STRATEGIC ALERT NEWSLETTER
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| | | On June 3, the U.S. State Department prevented U.S. citizen Scott Ritter from boarding his flight to St. Petersburg, Russia, and seized his passport. Ritter, a former U.S. Marine officer and United Nations weapons inspector who has become a prominent opponent of the current war policy, was traveling to participate in the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF). He was subsequently able to at least participate in one panel via Zoom.
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The content of what Ritter was going to discuss is key to understanding why the U.S. government intervened so brutally to restrict an American citizens’ right to free speech, and to travel freely. His intention was to go into the need to improve U.S.-Russian relations and to stop the escalating danger arising from NATO's current posture towards Russia, as seen most starkly in Ukraine, which is dragging the world towards a nuclear World War III.
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Indeed, the attacks in late May on a critical Russian early-warning radar system at Armavir, purportedly by "Ukrainian" drones, could have tipped the balance towards war, because it could have confirmed for Russia their stated belief that NATO and the West are intent on "blinding" Russia's early-warning system in preparation for a possible "preemptive decapitation" strike by the U.S. and NATO against them (cf. SAS 22, 23/24) Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated exactly this concern, publicly, and it is the height of arrogant foolishness of the West to dismiss this as a "bluff," as so many in Washington, London and other NATO capitals are now doing.
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As dangerous as attempting to blind Russia's early-warning radar, are the efforts to silence opposition voices who function as a kind of "early-warning" system in the domain of policy deliberation, those who are warning of the danger of nuclear war, and are presenting alternatives to a policy of confrontation.
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Given the urgency, the Schiller Institute moved quickly to set up an emergency press conference on June 12, at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., with the participation of Scott Ritter himself and three other experts: Col. (ret.) Richard H. Black, former head of the U.S. Army's Criminal Law Division at the Pentagon; former State Senator, Virginia; Ray McGovern, former CIA analyst and co-founder of the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS), and Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder of the Schiller Institute. Our next issue of the SAS will report on the event.
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| In various interviews done after his passport was seized at the airport, Scott Ritter pointed out that he was on the list of “information terrorists” to be eliminated, compiled by the Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation, which is in turn funded by the U.S. State Department. (A number of leaders of the Schiller Institute, including Helga Zepp-LaRouche, also figure prominently on that “kill list” cf. SAS 16, 22/24). He also explained that he planned to speak at the SPIEF about the transition to a multipolar world through the BRICS, a transition that the State Department is desperate to stop. |
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| | | The Parliament of the European Union, the institution that loves to lecture the rest of the world about democracy, is in fact powerless. It cannot legislate on its own initiative and cannot even dissolve itself. Its function relative to the Executive of the EU, the Commission, is similar to that of consultative bodies under absolute monarchies. Only once during a given term is it relevant: when, at the beginning of its five-year legislature, it elects the European Commission. But even in that case, the EP is strongly conditioned by deals struck inside the European Council, where governments of member states agree on who will be the next Commission head, who will eventually be voted on by the parliamentarians.
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That said, the political importance of the June 6-9 election for European Parliament cannot be underestimated. Citizens rejected all ruling governments, with one exception, thus undermining the legitimacy of the pro-war and pro-Green Deal policies pushed by those governments. In particular the driving axis of the EU, the Franco-German alliance, suffered a smashing defeat, with the German “traffic light” coalition barely reaching 30% of the votes and Emmanuel Macron's party receiving only half as much as its main adversary, the Rassemblement National (RN cf. below). (In a desperate attempt to stay afloat, Macron announced national snap elections, hoping to repeat the gimmick of rallying all anti-RN forces in the second round.) Even the success of the Italian center-right coalition under PM Giorgia Meloni could partially be seen as a vote against the EU, as all those parties have opposed the Green Deal follies and recently distanced themselves from the mad policy, pushed by President Macron and Chancellor Scholz, of becoming involved in military strikes on Russian territory.
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The European elections can therefore be seen as a major referendum against EU policies. In democratic countries, such a pronouncement by the people cannot be ignored. But in the EU, democracy is an export-only item. Here, rules are different. Thus, one can expect European leaders, although delegitimized, to stick to their agenda, beginning with the election of the next president of the European Commission.
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As the EU Council convenes at the end of June, they will have on the table the name of Ursula von der Leyen, candidate of the European People's Party (EPP), the “winner” of the elections, who hopes to win a second mandate. She needs a majority vote of 55% in the Council, representing 65% of European citizens. This formula makes it complicated: none of the four largest countries by population is ruled by parties belonging to the EPP. Thus, a compromise must be reached and former ECB chairman Mario Draghi is still an option in the background.
