STRATEGIC ALERT NEWSLETTER
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| | | From the anti-NATO marches in Munich on Feb. 18 and the unprecedented rally in Washington one day later (cf. SAS 8/23), to the many demonstrations that took place throughout Europe on the following weekend, a powerful anti-war movement is building in the transatlantic world. The numbers were larger or smaller depending on the location, but what characterized all of the protests was the openness of the vast majority of the participants to consider ideas that they were not willing to entertain before. That was reflected in the novelty that “left” and “right” are uniting around a common goal of stopping nuclear war.
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The rally of up to 50,000 people in Berlin on Feb. 25 was the most remarkable, including because Germany is the key country in Europe for NATO’s war against Russia and potentially China (cf. below).
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At the same time, and perfectly legitimately so, the rejection of the West’s “unipolar world” is growing in the Global South. More and more countries are seeking alternative forums to ensure mutual development and cooperation, including the BRICS, the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization) and various regional organizations. Faced with ultimatums, provocations and sanctions from the West, the world’s largest physical economy by far – China – is moving ever closer to Russia, and so is India.
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The Russians, according to Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, now refer to this grouping of countries as the “global majority”, as opposed to the “global coalition” that the U.S. President and State Department claim stand firmly on their side.
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| What is driving the dynamic for war is the breakdown crisis of the entire trans-Atlantic financial system. The attempt to save it by implementing a war economy, or by more “green bubbles” under the guise of protecting the planet, is doomed to fail. A growing number of people are coming to recognize that what is needed is the full “LaRouche solution”, and nothing less. |
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| | | As central banks signal further interest rate increases, the system signals that a boundary condition is being reached in both the stock and bond markets. In an analyst’s note, Morgan Stanley chief U.S. equity strategist, Mike Wilson, likened the current stock market increase to the “death zone” that mountain climbers experience when they reach an altitude so high they don’t have enough oxygen to breathe. “Many fatalities in high-altitude mountaineering have been caused by the death zone, either directly through loss of vital functions, or indirectly by wrong decisions made under stress or physical weakening that lead to accidents,” Wilson wrote. “This is a perfect analogy for where equity investors find themselves today, and quite frankly, where they've been many times over the past decade.”
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Such a “speculative frenzy” was based on the expectation that the Federal Reserve would be forced to stop their QT policy and lower interest rates – which is not happening. Justified by January inflation figures higher than expected, with the CPI increasing by 5.4% year-on-year, the Fed will continue to increase the rates, in an attempt to lower inflation. In that case, Wilson predicts that the S&P 500 will drop to 3,000 points within months, down about 26% from current levels.
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At the European Central Bank, both Christine Lagarde and member of the board Isabel Schnabel said their bank would do the same: “In view of the underlying inflation pressures we intend to raise interest rates by another 50 basis points at our next meeting in March, and we will then evaluate the subsequent path of our monetary policy,” Lagarde told a European Parliament committee on Feb. 15.
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The impact of soaring interest rates is far worse in the developing sector, and is leading to a blowout. That is evident in Latin America. In Argentina, the central bank’s basic rate has risen from 35% one year ago, to 75% today. The actual cost of borrowing for a small or medium business, however, is over 300%, according to reliable sources consulted by EIR.
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In neighboring Brazil, the rising Fed interest rate has pushed that country’s central bank rate up from 10.7% a year ago, to 13.75% today. In the same period, Mexico’s rate jumped from 6% to 11.25%. Inflation is soaring in all these countries.
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| Thus, to try and fight a monster they themselves created, namely inflation, central banks are creating multiple, larger monsters. The system cannot be rescued from inside and must be replaced by a new one. |
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| | | In spite of massive attacks and slanders in the media and by established political leaders (including in the Linke party), the “Uprising for Peace” rally at Brandenburg Gate in Berlin on Feb. 25 saw a turnout of some 50,000 – the biggest such rally since the high time of the “peace movement” in the early 1980s. The approach taken by Sahra Wagenknecht and Alice Schwarzer, the organizers of the rally, for a pro-peace campaign transcending party boundaries resonates with the views of a substantial part of the population. Antiwar rallies held in other German cities, which did not take this approach, were much smaller.
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The prelude to the Berlin rally was the Wagenknecht-Schwarzer “manifesto for peace” published two weeks before, which has been signed by over 700,000 so far (cf. SAS 07/23). It was also preceded by the unexpected participation of some 20,000 at the protest rally in front of the Munich Security Conference on Feb. 18.
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As for the “hysterical yelling” coming from the NATO-aligned media and parties, Sahra Wagenknecht pointed out in Berlin that it was driven by fears that the movement against war will grow. This rally is only the kick-off to a return of a mass movement for peace, she announced, because the people do not support the policy of this government – in particular of Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, who “acts like an elephant in a China shop” and even declared war on Russia. Moreover, all references to Baerbock from the speakers, and to the “Green weapons fanatics” set off a wave of jeers and boos by the rally participants.
