E.I.R.STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Volume 32, No. 32-33, August 9, 2018

E.I.R.STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
Volume 32, No. 32-33, August 9, 2018

The World Is Already More Peaceful  Thanks to the BRI This newsletter has often quoted the founder of the International Schiller Institute, Helga Zepp-LaRouche, in stressing the beneficial effects of the Belt and Road Initiative, not only economically, but also as a stabilizing factor and a game changer in global relations and regional and local conflicts. This is already visible in a number of hot spots: India-Pakistan: as we reported last week, the victory of Prime Minister-elect Imran Kahn has created for the first time the potential to settle the historical conflict between the two nuclear powers. Kahn has made it clear that he will favor a rapprochement with India in the framework of the Belt and Road perspective. Horn of Africa: the hitherto hostile states of Somalia, Djibouti, Eritrea and Ethiopia are massively expanding their diplomatic and economic relations (see below), thanks in large part to Chinese investments, such as in the construction of the railway from Djibouti to Addis Ababa. North and South Korea: despite the perennially negative media coverage, negotiations between North Korea and South Korea and the US are progressing, and it was made known that a leading North Korean government member, perhaps Chairman Kim himself, may speak before the upcoming UN General Assembly in New York. Syria: the government has begun the economic reconstruction of Aleppo. The first step is to rebuild the infrastructure, the second involves targeted help for every family, and the third step will see refugees return. The Russian military has helped create a refugee center and the first refugees are already coming back from Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. How much have you read about these developments in the mainstream Western media? And has anyone put them in context for you, showing the underlying dynamic, or the “spirit of the New Silk Road”, which is making all this possible? That is why you need this newsletter. It is essential not to fall into the trap of cultural pessimism nurtured by the “TINA” party, which claims “there Is no alternative” to the failed Western neo-liberal system. As Helga Zepp-LaRouche urges in her Aug. 4 article, European nations and the U.S., rather than arrogantly and egotistically claiming their own superiority and thereby ending up on the margins of history at the expense of their own populations, “should accept the offers from China and Russia for cooperation and
contributing to shaping the New Paradigm” (cf.
https://www.
solidaritaet.com/neuesol/2018/32/hzl.ht m ) Trump Takes on the “Fifth Column”  among Republicans A long overdue battle has broken out within the Republican Party, as President Trump is finally addressing the “fifth column” among Republicans, who have worked with his Democratic opponents, to sabotage his efforts to transform American strategic and economic policy. It is well known that Republican Senators, such as John McCain, Lindsey Graham, Bob Corker and Ben Sasse joined with Democratic leaders Charles Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, among others, to denounce his summits with North Korean Chairman Kim and Russian President Putin. To counter his efforts, they are introducing legislation to enact even more harsh sanctions against Russia, following on the CAATSA Act of August 2017 which  passed the Senate by a 98-2 margin. What is less well-known is that the same networks have prevented him from moving ahead with his campaign promises to restore Glass-Steagall banking regulation and major infrastructure funding. Key to these networks is the campaign money machine associated with Charles and David Koch, phony conservatives who in reality are neo-liberal libertarians. By openly attacking such machines, Trump can clarify for his supporters who and what is standing in the way of a final, complete break with the failed policy approach of his predecessors, Bush and Obama, who acted on behalf of the interests of the City of London and Wall Street, and who promoted American “unilateralist” geopolitics as their core concept. The Trump-Koch brothers feud predates the 2016 election. In 2015, the Kochs invited Republican hopefuls to a donor conference, to decide who to support in 2016. Trump opponents Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz were invited, but Trump was not. In response, he tweeted “good luck to all of the Republican candidates that traveled to California to beg for money etc. from the Koch Brothers. Puppets?” In all, the Koch brothers spent close to $900 million in the 2016 campaign, including significant outlays to Trump’s opponents in the Republican presidential race, and to Republican Congressional candidates, and they refused to back Trump during the campaign. At a donor conference on Jan. 30, 2017, just after the new President’s inauguration, Charles Koch echoed the rallying cry of Clinton Democrats when he said, “We have a