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| Furthermore, the candidate must eventually be voted in by the European Parliament. Traditionally, the EP approves the deals made by the European Council, and the so-called “Ursula majority” (a grand coalition of centrists (EPP), liberals and socialists), although weakened, still has a tiny majority on paper. This majority, however, disappears if there is the same percentage of opposition within their own ranks as five years ago. Furthermore, the liberal and socialist component of the coalition have expressed their dissatisfaction with the opening of von der Leyen to right-wing factions. Thus, surprises may be in store. |
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| | | The three parties of the German government coalition (SPD, Greens, FDP) were all among the losers of the election for the European Parliament. For the Greens, it was a smashing defeat, as they lost 40% of the votes they got four years ago, as a result of the growing disgust at the party’s war policy and the Green Deal, both of which put a heavy economic and financial burden on the population.
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The growing opposition to the government's policies was strongly reflected in the considerable gains for the AfD (Alternative for Germany party) and for the BSW, the new party founded just a few months ago by Sahra Wagenknecht. In spite of a truly massive campaign by all the other parties and mainstream media against the AfD, it has emerged as the second strongest party after the Christian Democrats (CDU). Moreover, the BSW, which strongly opposes more weapons supplies to Ukraine and supports the Chinese peace proposal, received more votes than the aggressively pro-war Free Democrats.
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The results in terms of percentage: CDU/CSU 30% (+1,1); AfD 15,9% (+4,9); SPD 13,9% (-1,9); Greens 11,9% (-8,6); BSW 6,2% (+6,2); FDP 5,20% (-0,2); Linke 2,7% (-2,8).
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Another striking aspect of these election results is the clear division between the western and eastern parts of Germany. While in the west, the CDU came in first in most voting districts, in the east the AfD was the winner in almost all districts, and the young BSW emerged as the third-strongest after the CDU. This could be a portent for the Berlin coalition in view of the three state parliamentary elections scheduled for September (Saxony, Thuringia, Brandenburg, all in the east). In all three of these states, the coalition partners came in well behind the AfD, the CDU and the BSW in that order. A serious political crisis affecting all of Germany, with an upsurge of unrest, is preprogrammed if the AfD wins those elections and all the other parties continue to boycott cooperation.
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| Unlike in France, where the President dissolved the parliament immediately after the election results were in and decreed early elections for the end of June, the German government will likely try and stay in power, despite its miserable showing, until the end of its term in the autumn of 2025. That implies a growing instability and ungovernability which will radiate from Germany into the rest of Europe. |
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| | | Despite all the hype in France around the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-day, the Renaissance party of President Macron could not avoid a stunning disavowal of his policy in the June 9 European Parliament elections. As expected, the party of Marine Le Pen, the National Rally, came in at over 31%, more than double the score of Renaissance (14.6%). But on the left wing as well, his party only surpassed the Socialist Party by 0.8%,with La France Insoumise at 9.9% and the Greens reduced to 5.5%. The abstention rate was higher than all, at 49%. In the months preceding the vote, the popularity of the French President was already abysmal, principally because of his economic policies, but also due to his submission to the “rules-based order” and Brussels.
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While the European elections have traditionally favored a “protest vote” in France, Emmanuel Macron nonetheless announced within hours of the results that the National Assembly would be dissolved, and new elections held on June 30 and July 7. Whatever the outcome of those elections turns out to be, Emmanuel Macron can remain President until the end of his term, in April 2027. Although it may still seem unlikely now, the Rassemblement National (RN) could become the strongest party in the national parliament, at which point its chairman Jordan Bardella could become Prime Minister. Note that contrary to positions taken by Le Pen’s party in the past, Bardella has insisted that he is not in favor of France leaving NATO or the euro, much less the European Union.
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| As Jacques Cheminade pointed out in a tweet on June 9, the lead candidate of the RN, Jordan Bardella was the first to demand new legislative elections, and then Emmanuel Macron announced them. This can lead to two possibilities, Cheminade wrote, either a “mutually destructive cohabitation” and/or “an even more federalist orientation with a ‘melonization’of France. The respect with which Macron handled Bardella during the Saint Denis meetings, and which, as Bardella himself recognized, gave his campaign credibility, is worth thinking about. As for real sovereignists, they should finally draw the lesson of what has happened, and come together above and beyond personal questions and labels. On the basis of a project to free France from the financial and cultural occupation forces, and internationally, to campaign for a new mutual security and development architecture to break with the weapons build-up oligarchy that is leading us to a Third World War.” |
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| | | The Saint Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) brought together leading actors in the economic and political sectors from many countries in the world to discuss not only trade and investment opportunites, but also fundamental questions related to international relations and to the reorganization of the international financial system to promote cooperation. As Russia currently holds the rotating chairmanship of the BRICS (and BRICS Plus), the prospects and plans of this group were center stage.
