Your STRATEGIC ALERT 11/09/2022STRATEGIC ALERT Service μέσω sendingservice.net |
| 9 Νοε 2022, 6:01 μ.μ. (πριν από 15 ώρες)
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STRATEGIC ALERT NEWSLETTER
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| | | We in Europe are bombarded daily with terrifying news about ruthless dictators, such as Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping, who are out to conquer the West, militarily and economically, and to destroy Western “values”. In response, we are asked to accept “sacrifices”, including a collapse in living standards. The effect of the propaganda on the population, however, is wearing thin, as NATO allies escalate their provocations.
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Schiller Institute founder Helga Zepp-LaRouche addressed this issue in an article dated Nov. 5: “The current strategic confrontation is not one of ‘democracies’ against ‘autocracies’. It is exclusively about the determination of the U.S. and the U.K. to assert their right to be the sole world power. To this end, they have launched a confrontation against Russia and China, in which Germany and all of Europe are in the gravest danger of being pulverized.
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“The real conflict is between the forces in the world that intend to maintain the worn-out concept of a unipolar, imperial and colonialist world order and the absolute majority of the nations of this world that are determined to overcome colonialism forever, and to leave poverty and underdevelopment behind. These countries are in the process of building a completely new economic system.”
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This was discussed at length at an online press conference organized by EIR on Nov. 5 (cf. below). It took place just three days before the mid-term elections in the United States, which may turn out to be decisive for the escalation – or the de-escalation -- of the conflict with Russia at least. Colonel Richard Black, the former head of the U.S. Army’s Criminal Law Division at the Pentagon, noted in his presentation that the “war party” in the United States was panicked by the prospect that the Republicans will take back a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, and then reduce the unlimited quantities of aid currently provided to Ukraine for the proxy war against Russia, as well as cutting the funds for weapons producers. This prospect, in his view and that of many observers, “has accelerated the drive toward World War III, which is well underway”. Note that the new Congress will not be seated until January 3, 2023.
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Among the recent provocations involving NATO countries are the sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, the deadly explosion on the Kerch Bridge connecting Russia to Crimea, the attack on the Russian fleet in Sevastopol, the demonstrative surfacing of two U.S. ballistic missile submarines, on two separate occasions, one in the Arabian Sea and the other in Gibraltar, as well as the recent release of Washington’s new nuclear doctrine (cf. below).
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| A completely different approach to international relations will be discussed on Nov. 12 at the upcoming Schiller Institute conference devoted to the great scientist and humanist Vladimir Vernadsky (cf. below). |
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| | | As Anglo-American officials continue to throw out baseless allegations that President Putin is threatening to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine, the U.S. is changing its strategic posture in preparation to fight a nuclear war. The release on Oct. 27 of the Defense Department's 2022 National Defense Strategy (NDS) document shows the intent to engage in permanent warfare. It is centered around the idea of an "integrated deterrent", which is described as "working seamlessly across warfighting domains, theaters, the spectrum of conflict, all instruments of U.S. national power, and our networks of Alliances and partnerships."
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Toward this end, Defense Secretary Austin writes in his introduction that for the first time, the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) and the Missile Defense Review are included in the NDS "in an integrated way, ensuring tight linkages between our strategy and our resources." He then states that this will allow the U.S. to "sustain and strengthen our deterrence", aimed primarily at China, which he calls the "pacing challenge" for the U.S., and Russia for its "reckless" and "irresponsible behavior" in Ukraine.
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Including the NPR is of particular note, as it presents a change in U.S. policy regarding the first use of nuclear weapons. According to nuclear disarmament expert Scott Ritter, the language in the report leaves the issue of when the United States might use nuclear weapons deliberately ambiguous, including the possibility that the U.S. might launch a preemptive nuclear attack in response to a non-nuclear incident -- thus significantly lowering the threshold for nuclear war. Schiller Institute chairwoman Helga Zepp LaRouche described this specific shift in U.S. policy, which began under the George W. Bush administration but is more explicit in this report, as a sign of insanity, as it represents the commitment to engage in permanent warfare in defense of the collapsing unipolar order, up to and including the use of nuclear weapons.
