E.I.R.STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER Volume 34, No. 8, February 20, 2020

E.I.R.STRATEGIC ALERT WEEKLY NEWSLETTER
Volume 34, No. 8, February 20, 2020

From “Westlessness” to the New Paradigm, Where the Future Lies for the West This year’s Munich Security Conference (MSC, Feb. 14-16) displayed a significant clash between the traditional view of geopolitics, expressed in particular by the United States representatives, and a more positive view of international relations based on cooperation. The theme of the conference -- “Westlessness” or the erosion of the trans-Atlantic system commonly called the West -- was clearly set out in the official report for the conference, presented by MSC chairman Wolfgang Ischinger, at a press conference on Feb. 10. “There is a double phenomenon right now, that the first is the West is less western, and the second is the world as a whole is less Western. What does it mean to German, European and global relations, especially to our security politics?”,  Ischinger asked. What is more, he said, “we appear to have lost a common understanding of what it even means to be part of the West. Although perhaps the most important strategic challenge for the transatlantic partners, it appears uncertain whether the West can come up with a joint strategy for a new era of great power competition.” However, rather than seriously discussing such a new strategy, prominent western representatives in Munich chose to continue blaming Russia and China for the major problems in the world. U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo raved against those two powers, but especially China, as did the Defense Secretary Mike Esper, and he even made a rather ridiculous attempt to proclaim that the West was winning over China (cf. below). Neither of the two mentioned President Trump’s oft stated intention to improve relations with Moscow and Beijing. Various European leaders attending the MSC indulged in the grand illusion that a “Europeanization” of foreign and defense policies would turn Europe into a global player on equal footing with the United States, Russia and China. French President Emmanuel Macron once again made a strong plea for a more “independent” European policy, which he hopes France, as the only remaining nuclear power, will be able to dominate, although he is a strong proponent of dialogue with Russia. German President Steinmeier used the occasion to criticize the “destructive dynamic in global politics” coming from Moscow, Beijing, but also Washington “under the current government”.
A different tone was struck by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. He noted that the concept of “Westlessness” shows the need to to transcend the East-West and the North-South divide, and to “see the international community as one’s global family”. He clearly stated that China would not adopt a Western world, but pursue its own model of peaceful development, in cooperation with all others. Wang also made a point of thanking the international community for all the support received in the fight against the coronavirus. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, while accusing NATO of fostering a “barbarization of international relations”, reiterated President Vladimir Putin’s recent constructive call for a world summit of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council. Relations between the U.S., Russia and China must undoubtedly be at the center of any deliberations on an improved global situation, and a proposal for special summit between these three powers by Schiller Institute President Helga ZeppLaRouche is being circulated internationally (cf. SAS 2-6/20). Put SDI Mutual Defense Back on the Agenda One good reason for the West to improve relations to Russia is the widening “missile defense gap” which is creating such alarm in NATO headquarters. Meeting in Brussels on the eve of  the MSC, defense ministers of the western alliance assessed that Russia has gained a clear lead in  missile capabilities. The SSC-8 cruise missiles with their range of 1,800 kilometers are a challenge to NATO defenses: although they fly not faster than a civilian airliner, they are difficult to track because of their variable flight route. In addition, the air-to-ground missile Kinzhal, launched in-flight from nuclear bomber aircraft at an altitude of 18-20 km, can reach 10 times the sonic speed, while the Avangard missile, launched on an ICBM into space, cannot be tracked at all, since it travels at 20 times the sonic speed and has the ability to fly on a waved vector. Rather than entering another exhaustive arms race, the United States would do well to resume talks with Russia on a mutual solution to defense, along the lines of the Strategic Defense Initiative developed by Lyndon LaRouche in the early 1980s, providing for joint development of systems to protect not only against missiles attacks, but also against potentially lethal threats to our planet caused by large asteroids, several
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of which are scheduled to come close enough for collision with the Earth from the 2030s on. Who’s Afraid of the Big, Bad Huawei? The speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, exposed herself as a neocon during her appearance at the Munich Security Conference, where she delivered rabid, often incoherent, attacks against China. Demanding that the world stop using Huawei technology -- and by implication all
 Chinese technology -- she denounced President Xi Jinping for all kinds of evil, including undermining American “democratic values, human rights, economic independence and national security.” Mrs. Pelosi, however, was called out by one of China’s top female legislators, Fu Ying, the former Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, and now chairwoman of the China’s National People’s Congress Foreign Affairs Committee. She politely informed Pelosi that when China first opened up, 40 years ago, “all the technologies came from Western countries, from the developed world”. Nonetheless, China was not threatened by the use of such technologies, but rather maintained its own political system, and became successful. “How come, if Huawei’s technology with the 5G is introduced into Western countries, then it will threaten the political system? Do you really think that the democratic system is so fragile that it could be threatened by this single, high tech company of Huawei?” Her question drew considerable applause. But Nancy Pelosi, utterly disconcerted, could only sputter for words above the ovation: “Let me say to those of you who are applauding back there, that Huawei was created by reverse technology of American initiatives, that was one of the main ways they got started.” (So why doesn’t the U.S. just develop its own version, one might ask.) In any case, from there, Pelosi attempted to assert that adopting Huawei technology would somehow mean the end of freedom of information, respect for human rights, etc. Zepp-LaRouche’s Proposal for Trilateral Summit Endorsed by Prominent Italian China Expert Michele Geraci, as former undersecretary of the Italian Ministry of Economic Development, was the architect of the 2019 Memorandum of Understanding between Italy and China on the Belt and Road Initiative, the first such agreement signed by a G7 member country. In answering questions by Schiller Institute members at a  Columbia University conference in New York City on Feb. 4, he endorsed Helga Zepp-LaRouche’s proposal for a trilateral summit between Presidents Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping. “Helga always has good ideas”, said Geraci. “I welcome this opportunity and I appreciate the attempt to try have multilateral discussions, because we need to ease bilateral tensions. (…) We need to have more partners in order to have more views. I think we should have Europe, Russia (Russia is of course part of Europe), the United States and China engage in a trilateral, quadrilateral dialogue because when we start to look at bilateral trade, deals on individual issues we never agree because one wins, the other one loses. So, we need to put everything into a pot, almost a potpourri of many issues being discussed at the same time and then it will be easier because half are to my gain and the other half to your gain – and then it will be easier for both parties to see the issue.”