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Russian President Putin gave the opening speech at the plenary session on June 7, focussing on the economy, both nationally (cf. below) and internationally, including the changes he considers necessary in international financial arrangements. "It is no secret, of course, that reliability and trust in Western payment systems have been thoroughly undermined, and by the Western countries themselves", he remarked. Concerning Russia, he noted that trade in rubles had increased by 40% between 2020 and 2023. And in 2023, the share of payments for Russian exports in the “toxic currencies” of "unfriendly states" (i.e.,the dollar and the euro) had been cut in half.
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"Together with foreign partners, we will increase the use of national currencies in foreign trade settlements, (and) improve the security and efficiency of such operations", the Russian President stated. "In particular, the BRICS is working on the formation of an independent payment system that is not subject to political pressure, abuse and external sanctions."
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During the long question and answer session following the plenary session, Putin further elaborated on the problem. Given the shrinking of the American economy, and its unsound fundamentals, he pointed out that the BRICS have reacted by creating the New Development Bank and “our own currency instruments.... A significant portion of the participants in international economic activity - are switching to settlements in national currencies. For example, we have 90% of our trade with China, as I have already said, regulated in yuan and rubles. In the post-Soviet space, the share of the ruble is also approaching 70%, that is, our role here is significant. But we must do it together, it will be more thorough.”
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| Vladimir Putin went on to reference a very important discussion that had taken place with special guest President Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa of Zimbabwe regarding investment in African nations. Of course, investments can be increased in Africa, in South Asia and Asia in general, and other rapidly developing countries, he said. |
| | | “But we need instruments that would guarantee these investments and the return (on investment). What can this be based on if not on gold? On the quality of the proposed investment projects. If we ensure the quality - the quality and stability of political regimes - and we will have to do this together, then we can develop such a system of settlements, which will be practically devoid of volatility, will not be volatile, will not be subject to inflation. All this can be done. We discussed this with my friend and colleague, President Xi Jinping during my trip ; we will talk about this with other leaders of the BRICS countries. This is a very important area of joint work." |
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| As Lyndon LaRouche pointed out in all his writings on a currency and trade system, the key to the successful growth of the physical economy is indeed the type and quality of investments that are made and of the credit system that facilitates them. |
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| | | The purpose of the never-ending series of sanctions the West has imposed on Russia, we are told repeatedly, is to weaken the Russian economy, and to force Moscow to accept the “rules-based order”. They have certainly weakened the European economies due to soaring energy prices and the restriction of trade, but what happened in Russia? That question was answered indirectly by Vladimir Putin during his speech to the SPIEF. While one might argue over the details he presented, the overall picture has been confirmed by many.
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The fact that Russia is now in the top four economic producers in terms of purchasing power (PPP), putting it even ahead of Japan, was attributed by Putin to the shift in the orientation to the countries of the Global South. Between 2020 and 2023, trade with Asia grew by 60%; with Africa, by 69%; with Latin America, by 42%; and with the Middle East, it even doubled.
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Importantly, he pointed out that developing these new markets requires a corresponding increase in transportation links. Thus, a number of projects have been undertaken, including several rail lines and sea routes. Overall, by 2030, “the volume of traffic on international transport corridors through the territory of Russia will increase by one and a half times compared to 2021...”
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In other parts of the speech, he underlined how Russia has reduced imports, not through punitive tariffs, but by developing domestic sources for many of the products that previously came from abroad. In both the civilian and military spheres, high-tech development is a priority, all of which requires improvements in the education and professional training systems.
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| Summing up, Vladimir Putin said: |
| | | "The global economy has entered an era of serious, fundamental changes.... There is taking shape a multipolar world with new centers of growth, investment and financial ties between the states and companies. The Russian economy is responding to these challenges and is changing just as dynamically, acquiring a large strength and stability.” |
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| | | In an obscene travesty of history, the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of D-day, the landing of the Allied Forces on the beaches of Normandy on June 6, 1944, was turned into a love fest for war, revenge, and the militarization of society. It coincided with the visit of U.S. President Biden and of special guest President Zelenskyy, both of whom railed against Russia. French President Macron misused the solemn occasion to accuse the Russians, who suffered by far the greatest losses in the war to defeat nazism, of betraying the message of the landings in Normandy.
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In fact, Macron was hoping to profit from the pomp and ceremony to avoid a complete defeat of his party in the European elections a few days later. What he achieved was the opposite (cf. above).
