E.I.R.STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Volume 34, No. 1, January 2, 2020 2020,

E.I.R.STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Volume 34, No. 1, January 2, 2020 2020, 

The Year of LaRouche’s Four Laws The year 2020 promises to be a tumultuous one, as the fight for the common aims of mankind escalates. Great changes can be expected, although it is difficult at this point to advance any forecasts, given the many imponderables. One such is the looming collapse of the biggest financial bubble in history. Over the course of 2019, the final financial meltdown was avoided by various “tricks”, leading to the current deceptive calm before the storm. From the IMF to Moody’s rating agency to the City of London’s Economist, warnings have been issued on the coming crash. Even the Economic Council of Germany’s ruling CDU party has sent around a new book, titled The Perfect Storm, pointing to the financial dangers. None of them, however, has proposed any reasonable alternative. Unlike the Schiller Institute, which is committed to escalating the campaign for a banking reform worldwide based on the Glass-Steagall principle, as a first necessary step toward the complete reorganization of the failed financial system, and the implementation of Lyndon LaRouche’s “four laws” for in-depth economic development. That dynamic, in turn, will mitigate the danger of new wars and conflicts based on geopolitical “zero sum” considerations. A crucial battle in strategic terms is being fought in the United States. The month of January will see the continuation of the impeachment process against President Donald Trump, which is primarily aimed, as we have repeatedly written, at preventing him from ending the permanent war, regime change policy in the world and entering into a “win win cooperation” mode with China and Russia, in particular (cf. below). In February, the first primaries will take place in view of the decisive presidential elections in November. As for the European Union, its leaders seem intent on ensuring its own irrelevance by pushing a suicidal “green new deal”. The financial elites came up with the idea in the hopes that a “green bubble” will allow the current speculative casino to survive for a while longer, while others take up the banner for purely ideological, as opposed to scientific, reasons. However, the failure of the Madrid climate conference in December shows that the world at large rejects that no-growth option, preferring instead actual economic development and the accompanying rise in living standards. That brings us to a more positive note. The year 2020 marks the 250th anniversary of the birth of Ludwig von Beethoven. The occasion should be used to not only to celebrate the genius of the great composer, but to make a commitment to revive classical culture and to foster and treasure human creativity, as opposed to the culture of death and pessimism propagated by the environmentalist movement and its financiers. Putsch in Washington: From Permanent Wars to “Permanent Impeachment” The Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives launched a frenzied process in December to pass two articles of impeachment against President Trump before the end of the year. They argued that such speed was essential, because every day he remains in office is a danger to a) national security and b) fair and legitimate elections. Led by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats claimed that Trump’s threats to withhold military aid to Ukraine unless the government there investigated shady dealings of then Vice President Joe Biden and his son Hunter Biden, weakened that country in the face of Russian aggression, while increasing his own chances to be re-elected in the upcoming presidential election. To do so, they deliberately ignored three major factors: there was no actual evidence that Trump had threatened or bullied Ukraine’s President Zelensky for his own personal benefit; the net effect of Trump’s strategic intervention is that there has been progress in reducing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, through talks between Presidents Putin and Zelensky; the investigation by Special Counsel Robert Mueller could not prove Russian intervention on Trump’s behalf in 2016. Moreover, if Nancy Pelosi and her hit team were so convinced that the future of America was urgently imperiled if Trump were not immediately removed from office, why did she then decide to withhold the articles of impeachment from the Senate, thereby postponing a trial there? Further, the Democrats are calling for continued hearings into alleged Trump misdeeds, with some saying that there could be two, three, or more impeachments, as new articles are invented. Some constitutional scholars, such as Alan Dershowitz, have pointed out that not moving ahead with a trial, out of fear that Trump will be acquitted in the Senate, violates