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tremendous danger because we can go the authoritarian route” under Trump. The two plan to spend another $300 million in 2018. The Koch brothers are at the center of Republican Congressional opposition to the economic agenda that Trump campaigned for, which explains in part why his pledge to restore Glass-Steagall -- which he insisted be included in the Republican Party Platform -- and fund a revitalization of American infrastructure, have not happened. The brothers fund neo-liberal opponents of the American economic system. They are rabid supporters of the free trade agenda, typified by NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which Trump has opposed; they favor outsourcing of industry, rather than a policy to revive American manufacturing; they oppose government funding for infrastructure, favoring instead Public-Private Partnerships; they oppose Trump on immigration, as they favor bringing in immigrants to perform cheap labor; they are committed to privatizing Social Security, to bring retirement funds into private investment swindles typified by those favored by their well-funded think tanks, the Heritage Foundation and the Cato Institute (they have contributed more than $100 million to such neo-liberal think tanks); and they support all efforts to impose austerity on government spending, in order to reduce “big government.” During the 2016 campaign, Trump blasted large Republican donors, such as the Kochs, calling them “highly sophisticated killers” whose donations give them control over legislators. He denounced the Super Pacs, such as the Koch Brothers’ Americans for Prosperity, as “corrupt.” His comments at his victory party after the election generated deep alarm from the donor class, when he promised to “rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools and hospitals.” It should not be forgotten that Trump became president by smashing the Bush neocon/neo-liberal Republicans on the way to his party’s nomination, and their Obama-Clinton collaborators in the general election. While most of the party base remains loyal to Trump, the Democrats are hoping to bring a handful of Koch-funded Republicans to support their efforts to impeach Trump. That is why Trump’s recent reaffirmation of his fight against the neocon/neo-lib establishment in both parties, is essential for him to fulfill his campaign pledges to restore the American System. Trump and Conte Launch U.S.-Italy Dialogue to Stabilize the Mediterranean At their meeting in Washington on July 30, President Trump and Italian Prime Minister Antonio Conte launched a “preferential relationship”. The historical reference is to the alliance between Italy and the US sought by Enrico Mattei after the 1956 Suez Crisis, when Italy was the only European country to vote in support of the U.S. resolution condemning the invading powers France and Britain against Egypt. Eventually, Mattei’s efforts were successful under the Kennedy Administration and Aldo Moro. (See EIR June 5, 2009: “Mattei and Kennedy: The Strategic Alliance Killed by the  British.”). The current US and Italian governments, both wrongly dubbed “populist”, are expressions of the voters’ reactions against the same neo-colonial forces, including the EU, which in recent times have brought us “regime change” wars in the North African/Middle Eastern theatre and, through their bankrupt economic policies, have produced deindustrialization, unemployment and poverty. At the joint press conference of the two leaders, Trump stat
ed that the United States recognizes Italy’s leadership role in the Mediterranean while Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced that a joint U.S.-Italy “steering committee” has been established to stabilize Libya, confirming what he had previously said on background to a group of Italian journalists. The new “axis” between Italy and the Trump Administration has freaked out the EU establishment. Exemplary is a commentary in Die Welt: “Conte is now Trump’s man in Europe. His best friend on a continent which he just called an enemy. A new axis seems to be born: Washington-Rome. It will stand against the old Berlin-Paris axis. ‘We are now partners,’ Trump said. It is a partnership against the dominance of Germany and France, of Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron.” Both Trump and Conte had stressed the significance of the bilateral relations at their joint press conference. Trump said, “Today, Prime Minister Conte and I are pleased to announce a new strategic dialogue between Italy and the United States that will enhance cooperation on a range of issues. This includes joint security efforts in the Mediterranean, where we recognize Italy’s leadership role in the stabilization of Libya and North Africa.” Conte said that both parties had agreed to set up a “steering committee ... in the Mediterranean between Italy and the United States. I would say that we’re almost twin countries in which Italy is becoming a reference point in Europe and a privileged interlocutor for the United States, for the main threats and challenges that we have before us, terrorism, and for all the crises that we see in the Mediterranean and, in particular, in regards to Libya. “Secondly, the American administration also recognizes that Italy has a leadership role as a promoter country that will lead to the stabilization of Libya. And of course, this