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The same day the new NDS was released, an article was published in Foreign Affairs, the journal of the Council on Foreign Relations, titled "Could America Win a New World War? What It Would Take to Defeat Both China and Russia". The author, Thomas Mahnken, calls for massive military upgrades to allow the United States to wage war simultaneously against both China in the Pacific and Russia in Eastern Europe.
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| Then, on Nov. 3, the commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, Admiral Charles Richard issued a chilling war cry, arguing that the United States needs to undertake a major mobilization comparable to what was done to get to the Moon by 1969 (!) - in order to produce new nuclear warfare capabilities, to deal with China. Calling the present war in Ukraine "just the warmup," he said, "The big one is coming. And it isn’t going to be very long before we’re going to get tested in ways that we haven’t been tested a long time. We have to do some rapid, fundamental change in the way we approach the defense of this nation…." |
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| | | An extraordinary press availability organized by EIR on Nov. 5, brought together military, security and diplomatic experts from both sides of the Atlantic, together with “gutsy young” citizen activists.
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The tense but animated discussion featured highly instructive exchanges between French and American retired military officers and intelligence experts on the global security architecture needed.
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The event, which was extended well beyond its planned two hours, established two critical ideas for participants and the many viewers:
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* The danger of nuclear war, which stems not from Russia and China but from the policies and actions of the West’s drive to maintain hegemony, is extreme, and must be remedied. That no “tactical” or “limited” nuclear war is possible; our only options are peace or nuclear “Armageddon,” which would destroy life on this planet;
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* There are qualified and moral people, young and old, prepared to lead others, as the temperament of citizens on both sides of the Atlantic begins to shift from passivity to militant actions, to overturn the current paradigm of war and financial looting.
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The discussion remoralized and energized the speakers, as well as the journalists and activists who asked questions and offered their thoughts after them. After opening remarks by Diane Sare, an independent LaRouche candidate for Senate for New York State, the annihilating effects of a thermonuclear war were made graphically clear in a powerpoint presentation by Steven Starr, retired director of the University of Missouri’s Clinical Laboratory Science Program and an expert on nuclear war. That picture was backed up by former chief UN weapons inspector Scott Ritter. The French speakers were Colonel Alain Corvez (ret.), a former international relations advisor to the French Foreign Ministry, and Gen. Dominique Delawarde (ret.), the former liaison officer to the U.S. War College in Kansas, as well as former French presidential candidate Jacques Cheminade. On the American side, the panelists also included Col. Richard Black (ret.), a former State Senator of Virginia, Dr. Clifford Kiracofe, President of the Washington Institute for Peace and Development, and Ray McGovern, former senior analyst for the CIA.
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| | | Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision to meet with President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Nov. 4 was taken despite the fierce opposition from his own coalition partner, the Greens, on the domestic level, as well as many international voices, including the Atlantic Council.
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On the eve of his visit, Scholz himself penned an article in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung stressing his intention to “improve relations” with China, rather than more escalation, and to work with the Chinese on solutions to numerous global challenges (hunger, climate change, crisis hot spots), and on developing bilateral economic cooperation. “We don’t want to decouple” from China, he stated.
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Xi Jinping welcomed the visit, according to a report on China Central Television, telling the German leader he was confident that the visit “will strengthen mutual understanding and trust of the two countries, deepen practical cooperation in different areas, and outline plans for the further development of China-Germany relations.” Although the global situation “is complex and volatile”, he noted that “as influential powers, China and Germany must work together in an unstable environment and chaos to make a greater contribution to world peace and development". He also noted that this year is the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.
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In addition to the topics mentioned, Chancellor Scholz urged Xi to use China’s role in the Permanent Five of the UN Security Council as well as Beijing’s communication channels to Moscow to help de-escalate global tensions over the Ukraine issue, including the danger of escalation into a nuclear conflict.