the Con- EIR STRATEGIC ALERT 2 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER n° 01 / 2020 stitution! Beyond that, it clearly reflects the intention to tie Donald Trump’s hands over the last year of his present term, and use the destabilization of his presidency to defeat him in November 2020. Above all, they seek to prevent President Trump from pursuing the strategic initiatives he has taken toward Russia and China. Recall that Trump continues to work with Vladimir Putin to resolve a number of issues, including Ukraine and Syria, as well as moving towards a new strategic arms agreement. On China, Presidents Xi and Trump have agreed on a Phase I approach toward a new trade deal, which would benefit both sides, while Trump has rejected Congressional efforts to support a regime change in Hong Kong (cf. below). The decision to proceed to impeachment without any evidence of a crime, and to announce that impeachment efforts will not be stopped by the failure to convict in the Senate, means that those in the Military Industrial Complex, acting through their stooges in both parties, will stop at nothing to continue their dangerous geopolitical machinations, even if it leads to a nuclear World War III. The supporters of “permanent war” are now backing “permanent impeachment.” Hence, the urgent need to fully document and expose their coup. Nord Stream 2 Project at Center of Geopolitical Battle Stopping two natural gas pipeline projects from Russia to Europe (Nord Stream 2 and TurkStream) is an integral part of the confrontation scenario against Russia pushed by transatlantic geopoliticians. The United States Congress just upped the ante by passing a law that would sanction all companies, predominantly European, involved in the projects. The sanctions could include visa denials for leading officials of those companies as well as the seizure of bank accounts and property they own in the U.S. Germany is the main target of the measures, since the Nord Stream 2 pipeline would enter Europe on German territory, after crossing the Baltic Sea from Russia (without transiting through Ukraine). The German government has protested the sanctions as being against international law and entirely driven by political motives, while declaring its intent to stick to the project. Even the government of Ukraine, whose interests the Congress claims to defend, has stated its opposition to sanctions against Germany, which it considers a political ally and supporter. And the new EU Commission Chair Ursula von der Leyen has also rejected the retaliatory measures. Nonetheless, the threats from the U.S. side have forced the Dutch-Swiss firm Allseas, which has been laying the underwater pipes in the Baltic Sea, to pull out. Nearly 90% of the pipes are already in place, and the Russian Energy Ministry has stated its intent to complete the remaining 200 km with a vessel of its own. But the only vessel available is presently operating on the far-eastern coast of Russia and would need several weeks to arrive in the Baltic Sea. The delays caused by this and by the fact that the Russian vessel’s capacity is considerably smaller than that of Allseas, mean Europe will have to wait until the end of 2020 at least for the first gas deliveries. When completed, Nord Stream 2 is expected to pump 55 billion cubic meters of gas annually, meaning Russia would provide one third of Europe’s total natural gas imports. As for the Russian government, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov denounced the move by Congress in harsh words, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said it was still too early to discuss the possible introduction of sanctions against Washington, but “such actions cannot remain without a response,” Neither Germany nor the EU Commission have made public so far whether they are considering counter-sanctions and what they might be. German industry, on the contrary, has supported retaliatory measures. Less has been heard about the TurkStream project, which is to transport Russia gas under the Black Sea to Turkey in the first phase, and then in a later string to south eastern and southern Europe. The pipeline has already been laid, and the Turkish energy ministry has reiterated its firm intent to launch deliveries as of Jan. 8, as scheduled. EMP Marco Zanni: We Need Bank Separation, Not the ESM Marco Zanni is chairman of the “Identity and democracy” faction in the European Parliament and and foreign policy spokesman for the Italian Lega, the second largest political group in the Parliament in Strasbourg. In the last legislature, he led a campaign for a true banking reform, based on the Glass-Steagall principle of strict separation between commercial banks and investment banks. That fight is more urgent than ever, as the global financial system is headed toward a second, larger collapse, and government and central banks are preparing to bail