with the great respect for the Libyan population.” Later, Conte announced that “we are going to organize, in agreement with President Trump, I’m going to organize a conference on Libya. We would like to deal and discuss all of the issues relating to the Libyan people involving all of the stakeholders, actors, protagonists in the whole of the Mediterranean. We are going to discuss economic aspects but also social aspects; the protection of civil rights; the problem of constitutional process, of issuing and passing laws (inaudible) to enable Libya in particular to get to democratic elections in a condition of the utmost stability.” Prime Minister Conte was greeted by a LaRouchePAC welcoming committee at his arrival to the White House. The organizers displayed a large banner saying “Benvenuto Prime minister Conte – Go Glass-Steagall” – referring to the financial reform contained in the Italian government program. Conte himself waved at the sight of the banner, which was covered by some Italian news agencies. Circle of Peace and development grows on the Horn of Africa Coming to power earlier this year, Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed initiated a policy of peace and development at home and with his country’s neighbors. With his official visit to Eritrea July 8, he transformed a former enemy into a partner in peace and economic cooperation. A similar planned trip to Somalia promises to do the same. Abiy’s victories brought a swift response from the oligarchical power committed to sabotage peace and development of Africa in the form of the assassination of Simegew Bekele, chief engineer of the Renaissance Dam project, which, when completed, will be the largest hydroelectric project in Africa. (cf. SAS 31/18). 
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After accepting the offer of peace from PM Abiy, Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki invited the President of Somalia, Mohammed Abdullahi “Farmajo” Mohammed, to Asmara on July 28. The two leaders ended a long period of bitterly strained relations, signing a joint communique in which they pledged to “forge intimate political, economic, social, cultural as well as defense and security cooperation”, and foster peace and stability in the region. Meanwhile, economic integration between Ethiopia and Eritrea is moving ahead. Spokesmen for Eritrea’s two major ports, Port Massawa in the north of the country and Port Assab in the south, announced they have completed preliminary refurbishment  and are ready to handle Ethiopia’s import and export cargoes. Before the two countries went to war in 1998, they were the  two main ports for Ethiopia, but over the past 20 years, they have become quasi inactive, as they handled cargo for a country of only 5 million people and had been under sanctions. The port of Massawa is ideal for handling cargoes to and from northern Ethiopia, where new industrial zones are being developed as well as mineral and agricultural resources. It was visited by an Ethiopian delegation led by former PM Hailemariam Desalegn and including business people who took the first flight to Asmara in two decades. As for Port Assab, assistant Professor of Development Economics Dr. Teshome Adugna told the Ethiopian Herald : “High transportation cost is one the major setbacks of Ethiopia’s export trade and re-accessing Assab is instrumental in reducing the unit cost of products in the view to penetrate global markets.” Pointing to the unused refinery, he said Assab would avail the opportunity to Ethiopia to export processed oil to world market at better prices . The next step will be improve road connections and construct a railway between the ports and major cities in northern Ethiopia. All of this is occurring in the benevolent shadow of China’s Belt and Road Initiative and win-win philosophy of Chinese President Xi Jinping. This spring, China opened a new embassy building in Asmara and assigned a new Ambassador to Mogadishu. Mnangagwa Wins Zimbabwe Presidential Elections, in spite of EU Meddling The incumbent President and candidate for Zanu-PF party Emmerson Dambudzo Mnangagwa, won the presidential election in Zimbabwe with 50.8% of the vote, roundly defeating his main rival, Nelson Chamisa of the opposition MDC-Alliance, who received 44.3%. There was an 85% turnout. In the race for the National Assembly, Zanu-PF won 145 of the 210 seats, with the MDC-Alliance taking only 63. The remaining two seats went to the National Patriotic Front and to an independent. The election was probably the most internationally observed election ever held in Africa, with observer teams from the European Union, the Southern African Development Community (Sadc), the Commonwealth Observers group,  the African Union observers headed by a former prime minister of Ethiopia, and the joint US-based International Republican Institute and the National Democratic Institute. While almost all observers stated that the election was orderly, the leader of the EU mission, European Parliament Elmar Brok of Germany, charged that there was intimidation and the lack of a “level playing field”, although he had to acknowledge the “improved political climate, inclusive participation rights and