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It is worth noting that the divergence of views between China and the West, for example on “human rights”, was addressed by Scholz in his meeting with Prime Minister Li Keqiang, focusing the discussion with Xi on the more constructive topics of cooperation and relations.
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Interviewed by CCTV as well as CGTN on the visit, Schiller Institute President Helga Zepp-LaRouche called it a “trendsetter” for other leaders in the West, particularly in Europe, meaning that they should take this visit as a model and enter into constructive relationships with the Chinese. She also stressed on several occasions that decoupling from China, as promoted by many in Germany, including Economy Minister Robert Habeck and Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, both of the Green Party, would mean the deindustrialization of Germany.
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| As for the CEOs of the dozen major German industries who accompanied Olaf Scholz to China, projects for investments and joint ventures in the range of about €20 billion were announced or confirmed, the largest of which is the project of BASF for a new production site in Guangdong in the range of 10 billion. It was confirmed that BMW would take over 75% of the shares in its joint venture with Brilliance Automotives, a decision already taken in February, and also that Volkswagen would undertake four new investment projects . |
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| | | In remarks to a party event on Nov. 5, the chairman of the SPD’s parliamentary group, Rolf Mützenich, noted that he had been put on the "terror list" of Kiev’s CCD (Center for Countering Disinformation), for “advocating a cease-fire in Ukraine”. Being targeted, he added, led to “secondary threats” against those named. Our readers are well aware of the existence of two such hit lists posted by the CCD, which include many members and associates of the Schiller Institute, including Helga Zepp-LaRouche right on top (cf. SAS 31-42/22). The German government and the SPD have also known about it for months, but chose not to make an issue of it before this.
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The media did feel compelled to cover Mützenich’s remarks. But most of them gave even more prominence to the offical denial of the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry, which claimed the government had no such list – although it is firmly established that the CCD is under the responsibility of the National Security and Defense Council (and also receives funding from the U.S. State Department and British official agencies). Note that shortly after this news broke, the second list also disappeared from the CCD website, following on the suppression of the first list after an international campaign launched by the Schiller Institute.
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ARD, Germany’s Channel One TV, played down the role of the CCD in its coverage, and other mainstream media also defended the need for Kiev to counter “Russian disinformation” -- presumably by whatever means, including threatening foreigners who call for a negotiated end to the war.
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| But this is certainly not the end of the affair, since Mützenich is a long-standing personal ally of Chancellor Scholz, and has intervened several times in public to counter aggressive statements by the Greens criticizing his policies. In a Nov. 4 interview with the national public radio Deutschlandfunk, he defended the Chancellor’s visit to China (cf. above). As for remarks by Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (of the Greens), who had reminded Scholz of the coalition agreement to work out new restrictive guidelines for China policies, Mützenich called them "rude" and "unprecedented". Note that Scholz also overrode the loud objections of the Greens, by approving the investment of China’s shipping company COSCO in the seaport of Hamburg (cf. SAS 44/22). |
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| | | In February of this year, the Swiss government adopted the EU sanctions against Russia, thus breaking a 500 year-long tradition of neutrality in foreign policy. One consequence of that choice is that Switzerland is no longer in a position to mediate the conflict or offer a venue for negotiations. The overwhelming majority of the Swiss population, on the contrary, is in favor of maintaining neutrality, and an initiative for a popular referendum on the issue has been launched, with a high probability of success.
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Every year, the government commissions an opinion poll on security issues. Last February, just before the Ukrainian war, support for neutrality in foreign and security policy was at 97%, one point higher than the previous year. A supplementary poll commissioned in June showed that the support had decreased, as a logical result of the media bombardment over the war. However, 89% of the population was still in favor of maintaining neutrality.