out the speculators, whatever it takes. In a discussion with our co-editor Claudio Celani on Christmas Eve, Marco Zanni noted that “neither the ECB nor the European institutions are aware of the huge risks within our financial system. There are strong signs of stress. You mentioned the repo and liquidity crisis in the United States. We also have problems in the EU, because the ECB refuses to assess properly the real value of illiquid assets (level 3) in the balance sheets of European banks. So, European institutions fail to assess the real risk in the financial system. They are again putting emphasis on the sustainability of government debt, but the European and especially the Italian government debt is perfectly sustainable. We have big risks in the private sector and the EU and ECB refuse to assess properly or to consider actions to tackle the huge risks that are evident to everyone now.” For Zanni, the so-called European Stability Mechanism, which the EU is pushing to set up as a safety net for both banks and governments, is a joke. When the banking crisis erupts, the bill to be footed will be much higher than the 700 billion euros available at the ESM. Moreover, increased capital buffers for banks won’t work either. “The right way is to act on preventing the financial crisis. That is a safe way to make our financial system sustainable. We have worked since 2014, I have worked in the European Parliament and in the European institutions, to protect the healthy part of our banks and separate what we don’t need, what is speculative debt that is just feeding a big financial bubble in our system. History shows that in the end, this bubble will burst and taxpayers will have to pay for the mistakes and the speculation of bankers.” Although EU member states could introduce a Glass-Steagall bank protection at national level, (“the Lega had banking EIR STRATEGIC ALERT n° 01 / 2020 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER 3 separation in its 2018 program”), nevertheless “the reform should not be limited to the national sectors; it should be developed at European level for all EU countries. This will make our financial system safer, because our banks are deeply interconnected.” While there is no majority for that reform in the institutions now, Zanni believes that “at some point, in the next five years [the current EP legislature], the financial crisis will force European legislators to consider banking separation as a strong action to stabilize our financial system and make it safer.” Helga Zepp-LaRouche Calls for Immediate Withdrawal of Bundeswehr from Afghanistan A trove of documents obtained by the Washington Post and published on Dec. 9 highlights the complete failure of U.S. policy in the “perpetual war” zone of Afghanistan. The 2,000 pages of the Afghanistan Papers include interviews with more than 400 insiders from the Pentagon conducted since 2014, who describe the utter incompetence of the strategy adopted.. Their publication by the Washington Post may signal that a national policy reassessment is under way. The article by Craig Whitlock notes that 775,000 soldiers have been deployed to Afghanistan since 2001, resulting in 2,300 dead and over 20,000 wounded (not counting PTSD victims), with a price tag just shy of $1 trillion (not including CIA or VA hospital care expenses). The additional deaths of Afghan security forces, Taliban fighters, and civilians brings the total to over 157,000 since 2001. For Germany, according to Helga Zepp-LaRouche, the only consequence one can draw is that the German armed forces need to pull out of Afghanistan immediately. In an article written Dec. 212, she notes that the documents newly released completely vindicate the objections she herself raised from the beginning to the German deployment, including in a webcast in August 2005. She noted at the time that the planned economic reconstruction of the country had not even been launched, but that the cultivation of drugs had reached a record level. ADD LINK In 2010, the Civil Rights Movement Solidarity, the party Zepp-LaRouche heads, published a White Paper again calling for the withdrawal of the Bundeswehr. from Afganistan”. It stated “There is absolutely no reason why a single soldier from the German army should remain deployed for even one more day in Afghanistan. This war, which never should have begun in the first place, and whose supposed goals, after nine long years, are never even mentioned anymore, is just a trap for 42 of the 43 nations involved, in a conflict that serves not least to support the British Empire’s third opium war.” In fact, it was already well known that the production of opium in the in the British-controlled Helmand Province of Afghanistan, had increased 40-fold during the war. Now, just as then, Helga Zepp-LaRouche has called on the government to proceed with a complete review and reappraisal of the military deployment