a peaceful vote.” The choice of Elmar Brok to lead the EU team was a clear provocation. In 2014, this same European MP had played a leading role in the infamous Maidan coup in Ukraine, taking active part in the anti-government demonstrations. Brok’s comments on the vote procedures were clearly calculated to unleash violence.  In fact, after the polls were closed and in expectation of the results to come in two days, supporters of  the MDC-Alliance launched a rampage through the Harare central business district, forcing riot police into the streets and by the end of the day three people had been killed. Fortunately, with universal calls for calm, a Maidan-type orchestrated coup has been so far averted. Chamisa has refused to accept the result and has claimed “blatant fraud”.  However, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, including in his capacity as Chairman of the Southern African Development Community, congratulated Mnangagwa and urged Zimbabweans to accept the poll results. From China, spokesman of the Foreign Ministry Geng Shuang noted that the election was “generally peaceful and orderly” and that the level of participation of Zimbabwe’s people was high.  It will be remembered that Zimbabwe is a key African participant in China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which has been enthusiastically supported by Mnangagwa. More bad news for the destabilizers was provided by the Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network, which is funded by the US government. It released a statement saying that through a sample survey of a select number of districts based on actual vote counts (not exit polls), it forecast a 50.7% vote for Mnangagwe and 45.3% for Chamisa, well within the 2% margin of error. They said the results released by Zimbabwe Election Commission are consistent with the Sample-Based Observation (SBO) projections. A Win-Win Proposal  for US-Mexican Relations! In a landslide victory on July 1, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a progressive, was elected  President of Mexico. What does that portend for U.S.-Mexico relations, which have been stuck, since the election of President Trump, in rhetorical skirmishes over immigration, with Trump insisting on building a wall, and the fate of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)? After the election, Trump sent a note welcoming AMLO’s victory, and said he is prepared for cooperation in joint development projects, a sign that the “Singapore model”, of using dialogue to transform adversary relationships into positive collaboration, has a universal application. AMLO responded that he is open to a broad discussion, including on immigration and NAFTA. He said such discussion should include addressing the grinding poverty of Mexico’s southern neighbors, such as Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras, which is responsible for the recent flow of migrants through Mexico to the U.S. Secretary of State Pompeo traveled to Mexico City, confirming in talks with officials of the incoming  government that Trump is prepared to participate in joint projects. The big question is how to proceed -- can one “reform” bad ideas, such as NAFTA, which has damaged the economies of both the U.S. and Mexico, to make it less harmful? Obviously not! Instead, a proposal was put forward by Kesha Rogers, an independent candidate for Congress in the 9th District in Texas, which Schiller Institute President Helga Zepp LaRouche described as a “brilliant idea.” Rogers, who has been endorsed by LaRouchePAC, and has twice won the Democratic nomination for Congress, called for replacing NAFTA with NABRI -- the North American Belt-and-Road Initiative. Taking
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as her lead Lopez Obrador’s invitation to the U.S. to invest in infrastructure projects in Mexico, Rogers said that the strategy used by China to alleviate poverty, by investing in constructing “rail development corridors and modernizing ports,” has worked not only in China, but is transforming Africa. Why not apply this to the needs of Mexico and Central American nations, where the Chinese are already active, as well as in the U.S., where American cities have seen the growth of poverty, as former industrial centers have been destroyed by the effects of free trade agreements, financial speculation, and austerity? Rogers said that, were Trump to adopt a Hamiltonian credit policy to fund infrastructure development in the U.S. and Mexico, in collaboration with China, the U.S. could eliminate poverty by 2030, at the same time as addressing the root cause of the immigration from those neighboring nations destroyed by decades of International Monetary Fund policies. In her statement, Rogers concluded, “I am running for Congress with the full commitment and determination to achieving the goal of bringing the United States to the beautiful future of win-win cooperation and the total eradication of poverty, once and for all.” Saudi Coalition must be forced  to accept political solution in Yemen In a statement received by EIR on July 31, Mohammed Ali AlHouthi, President of the Revolutionary Committee of Yemen in Sana’a announced a unilateral ceasefire on the Red Sea fronts, and requested the same from Saudi-led coalition. (That Committeee