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Just after the first poll, historic leader of the Swiss Popular Party Christoph Blocher announced in March a ballot initiative, called “Pro Souveräne Schweiz” (PSS), aimed at introducing a clause in the Swiss constitution making sanctions formally a violation of neutrality. In light of the polls, the initiative will have very strong support, but it could take a long time. According to Swiss law, to carry out a popular initiative, 100,000 signatures must be collected within 18 months maximum. The SPP planned to start collecting signatures as of Nov. 8. Once they are submitted to the authorities, the government and Parliament must deliberate. If they oppose it, they can present a counter-proposal, which would delay the initiative up to three and a half years.
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| This, however, would pit the country's elected officials against an overwhelming majority of their voters. Once the signature collection has begun, the speed at which the target is reached will confirm the general sentiment of the population. This will already be visible in the first weeks of organizing, and will send a political signal to Bern as well as to all European capitals. |
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| | | The Trans Afghan Railway Corridor is a long-overdue project that could transform the economy of Afghanistan. Starting in Uzbekistan, in the border town of Termez, which is already a rail depot center, the line is planned to stretch to Mazar-i-Sharif in the northern Afghan Balkh Province, then on to Kabul, and from there, to Peshawar, in North-Western Pakistan. There, the railway could hook up to the existing lines going south, via Islamabad, to the ports of Karachi or Gwadar on the Indian Ocean. If carried out, Afghanistan, as well as the landlocked countries of Central Asia, will gain access to the sea, and trade will hopefully soar.
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But investments are needed. When the West, and above all the United States, left Afghanistan abruptly just over one year ago, they cut off all relations to the Taliban regime that took over and left the country to fend for itself, with Washington shamelessly freezing assets of the Afghan Central Bank. Today, the humanitarian situation on the ground is among the worst in the world. It would be in Europe’s own interest to help finance the project. Otherwise, the major investor in transportation and other infrastructure in the entire region is China.
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In that context, two prominent Uzbekis were in Europe last week -- Ambassador Ismatulla Irgashev, the President’s special representative for Afghanistan, and Akmal Kamalov, the Vice-Chair of Uzbek Railways -- to seek direct foreign investment in the Trans-Afghan railway, also known as the “Kabul Corridor”.
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At a briefing in Brussels on Nov. 4, Akmal Kamalov presented the progress made so far on the project, which would cost an estimated $5.96 billion and take five years to build. It would proceed diagonally across Afghanistan for 573 km. The Uzbek and Pakistani governments jointly carried out a survey expedition, in July and August, on part of the line, which would include five tunnels.
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| Concerning the refusal of Western countries to deal with the Taliban, Ambassador Irgashev called for a “critical and pragmatic” dialogue with Kabul, a policy his country is already carrying out in its efforts to support the Afghan people suffering from hunger and cold. In his 30 years of dealing with Afghanistan, he said he has seen a real change in the Taliban. Nonetheless, the Taliban must learn to share power, which can only happen, in his view, through dialogue. According to the EU Reporter, he added that the international community has an obligation to bring about a lasting peace in Afghanistan. |
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| | | What effect would a nuclear war have on our planet’s climate?
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If that were the central issue to be addressed at the Climate Change Conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, it would be a useful event for the future of life on Earth. But since it’s not, this year’s COP27 promises to be just as much a waste of time as the previous galas, including last November’s in Glasgow (cf. SAS 41-45/21). Especially since the priority of the global financial oligarchy has shifted these past months to the war against Russia and China, throwing certain climate goals out the window.
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Nonetheless, since the conference is taking place in Africa, more attention than usual has been given to concerns of the poorest countries. It is useful to recall that African countries are responsible for only 4% of the world’s carbon emissions, and yet, they are supposed to sacrifice their own development to help European countries meet their goals.
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The view of the City of London on this was expressed by The Economist, in a Nov. 3 article, whose lengthy title says it all: “The world is missing its lofty climate targets. Time for some realism. Global warming cannot be limited to 1.5°C.” There’s just not enough money in developed countries to achieve that goal.