there. But she cautions that it must take into account the geopolitical role of Afghanistan in the “Great Game” strategy of the British Empire as well as the “Islamic Card” strategy of Zbigniew Brzezinski, and more recently the Bush and Obama support for so-called moderate rebels in South-West Asia. As for the German government, the Afghanistan Papers raise fundamental questions. “Either the German government knew about the real state of the situation on the ground, and they are therefore co-responsible for the horrendous human and financial costs of the war, or they did not know, which means that the US military leaders did not deem it necessary to inform their NATO allies.” In any case, she continues, there is reason enough for Germany not only to refuse to participate in any further NATO adventures, including in eastern Europe, but to support “the dissolution of NATO and its replacement by a global security architecture that corresponds to Germany’s security interests.” For Afghanistan itself, Helga Zepp-LaRouche concludes, “the way to help that country is through a comprehensive economic reconstruction program for all of South-West Asia, that builds the New Silk Road all the way to Africa.” Nuclear Power Is Best Option for Africa, and Not Just for Electricity An article published Dec. 23 in Sustainability Times notes that despite the goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions imposed on African countries, it is “unlikely that the continent’s energy needs can be met by renewables alone.” Combining the latter with nuclear power, however, would make “the task of powering Africa’s growing economies more viable – not to mention the other useful and often overlooked aspects that nuclear can contribute to development.” (See https://www. sustainability-times.com/expert-opinions/can-nuclear-unlockafricas-development/). Indeed, this article by Maruan Basic is of special interest in that it presents the broader potential of nuclear technology to foster real economic development for the African continent, as proposed for decades by Lyndon LaRouche. Maruan Basic, an analyst at the French Society for Nuclear Energy (SFEN), explains that, beyond the generation of electricity, the high-temperature process heat produced by many advanced nuclear designs can be used “in desalination plants, chemical production and even district heating systems.” Desalination of abundant sea water is particularly key, as freshwater sources decline globally, and to offset recurrent droughts. In agriculture as well, notes Basic, “isotopes and radiation techniques are harnessed to combat pests and diseases or to increase livestock and crop production.” They have proven very effective. On the level of energy production as well, Africa’s needs are tremendous. The International Energy Agency recently reported that 57% of Africa’s population still does not have easy access to electricity, and those that do have to face frequent power outages. At present, the only operating nuclear power plant in Africa is the 1.8-GW Koeberg Nuclear Power Station north of Cape Town, in South Africa. Russia is actively offering assistance on that level, as discussed at the recent Russia-Africa Forum held in Sochi on the Black Sea. Russia’s Rosatom is now building a nuclear plant for Egypt, while agreements or at least statements of intent on establishing nuclear facilities have been signed with Ethiopia, Sudan, Kenya, Uganda, Nigeria, Rwanda, Zambia and Ghana. The El Dabaa Nuclear Power Plant in Egypt, which will comprise four VVER-1200 reactors, or water-water energetic reactors, is to EIR STRATEGIC ALERT 4 WEEKLY NEWSLETTER n° 01 / 2020 be financed with a Russian loan of about $25 billion to cover 85% of the costs, and Egypt paying the remainder over a period of 13 years. Chinese nuclear firms have entered into agreements with Kenya, Sudan and Uganda. End the McCarthyite Witch Hunt against China! Executive Intelligence Review (EIR) in the United States has released a pamphlet exposing how the same networks and people that are running the attempted coup against President Donald Trump are also behind the hysterical anti-China campaign. The objective in both cases is to sabotage the establishment of friendly relations between the two powers. The China-bashing is run in close collaboration with the Democratic Party leadership, neo-conservative elements in the Republican Party and the corrupt mass media. Their campaign involves open, unabashed promotion of a “color revolution” in Hong Kong and of separatist elements in China’s Xinjiang province, while accusing President Xi Jinping of being a ruthless dictator. The pamphlet, titled End the McCarthyite Witch Hunt Against China and President Trump, includes an introduction by Helga Zepp-LaRouche, in which she reviews the phenomenal development within China since the “reform and opening up” policy under Deng Xiaoping, which is now close