is the acting government in control of the capital and large territories of Yemen.) The statement declared a peace initiative, calling on Yemeni officials to stop all military operations in the sea battle fronts in the Red Sea provinces, especially in the port city of Hodeida. “If the coalition will respond with the same action”, the statement continued, “this ceasefire would be extended to all territories of Yemen”. The unilateral ceasefire went into effect on midnight of the same day and was supposed to extend for 15 days. Furthermore, the statement declared that the National Salvation government (a coalition of Ansarullah or Houthis and the General People’s Congress party) were ready for comprehensive and unconditional political negotiations and national reconciliation dialogue. The following day, the Saudi coalition, while making no public response to this offer, launched an airstrike on a fishing port and a hospital in Hodeida, killing 50 civilians and injuring more than 170. The coalition later denied carrying out any such strike. As a result, the ceasefire was broken and the fighting around Hodeida resumed. Just two days later, the UN Special Envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths told the UN Security Council that he was inviting the warring parties to Geneva on Sept. 6 for talks aimed at seeking a political solution to the Yemen war. The representatives of the United States, Russia, China and all other members of the UNSC supported the proposal for the Geneva talks. However, the representative of Kuwait and the so-called Yemeni “legitimate government” in exile in Saudi Arabia, both speaking on behalf of the Saudi coalition, put specific conditionalities on the  talks, pushing in particular a Gulf Cooperation Council initiative that aims at dividing Yemen into 6 confederate states, giving decentralized tribal structures more power in the country than the central government. It is clear for most Yemenis that any peace and national reconciliation dialogue has to start with stopping the Saudi war,
preserving the unity and sovereignty of Yemen as a unified republic, and making no conditionalities. The dialogue should be conducted by Yemeni forces alone, with no intervention form outside forces, be they regional or global. It is useful to recall, in the case of Syria, that the Geneva rounds of talks between the Damascus government and the western-backed opposition did not lead to any real solutions, because the UN ignored the fact that the war in Syria was caused by armed terrorist groups backed by western powers and the clients in the region. It was only after the Russian military intervention and the pressure exerted on regional and international powers, when the Geneva talks were moved to Astana, that a more realistic solution took form and an end to the war in Syria finally began to be in sight . All regional powers intervening in the Syrian conflict were neutralized. But Russian-U.S. coordination of this process was a key element in this success. Today, if the United States, Russia and China agree that the war in Yemen must stop, and pressure is applied on the Saudi coalition to end its military operations and cease meddling in Yemeni affairs, a political solution would become realistically possible. ASEAN and China Conduct Joint Military Drill, negotiate South China Sea pact The naval forces of the ten member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) conducted a two-day joint naval exercise with China’s PLA Navy on the sidelines of the meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum in Singapore this past week. While this was a desktop exercise, there are plans for further joint exercises on land and on sea. While Western anti-China institutions claim that ASEAN member countries are furious about Chinese “aggression” in the South China Sea, the ASEAN-China Foreign Ministers meeting in Singapore successfully negotiated a draft document to serve as the basis for final discussions on a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea. The remaining differences are spelled out in the draft, but the intent is to work together in both economic and military matters to maintain peace in the region. The draft includes proposals for joint military exercises, joint exploration for oil and gas, and protocols to deal with disasters and potentially dangerous encounters between military forces. Singapore’s Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan, who chaired the ASEAN meeting, called the draft a “major achievement,” pointing out that it was too early to say when negotiations would be complete. He said the COC would ensure peace and confidence between ASEAN and China “while we take time to resolve the territorial disputes.” Note to Subscribers The next issue of the Strategic Alert will be dated August 23, 2018.
E.I.R. STRATEGIC ALERT        www.eir.de  Published by: E.I.R.GmbH,  Bahnstr. 9a, 65205 Wiesbaden Tel.: 0611/73650, Fax: 0611/9740935, Email:  info@eir.com Verantwortl. f. d. Inhalt: Dean Andromidas, Claudio Celani Subscription: EUR 3000/ ISSN  0936-7527 © E.I.R. GmbH  Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch die des Nachdrucks von Auszügen, derphotomechanischen Wiedergabe und der Übersetzung, Printed in Germany