while U.S. exports to Europe are at record levels, due in particular to oil and LNG.
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The EU’s illusory price cap on Russian oil. The European Union as well as the entire G7 agreed to limit the price they will pay for Russian oil imports to $60 per barrel, as of early Dec. The key to the plan is the stipulation that any shipowner or charterer that intends to transport the oil will have to provide an “attestation” that it will not be sold above the price cap.
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However, Russian producers have found other buyers for their products for now. According to a Dec. 9 Bloomberg News item, some of China’s independent refiners are snapping up cargoes of Russian ESPO crude that are set to be delivered in January. “The export price of the nation’s main grade shipped from the Far East was assessed at $67.11 a barrel” on Dec. 8. ESPO refers to oil produced in East Siberia, which travels via the 4,200 km Eastern Siberia Pacific Ocean pipeline to the Pacific Ocean, whence it is exported to Asian nations.
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The data firm Kpler reports that for Nov. 2022, China was importing from Russia 1 million barrels per day, and India 0.9 million barrels per day. The increment by India and China of their purchases this year alone has offset more than 40% of the oil that Russia sold to the 27 nations of the EU. Several other nations import Russian oil, in part, because they can get discounts.
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When Western sanctions backfire.. A study released in October by the Belgian-based economic think tank Bruegel shows that, after nine and a half months, the economic reprisals against Russia are not working. It was forecast, last spring, that as a result of the sanctions, Russian GDP would drop by at least 7-8% (and possibly as much as 11%) in 2022, while prices would rise by 20-25%. Foreign direct investment by corporations was forecast to fall as much as 25-28% over the year.
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However, according to a report on the study by NPR radio, “Russia has not been brought to its knees. Far from it: Forecasters say Russian GDP for 2022 will likely fall, but only about 3.3−3.4%. Inflation, meanwhile, will likely end the year at roughly 12%: bad, but not close to as painful as predicted. And foreign direct investment? Estimates say it will fall by a mere 1%.”
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| But there has been one very negative effect, in the crucial area of machine tools, machinery, mechanical appliances, boilers, electrical equipment, products of the chemical industry, aircraft, etc. But today, such imports have dropped considerably, which means that, in addition to China, Russia must find new sources for importing such machinery, while expanding at the same time, its own domestic industries. |
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| | | The “milestone” 3-day visit of President Xi to Saudi Arabia December 13-16, featured three summits: one with the Saudi leadership, one with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and the first ever China-Arab summit. As a result, the China-Arab relationship will move to an entirely new level, from economics and trade to increasing cooperation in the areas of culture, politics and security. President Xi held bilateral meetings with some 20 of the many Arab leaders in attendance.
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As President Xi indicated in an article he wrote prior to his visit which was published in Al Ryadh, the relationship between China and the Arab world hearkens back to the ancient Silk Road, which now provides a major avenue of South-South cooperation. At the time, he noted, China provided porcelain, paper-making and printing techniques to the Arab world, and brought back the Arabs’ advanced understanding in astronomy, medicine, and calendar-making.
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Today, the relationship with the Saudis, in particular, has broadened into a comprehensive strategic partnership. This is cause for great consternation in Washington and London, which have counted on the House of Saud as a steadfast ally in the region. Riyadh, however, has strongly opposed their attempts to disrupt the global oil markets with sanctions against Russia and to cap the price of Russian oil sold (cf. above). Saudi Arabia, as well as the other OPEC countries have indicated that they will not cooperate with such an aggressive policy.
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Many bilateral deals were inked during the course of the trip, as Saudi Arabia has already become involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, and China has invested in key infrastructure projects, with more expected. One of the main projects the BRI has accomplished is a high-speed rail link between Medina and Mecca. As was expected, major contracts were signed with regard to the supply of oil and gas, which has become very important for the growing Chinese economy. China has invested in major new refineries in Saudi Arabia and is prepared to help develop new oil fields there as well.
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President Xi proposed, in his speech to the China Arab Summit, eight initiatives that the two sides should work on: support for economic development, food security, public health, green innovation, energy security, inter-civilizational dialogue, youth development, and security and stability.
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In his statement at the China-GCC Summit, the Chinese leader pointed to cooperation in energy, finance and investment, innovation and new technologies, aerospace, and language and culture. He also urged the countries to establish a working mechanism for bilateral investment and economic cooperation, including digital currency cooperation. Much of China’s trade in the region is now done in RMB, and China will encourage moving further in the direction of using local currencies in trade.
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| President Xi underlined at the China-Arab Summit the importance of peace and security in the Middle East and promised that China would play a greater role in securing those conditions. He also renewed China’s commitment to a land-for-peace solution to the Israel-Palestinian conflict, taking a firm step to support a just resolution for the Palestinian people. |
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| | | While some leaders in NATO countries have dropped hints that it may soon be time to try negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, the word came from a leading British intelligence institution that that is out of the question until Russia is defeated and humiliated. A round table discussion at Chatham House on Dec. 6 featured two long-standing Russophobes, who claimed that Russia's "imperial intentions" make it impossible to reach an agreement with its leaders. The event was titled "Russia's War on Everybody," and the clear impression they gave is that Russia's "national character" is barbaric and therefore they cannot be trusted to negotiate in good faith. (In parentheses, the recent confession by Angela Merkel (cf. below) shows how much the West can be trusted.)
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The problem, said Edward Lucas, "is the way Russia thinks...We are playing Russian games by Russian rules." Russia is deploying an arsenal of hybrid warfare, playing divide-and-rule between the U.S. and NATO, and spreading disinformation. Lucas is a former editor of the City of London's Economist magazine, who currently writes a column for the Times of London.