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Very important is that Wagenknecht demolished the pervasive propaganda about the “freedom-loving”, heroic fighters in Ukraine by denouncing the neo-nazi extremist elements that NATO is using in the war, and who have had the support of former Ukrainian ambassador to Germany and current Deputy Foreign Minister, Andriy Melnyk.
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On the eve of the Berlin rally, Sahra Wagenknecht had endorsed the peace initiatives by Brazil, China and the Vatican as orientation points for the German government, which should support such moves rather than delivering weapons to Ukraine and fantasizing about inflicting total defeat and economic ruin on Russia.
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The danger that weapons deliveries to Ukraine will lead to an escalation to a nuclear confrontation between the West/NATO and Russia was addressed by all speakers in Berlin, notably by Brig-Gen. (ret) Erich Vad, a former military advisor to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. In many interviews over the recent months, he has stressed that there is no replacement for diplomacy. The current German government’s approach, the General warned in Berlin, would turn all of Europe into a battlefield, wih a human toll and destruction far beyond what is now happening in Ukraine. This is the first time in decades that a former senior military officer has spoken at such a protest rally.
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| Whereas the unprincipled leadership of the Left party continued to attack Wagenknecht for allegedly providing a platform to right-wingers, she was backed by leading Linke politician Amira Mohamed Ali, the parliamentary group leader of the party in the Bundestag, who spoke of a "peaceful demonstration with an overwhelming number of participants". In addition, many of the rank-and-file of the party support the initiative. As for the Greens, the leadership has become the most gung-ho on war and “mainstream” of any party but, as both Schwarzer and Wagenknecht indicated at the rally, more and more of their supporters are turning away in disgust. |
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| | | From shooting down a Chinese weather balloon allegedly used for spying purposes to boosting arms sales to Taiwan and ordering Beijing not to provide lethal weapons to Russia, the Biden Administration’s threats against China have gone over the top. As a result, Beijing is dropping its traditional diplomatic reserve.
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| On Feb. 20, just one day before releasing its Global Security Initiative Concept Paper (cf. SAS 8/23), the Foreign Ministry published a harsh attack on U.S. foreign policy in a paper entitled U.S. Hegemony and Its Perils. The introduction states outright what many in the world believe, including in the United States and Europe. |
| | “Since becoming the world's most powerful country after the two world wars and the Cold War, the United States has acted more boldly to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, pursue, maintain and abuse hegemony, advance subversion and infiltration, and willfully wage wars, bringing harm to the international community.
“The United States has developed a hegemonic playbook to stage ‘color revolutions’, instigate regional disputes, and even directly launch wars under the guise of promoting democracy, freedom and human rights. Clinging to the Cold War mentality, the United States has ramped up bloc politics and stoked conflict and confrontation. It has overstretched the concept of national security, abused export controls and forced unilateral sanctions upon others. It has taken a selective approach to international law and rules, utilizing or discarding them as it sees fit, and has sought to impose rules that serve its own interests in the name of upholding a ‘rules-based international order’." |
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The document goes on to expose the United States’ abuse of hegemony “in the political, military, economic, financial, technological and cultural fields”.
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| The same combative tone was heard from the Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin at his Feb. 23 press conference, when asked about the U.S. State Department’s warning over China-Russia ties. |
| | | “The U.S. is the number 1 warmonger in the world”, he pointed out. “The U.S. accounted for about 80% of all post-World War II armed conflicts. The U.S. is also the number 1 violator of sovereignty and interferer in the internal affairs of other countries.… Since the end of World War II, the U.S. has sought to subvert more than 50 foreign governments, grossly interfered in elections in at least 30 countries, and attempted assassination on over 50 foreign leaders.” |
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| | | The more the West insists on imposing its “rules-based order” and war policy on the entire world, the faster resistance is growing, not only in the superpowers of China and Russia, but especially in what is known as the “Global South”. That reality can no longer be ignored, even by certain bulwarks of the western establishment. To give just a few examples:
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- The two-day meeting of G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors in India ended on Feb. 25 without a joint communique, due to disagreement over whether to include a condemnation of Russia for the “invasion” of Ukraine, as demanded by the U.S., while India (which has not condemned Moscow) wanted to use neutral terminology such as "crisis" or "challenge" to refer to the situation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi insisted from the opening of the meeting that the focus be on the need to provide food, energy, industry, water, health care and the rest for “those most vulnerable” around the world. He did not mention Ukraine in a way to allow it to be used as a diversion.