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When Joe Biden met with the Ukrainian President in Paris, he promised another military aid package for Kyiv, this one worth $225 million. According to a Pentagon statement, the package includes missiles for HAWK air defense systems; Stinger anti-aircraft missiles; HIMARS rockets; 155mm Howitzers; 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds; 81mm mortar systems; M113 Armored Personnel Carriers; and various other weapons and equipment.
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On the same day, Emmanuel Macron stated that a coalition of countries has agreed to send military trainers to Ukraine, suggesting that plans could come together in the coming days but not offering concrete details. The Washington Post called his comments the latest sign that France and other allies may now be willing to "put NATO country troops on Ukrainian soil, an idea which some allies, including the United States, have long considered potentially escalatory".
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Otherwise, the French leader announced the transfer of Mirage 2000-5s (no number given), to “enable Ukraine to protect its skies”. In addition, Ukrainian pilots will be trained in France, he said, and he proposed to “train and equip” 4,500 soldiers in Ukraine. He claimed that training camps in “western Ukraine, in the free zone, is not an escalation”.
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| Zelenskyy also addressed the French National Assembly on June 7, where he dismissed Russian President Vladimir Putin's repeated offers of dialogue to end the war, stressing that the current front lines could never be recognized. He will likely defend the same line at the so-called peace conference hosted by Switzerland next weekend, which no one expects to discuss ending the war. |
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| | | Citizens of the world were again shocked and horrified to hear of the killing of over 270 Palestinian refugees on June 8 in an Israeli attack on the Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza, conducted in order to rescue four hostages held by Hamas. Some 700 civilians were injured and the camp was completely destroyed by the bombing and shelling, which the Israeli forces claimed was necessary to free those four.
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At a joint press conference in Paris on the same day, Presidents Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron both welcomed the rescue of the four hostages, and called for the immediate liberation of all the others, but, according to the the White House transcript, had nothing to say about the loss of the Palestinians lives. Even more cynically, Biden’s National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan stated June 9 on CNN that the Administration would continue to work with Israel on rescue operations.
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In fact, there is circumstantial evidence that the pier on the Gaza coast built by the U.S., ostensibly to provide humanitarian aid to the population by sea, was used by Israeli helicopters and that U.S. precision technology contributed to the “success” of the operation.
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Note that just a few days before this atrocious attack, the Israeli Defense Forces had bombed an UNRWA school in central Gaza, killing at least 37 people and injuring dozens more. The IDF claimed the school was used by Hamas terrorists.
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| Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Blinken began another trip to the region on June 9 to push the “peace plan” devised by the White House, which does not provide for an immediate permanent ceasefire by all parties (cf. SAS 23/24). The plan has also been submitted to the UN Security Council, where envoys from China, Russia and Algeria expressed their reservations, and proposed changes. |
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| | | On on the sidelines of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum on June 7, a memorandum of understanding was signed between Russia's state owned nuclear power engineering firm Rosatom and the Republic of Guinea on developing floating nuclear power units (FPUs) for this West African nation. The agreement, according to Vladimir Aptekarev, Deputy Head of Rosatom’s Mechanical Engineering Division, ''involves joint work on developing a power supply solution both to industrial and domestic consumers in the Republic of Guinea, by deploying floating nuclear power units with RITM-200 reactors, which have already proven efficient”.
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This reactor is Rosatom's flagship SMR (small modular reactor) and currently powers the new large Project 22220 icebreakers. Rated at 55 megawatts, it supercedes the less powerful KLT-40s (38 MW), two of which supply power to the Akademik Lomonosov floating power plant. Moreover, a land-based nuclear power plant (NPP) with an RITM-200 reactor is currently being built near Ust-Kuyga in Yakutia in Russia's Arctic north, with the aim of commissioning in 2028 when it will be the first SMR commissioned on the planet.
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These reactors are ideal for producing electricity, process heat, and district heating in particularly remote locations, as well as for desalination purposes. Rosatom clearly intends to fill an order book with them in order to begin building them in series.
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During Russian President Putin’s official visit to Uzbekistan on May 26, an agreement was signed for Rosatom to build an NPP with six RITM-200 reactors for a total of 330 MW in the Jizzakh region of Uzbekistan, with construction work due to begin as early as this summer.
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The Russian nuclear giant has also designed a larger SMR, the VBER-300, which is undergoing final regulatory approval. It is also a pressurized water reactor whose design has been developed from marine reactors. Producing 300 MW, it could be deployed on land or on a floating NPP.
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| Also on the sidelines of SPIEF Rosatom Director General Alexey Likhachev and Burkina Faso's Energy Minister Yacouba Zabre Gouba signed three Memorandums of understanding concerning cooperation on the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. It was agreed that a group of technical specialists from Rosatom will travel to the capital Ouagadougou this month to study where a nuclear power plant would be built and what capacity it would have. |
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