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He blamed "western complacency" for the war, and for not heeding warnings from Lithuania and the Poles back in the 1990s. Asked by an audience member if there was anything which could have been done differently after the fall of the Soviet Union, he responded belligerently: "I resent the framing of that question." It is a "self-pitying narrative" of the Russians that "the West didn't help Russia after the fall of the Soviet Union."
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This was a theme of the evening, echoed by panelist Keir Giles, a Chatham House fellow and author with intelligence connections. Moscow, he asserted, believes "it is entitled to Empire," and was already at war with the west, including during the Yeltsin era. Both he and Lucas said the present confrontation "predates Putin", with Giles tracing it back to the time of Catherine the Great.
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And they both believe that only a return to British imperial geopolitics will protect the world from Russian barbarism! Lucas, in his concluding remarks, identified what he said has been the problem that Putin exploited. During the Cold War, "our diplomatic and intelligence services were really good -- we destroyed it, because we don't think geopolitics is still going on."
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In his book Moscow Rules: What Drives Moscow to Confront the West, Giles criticizes post 1990 western policy as naive, writing that "hoping for a different Russia" is not a viable policy approach. It is a mistake to assume that Russia is a "Western country....The ideals, values, prejudices, hopes, fears and motivations that are shared by many Russians...are distinctive or alien to the West."
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| In Feb. 2022, when Putin first launched the special military operation in Ukraine, Giles published an op-ed in the Guardian titled "Only total military failure will curb Putin's ambitions in Ukraine." Nine months into the war, this imperial war hawk is more convinced than ever of this view, one which is shared by the leading intelligence and defense officials of the UK government. |
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| | | The European Commission’s warning to Elon Musk that Twitter “must obey EU rules or else”, not only sounds like a Mafia warning, but reveals the dictatorial nature of the censorship of free speech and free press imposed by EU institutions. And it unmasks the role of the Commission, which has drafted the so-called “code of practice on disinformation”, while acting as if it were adopted voluntarily, by social media and fact checkers.
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One is reminded of the famous scene in John Ford's 1949 movie She Wore A Yellow Ribbon, where captain Nathan Brittles (John Wayne) tells Sgt. Tyree (Ben Johnson): “I order you to volunteer”. Except that in the iconic Western, Capt. Brittles has both the authority and the jurisdiction to give orders. That is not the case of the European Commission, at least not without violating all national constitutions and the EU Treaties themselves.
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Indeed, the travesty was initiated in 2018, when the Commission gathered representatives of major technology firms and the online advertising industry to develop a “voluntary” framework to counter so-called fake news. This was after Donald Trump's election as President of the United States, achieved through a massive use of social media. In a communication to the European Parliament on April 24, 2018, the Commission referred to the World Economic Forum as the first agency to raise the alarm in 2014, and presented detailed guidelines on what the code should look like -- de facto drafting its content. Among the first “voluntary” signers were Facebook, Twitter and Mozilla.
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Eventually, in 2021, having deemed the system of censorship not tough enough, the Commission issued a “guidance” for a “strengthened Code of practice”. It was articulated in the following points:
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- “Larger participation with tailored commitments
- “Better demonetising of disinformation
- “Ensuring the integrity of services
- “Improving the empowerment of users
- “Increasing the coverage of fact-checking and providing increased access to data to researchers
- “Creating a more robust monitoring framework”
The strengthened Code was signed -- “voluntarily” -- by 34 signatories on 16 June 2022. In announcing the new Code, the Commission attempted to justify its overreach: “The 2022 Code of Practice is the result of the work carried out by the signatories. It is for the signatories to decide which commitments they sign up to and it is their responsibility to ensure the effectiveness of their commitments’ implementation. The Code is not endorsed by the Commission, while the Commission set out its expectations in the Guidance and considers that, as a whole, the Code fulfills these expectations.”
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| If the EU does not “endorse” the code, which is a private, “voluntary” initiative of the signers, why is it interfering in Twitter's voluntary decision to abandon those guidelines? The truth is, that the code of practice is the EU’s baby (or Cosa Nostra). Which raises the interesting question: by playing Captain Brittles to U.S. social media, isn’t the EU interfering in the U.S. political process? |
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| | | On Dec. 7, the national Journalists Club of Mexico issued their annual awards to 46 Mexican and international journalists, media and institutions chosen by a 20-person independent jury for their exemplary journalism and for work on behalf of freedom of speech.
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The Schiller Institute received the award for “Fostering freedom of expression from the academic realm”. The master of ceremonies explained that the distinction was for the SI’s “contributions to historical and geopolitical analysis in order to understand global changes, using a multidisciplinary methodology with critical thinking, warning of the consequences of the violence and imbalances which impact the concert of nations and affect world peace.”
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In her pre-recorded message, Zepp-LaRouche explained that she could not attend personally to accept the award, because she was number one on a Ukrainian hit list (that of the Ukrainian government’s Center for Countering Disinformation). She expressed her great appreciation for the honor bestowed, and for the international leadership role Mexico is playing, and can play in rallying the world against nuclear war and for peace.
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The annual contest has become an institution in the country, with increasing international attention. Julian Assange, for example, was issued an award for “Freedom of Expression” in 2019. The ceremony this year was attended by the President of Mexico’s press spokesman Jesús Ramírez Cuevas and by diplomats from various countries, as well as many journalists and media and their families and friends.
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| Helga Zepp-LaRouche also delivered a 30 minute address to Mexico’s Journalists Club on Dec. 11. |
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