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Therefore, The Economist comes up with some unworkable proposal about getting middle-income countries, with some level of industrial development (Brazil, India, China, South Africa, Argentina, Indonesia), to work with the rich countries “to mobilize private investment”. The fact of the matter is that the $100 billion per year of “climate finance” that wealthy countries promised to provide in 2010 have still not materialized to this day!
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The hypocrisy of the western elites that demand the Global South cut energy consumption and ban the development of fossil fuels is highlighted in an article in the Bharat Times by Tejal Kanitkar and Ankita Ranjan, of the National Institute of Advanced Studies in Bengaluru. In a few figures, they contrast the situations in developed and developing countries.
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“Sub-Saharan Africa has an average annual per capita electricity consumption of 487 kilowatt-hours (kWh), with an infant mortality rate of 73 per 1,000 live births; The maternal mortality ratio is 534 per 100,000 live births, and the GDP per capita is $1,645. On the other hand, the OECD group of countries has a per capita electricity consumption of 7,750 kWh, corresponding to an infant mortality rate of seven, a maternal mortality rate of 18, and a per capita GDP of $42,098.”
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| They futher point out that in the United States, “81% of primary energy is from fossil fuels. In Europe, fossil fuels account for 76% of energy consumption”. Moreover, coal consumption in the US and the European Union is projected to “increase by 3% and 7%, respectively”, in 2022. |
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| | | The Schiller Institute will hold an online conference on the above theme this coming Saturday, November 12, from 15:00 to 20:00 Central European time, at https://schillerinstitute.com/. We quote from the invitation to the event:
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“In this time of great political tumult, of controversy concerning the positive role of human technological progress, and of the growing danger, whether through design or miscalculation, of military conflict between thermonuclear powers, the revolutionary ideas of the great Soviet, Russian–Ukrainian scientist Vladimir Vernadsky (1863–1945) demand to be examined and studied. This is particularly true of Vernadsky’s concept of the noösphere, the physical-economic sphere by means of which human scientific thought becomes the predominant force in our universe.
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“Amid calls to divide the world into ideological camps, the concept of the noösphere demands a new paradigm, one that brings humanity closer together rather than further apart.
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“Central to the noösphere is maintaining a fundamental commitment to the advancement of science, that is, to realizing those fundamental breakthroughs in scientific thought, which, when implemented in the productive process, enhance the power of man in the biosphere. While Vernadsky’s primary scientific contribution was his discovery of the powerful function of “living matter” in transforming and enhancing the very nature of the underlying inert universe through the “migration of atoms,” so too he saw that man, through the development of his scientific thought, was having a similar effect on transforming and enhancing the work of the biosphere.
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“Towards the close of Vernadsky’s life, as World War II was coming to an end, he insisted that it was urgent for countries to unite their forces in working together to realize the common aims of mankind, a commitment which he shared with the Soviet Union’s wartime ally, America’s Franklin Delano Roosevelt.
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“This symposium is dedicated to reviving the name, ideas, heritage, and mission of this seminal scientist. We have assembled noted scientists from around the world to come together to discuss fundamental scientific advances being made, or soon to be made, in their respective fields of activity, many of which were also fields of inquiry for Vernadsky. In the afternoon, we will discuss some of the physical engineering projects underway in various parts of the world to improve the condition of mankind -- to develop the noösphere.”
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| | | In Europa werden wir täglich mit Schreckensnachrichten bombardiert: Skrupellose Diktatoren wie Wladimir Putin oder Xi Jinping wollen angeblich den Westen militärisch und wirtschaftlich erobern und die westlichen Werte zerstören; deshalb sollen wir „Opfer“ in Kauf nehmen, nicht zuletzt einen Einbruch des Lebensstandards. Die Wirkung der Propaganda auf die Bevölkerung läßt allerdings nach, da NATO-Verbündete ihre Provokationen intensivieren.
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Helga Zepp-LaRouche befaßt sich damit in einem Artikel vom 5.11.:
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| „Es geht bei der gegenwärtigen strategischen Konfrontation nicht um |
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