to reaching the goal of fully eliminating poverty in China. It also exposes the campaign led by FBI Director Christopher Wray to accuse Chinese persons working or studying in the United States, and even leading American scientists of Chinese descent, of being potential spies who must be investigated. Universities and scientific institutions have been ordered to spy on their Chinese and Chinese-American employees or face losing federal funding for their programs. The project has driven leading researchers, including on cancer and Parkinson’s disease, out of their jobs, while terrorizing people of Chinese descent across America. Another chapter exposes the perverse Falun Gong cult as a front for the warhawks, led by Stephen Bannon, to induce Trump supporters to swallow the McCarthyite lie that China is out to take over the world and impose anti-American communist dictatorships worldwide. In addition to presenting the transformation worldwide due to the Belt and Road Initiative, the pamphlet also contains a historical part of US-China relations. It can be read and downloaded at https://larouchepub.com/special_ report/2019/20191123-EndChinaWitchhunt.pdf China Takes on New Space Challenges in 2020 Following a record-setting year for total space launches and the first-ever landing of a spacecraft on the far side of the Moon, 2020 will be the year when China takes on challenges in three space exploration missions simultaneously: developing the infrastructure for a permanent manned presence in space; the more intensive exploration of the Moon; and the first Chinese planetary mission. In all three areas, China’s steady progress has laid the basis for ground-breaking developments. But in order to take a leap into new exploration territory, an advancement had to be made in rocket technology. * For manned spaceflight, China has orbited two Tiangong space modules in the past, in order to gain experience in longer orbital flight. The Tiangong modules each weigh 8.5 tons. The core module of China’s space station, which has been slated to launch in 2020, weighs 20 tons, requiring the Long March 5 rocket. * China has already twice placed landers and rovers on the Moon. But the next lunar mission, Chang’e-5, adds an additional element -- a fourth spacecraft with a new propulsion system, to take off from the surface of the Moon and bring rocks and soil back to Earth. Such a lunar sample return mission will alow scientists to carry out intensive studies of the Moon and the Solar System in their laboratories with the most advanced scientific equipment. The last robotic lunar sample return mission was carried out by the Soviet Union in the mid-1970s. * A number of nations have sent spacecraft to Mars, but only the U.S. has landed any successfully on the red planet. Because 2020 presents an exceptionally good year to launch from the Earth to Mars, due to the orbital relationship of the two planets, nearly a half dozen nations are lining up to make an attempt. But China plans to do what no other country has ever done on its very first mission to Mars: to send not only an orbiter to observe the planet from a distance, but a lander and rover as well. There is significant flexibility in timing for missions to Earth orbit, such as the space station, or to our nearest neighbor. But not to Mars. Using chemical propulsion, which is all that is available at the present time, the journey, which can take seven months, can only take place every 26 months. So if the Long March 5 rocket were to fail on the upcoming launch, no Chinese Mars mission would be possible for two years. The second Long March 5 launch, in July 2017, failed due to an engine failure. The first stage engine has been re-engineered and ground tested, and on Dec. 27, successfully placed the Shijian-20 technology experimental satellite weighing over eight tons, into orbit; the heaviest and most advanced communications satellite in the country. The high-throughput communications satellite is designed to service the Silk Road countries, commentators explained. The successful launch should give the go-ahead for the Earth orbital, lunar, and Mars missions scheduled to fly this year. E.I.R. STRATEGIC ALERT www.eir.de Published by: E.I.R.GmbH, Bahnstr. 4, 65205 Wiesbaden Tel.: 0611/73650, Fax: 0611/9740935, Email: info@eir.com Verantwortl. f. d. Inhalt: Dean Andromidas, Claudio Celani Subscription: EUR 3000/ ISSN 0936-7527 © E.I.R. GmbH Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch die des Nachdrucks von Auszügen, derphotomechanischen Wiedergabe und der Übersetzung, Printed in Germany Offenlegung gemäß § 5 des hessischen Landespressegesetzes E.I.R. Strategic Alert Weekly Newsletter erscheint im Verlag der E.I.R. GmbH. Wiesbaden. Geschäftsführer der E.I.R. GmbH sind Herr Georg Neudecker und Herr Josef Stalleicher, beide Wiesbaden. Gesellschafter der E.I.R. 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