- While 143 nations voted for a UN Resolution to condemn Russia’s annexation of territory in Ukraine, only 33 have joined the U.S. and NATO in imposing sanctions against Russia. Those figures are highlighted in a Washington Post article of Feb. 22 titled “A Global Divide on the Ukraine War Is Deepening”. The author, Liz Sly, provides anecdotal evidence from people from India, Egypt, and South Africa, that explains why there is no support for the efforts to isolate Russia in the Global South. The world is “not united behind the U.S,” she concludes, the “effort to isolate Putin has failed.”
- The European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) has issued a new study, which recognizes that while the West may be more consolidated than ever behind the Cold War policy, and the primacy of the fight “between democracy and authoritarianism”, the “paradox is that this newfound unity is coinciding with the emergence of a post-Western world. The West has not disintegrated, but its consolidation has come at a moment when other powers will not simply do as it wishes.” The very neo-conservative Washington Post reported on the study in an article by Ishaan Tharoor, titled “Biden Rallies the West, but What About the Rest?”.
- The Economist, alias the voice of the City of London, is very concerned that China’s peace plan for Ukraine will be widely supported by the non western world. On Feb. 20, several days before that plan was released, its editorial blasted Beijing’s position under the headline: “If China allies itself with Russia, there will be a world war” (a direct quote of President Zelenskyy). It states that “China’s argument that countries should focus on economic growth and poverty alleviation rather than human rights gets some traction in parts of the developing world. So does China’s portrayal of the war as the latest example of Western-inspired global disorder, sending food and energy prices higher.”
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| | | China released on Feb. 24 its proposal for solving the conflict in Ukraine, which had been announced by top diplomat Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference and discussed with various leaders during his trip to Europe (cf. SAS 8/23). The short 12-point document, titled China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis, presents a serious alternative to the approach of those who intend to prolong the war “for as long as it takes”, at the risk of escalation to a nuclear world war. It also confirms the Chinese leadership’s intention to play a more active role in international diplomacy.
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We summarize the main points of the plan:
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“1. Respecting the sovereignty of all countries.” International law and the UN Charter must be observed, and the “sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld.” ...
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“2. Abandoning the Cold War mentality.... The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly. There is no simple solution to a complex issue... All parties should oppose the pursuit of one’s own security at the cost of others’ security, prevent bloc confrontation, and work together for peace and stability on the Eurasian Continent.”
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“3. Ceasing hostilities.” All parties should support Russia and Ukraine “in resuming direct dialogue as quickly as possible, so as to gradually deescalate the situation and ultimately reach a comprehensive ceasefire.”
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“4. Resuming peace talks. Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis.”...
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“5. Resolving the humanitarian crisis. All measures conducive to easing the humanitarian crisis must be encouraged and supported....”
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“6. Protecting civilians and prisoners of war (POWs).”
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“7. Keeping nuclear power plants safe.”
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“8. Reducing strategic risks. Nuclear weapons must not be used and nuclear wars must not be fought.”
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“9. Facilitating grain exports. All parties need to implement the Black Sea Grain Initiative signed by Russia, Türkiye, Ukraine and the UN fully and effectively in a balanced manner, and support the UN in playing an important role in this regard.... The cooperation initiative on global food security proposed by China provides a feasible solution to the global food crisis.”
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“10. Stopping unilateral sanctions. Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems.”
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“11. Keeping industrial and supply chains stable.” All parties should “oppose using the world economy as a tool or weapon for political purposes....”
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| “12. Promoting post-conflict reconstruction.... China stands ready to provide assistance and play a constructive role in this endeavor.” |
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| | | From the United States, President Biden quickly dismissed Beijing’s initiative out of hand, calling it a "non-starter" and implying that it only benefits Russia! The idea that China could negotiate the outcome of a war is “totally irrational”, he stated.
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EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell also rejected the plan, calling it a “document of intentions, where Beijing outlines all its positions that are known from the beginning”. It nonetheless contains “interesting elements”, he added. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU would consider it “against the backdrop that China has taken sides”.
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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated at a press conference in Estonia, that China has no credibility. Why? Because it never condemned Russia’s invasion, i.e., because it doesn’t support NATO!
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As for the Ukrainians, the Foreign Ministry said the government would study it, while President Zelenskyy said he was ready to go to China to discuss it, although he has categorically refused any talks with Moscow until now, most likely on orders from NATO headquarters.
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The Kremlin’s response was to welcome Beijing’s efforts, but adding that it sees no opportunity for a political resolution at this time. President Xi is expected to visit Moscow in March.
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From Brazil, Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira wants to discuss the plan with his Chinese counterpart Qin Gang on the sidelines of the March 1-3 meeting of G20 foreign ministers in New Delhi. In January, Brazilian President Lula da Silva had proposed to pull together a group of nations, including China, to help mediate an end to the conflict (cf. SAS 6/23). Vieira intends to discuss it with all his counterparts in Delhi.
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| French President Emmanuel Macron, who will travel to China in April, said he will discuss it with Xi Jinping, but he wants Beijing to clearly condemn the Russian invasion. |
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| | | Two events sponsored by the Schiller Institute (SI) last week provided a powerful dose of truth aimed at breaking the wall of containment constructed by the U.S./NATO hybrid warriors. Coming as large cracks in the official "narrative" are opening, these dialogues are fueling the building of an anti-war movement which can defeat the plans to engage in permanent warfare against Russia and China, and any nation which defies their "Rules-Based Order".
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The first seminar occurred Feb. 21, titled "The Syrian Sanctions Must Be Lifted." Speakers described the destruction by NATO powers of Syrian sovereignty, prosperity and territorial integrity since 2007, providing details about how, despite last month's devastating earthquakes, the United States, Great Britain and the European Union continue to enforce unilateral economic and financial sanctions on Syria to block not only reconstruction aid, but even humanitarian relief. All speakers insisted that the criminal sanctions must immediately be lifted, and the U.S. illegal occupation of Syria ended.
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Retired Col. Richard Black, who served as the former director of the Criminal Law Division of the U.S. Army at the Pentagon, stated that if the American people were informed of the horror created by the U.S. government enforcement of sanctions, with malice aforethought, “this government would fall.”
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In addition to Black and Helga Zepp-LaRouche, speakers included journalist Vanessa Beeley, who reported that an illegal occupation of Syria continues, with "three of its four borders controlled by hostile powers"; Malaysian activist Chandra Muzaffar, who described Syria as "a victim of U.S. hegemony"; and Lebanese author Marwa Osman, who called on viewers to demand of their Congressmen why the killer sanctions have not been suspended.
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Two days later, an online seminar titled "Investigate Nord Stream Revelations: Stop Nuclear World War III" took up the broader implications of Seymour Hersh's exposé on the Biden administration's responsibility for sabotaging the Nord Stream pipelines (cf. SAS 7, 8/23). Speakers included two retired military officials from Europe, Col. Ralph Bosshard of Switzerland and General Dominique Delawarde from France; as well as law professor Francis Boyle from the University of Illinois; Graham Fuller, an author and former CIA official; Ray McGovern, a 27-year CIA official and peace activist. The keynote was given by Helga Zepp-LaRouche, who ended by saying that "if the Hersh allegations are confirmed, Germany has only one possible answer. It must leave NATO."
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As in the case of the Syria seminar, the presentations were powerful, full of insights and real intelligence, which cannot adequately be summarized here, and they should be viewed in their entirety. Highlights included Boyle's discussion of how the Nord Stream sabotage represents a war crime under international law, and his recommendation that bringing a bill of impeachment against Biden might tie his hands to prevent him from launching a full scale war against Russia.
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| Ray McGovern proposed that Chancellor Scholz be asked what he knew of the U.S. involvement in sabotaging Germany's access to cheap and plentiful energy. Just two days before the SI seminar, McGovern had addressed the U.N. Security Council on the Hersh revelations. |
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| | | While NATO propaganda insists that Russia is not winning the war in Ukraine and that Kiev will be able to defeat the Russian army provided it is supplied enough weapons, intelligence agencies know that the reality is quite different. At the weekly “Manhattan project dialogue” on Feb. 18, former CIA analyst Ray McGovern likened the situation to the eve of the famous 1968 Tet Offensive in Vietnam. At that time, intelligence officials had correctly estimated the Vietcong force to be at least 500,000 and possibly 600,000, but Gen. William Westmoreland, commander-in-chief of US forces in Vietnam, and his deputy General Creighton Abrams decided to suppress the information. They put out the figure of 299,000 and said that the US could turn the tide with 206,000 more men.
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A few months later, in January 1968, the North Vietnamese launched a surprise attack on such a scale as to confirm the first estimates. Eventually, US and South Vietnamese forces could contain the offensive, but the U.S. public opinion was so shocked by the capacities shown by the Vietcong, that President Johnson decided to start negotiations to end the war.
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| What is the lesson for today? McGovern said he had recently “talked to a very senior military analyst, who should be a general, but is not. He’s the best there is.” He said that when the Russians start to move in earnest, which will be in the ensuing weeks, the political effect will be similar to Tet. “But the true military effect will be far greater. The incremental roll-out of Russian forces marshalled in southern Ukraine and western Russia has disguised the actual size and dimensions of the offensive operations.”. In other words, McGovern explained, “the adolescent sophomores around Biden have been able to downplay the intelligence” that had prompted the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Milley, to say about one month ago that “now’s the time we really ought to negotiate. Eventually, he backtracked and said that the Russians are losing.” For the moment, concluded McGovern, “there’s no sense that the West has any idea of dealing now”. |
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