Geraci also answered the question as to whether Italy could help to improve US-China relations, explaining that this was not easy given Italy’s position as an ally of the U.S.While he said he would have liked to help Mr. Lighthizer come to some kind of agreement, he was afraid that the United States might misunderstand, and consider the Italian government as being too close to China’s position, if Italy were to play a neutral role as mediator, neutrality unacceptable for a NATO member. Another Schiller Institute representative raised Donald Trump’s mentioning of the Santa Maria del Fiore cupola in  his Davos speech as an example of putting no limits to one’s aspirations and asked whether Geraci sees a role for Italy in extending BRI cooperation to the cultural field and in bringing to it the spirit of the Florentine Renaissance. Geraci agreed that this is an important role for Italy to play. Even in this time of crisis due to the coronavirus, he added, those values are being communicated as an inspiration for friendship between countries. This year is the anniversary of bilateral relations between China and Italy, and he is pushing for “using the Renaissance as the basis of those commercial relationships, because when people buy ‘Made in Italy’ they don’t buy just machinery, a machine-tool, but they buy a whole concept, in a way related to the imaginary of that Renaissance period. Modern engineering, design takes inspiration from that period. You wake up in the morning and you are surrounded by art and culture.” Will the EU Respond to Locust Plague That Threatens East Africa? In late January, the Food and Agriculture Organization launched an appeal for “rapid response and anticipatory action in the Greater Horn of Africa”, noting that the worst locust outbreak in decades was hitting Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. Since then, the swarms have spread to Uganda and South Sudan. The United Nations humanitarian chief Mark Lowcock warned on Feb. 13 in New York that “There is the risk of a catastrophe.” Thirteen million people already face severe food insecurity, 10 million of them in places affected by locusts. Dominique Burgeon, the Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) emergency and resilience director, warned that another 20 million people in the region are in danger of becoming food insecure. Without enough aerial spraying to stop the swarms, the locust outbreak could turn into a plague, which would take “years to control,” he said. Since Biblical times, locust plagues have been notorious. In just one day, a “small” swarm of only one square km can consume the equivalent amount of food for 35,000 people. One swarm recently measured in Kenya covered an area of some 60 km by 40 km. The 20th Century saw six major desert locust plagues, the last of which was in 1987-89. The last major upsurge was in 2003-05. The FAO has asked for an initial amount of $76 million in immediate aid. But so far less than $20 million has been made available, including $10 million released from the UN emergency relief fund, $3.8 million from FAO, only $800,000 from the U.S, while the European Union has only contributed $1 million. According to the FAO, the primary method of eradicating locusts is  by using organphosphate chemicals by vehiclemounted and aerial sprayers. But such resources are lacking
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in these poor countries. Kenya and Ethiopia, for example, each have only five planes for spraying, which is largely insufficient given the urgency. Europe and other leading countries should therefore launch military type of mobilization to provide the equipment needed, including airplanes and pesticides. In the 1980s, Lyndon LaRouche spearheaded a campaign to eradicate locusts and other pests with the use of electromagnetic pulse devices. In an article in EIR published in 1988, the science of using electromagnetic pulses which would be specifically “tuned” to affect only locusts, was discussed. These types of devices have proven feasible in research laboratories, but the efforts went unfunded. Tests were performed on Lubber grasshoppers,  chosen due to their similarity to the Desert Locust. The wavelengths were approximately the size of the grasshoppers, which were treated to short  bursts of electromagnetic radiation.  It only took one-tenth of a second to kill the insects, and this sort of technology could be effective at a distance of up to three miles  (EIR,  Vol. 15, No.  16,  April 15,  1988). The use of high-power microwave systems offers another fruitful avenue for research. U.S.: Democratic Party Imploding  on the Way to 2020 Election Democratic Party leaders are panicking, as they realize that their slim chance of defeating President Trump in the upcoming presidential election is evaporating. A major part of their strategy was to avoid facing him in November 2020, by removing him through a conviction on two articles of impeachment in the Senate. That not only failed, but polls now indicate that efforts to tarnish him with further investigations, and possibly drafting new articles of impeachment against him, will not rally voters behind them. Just as in 2016, the leadership of the party, the Democratic National Committee (DNC), is intent on stopping candidate Bernie Sanders. But despite their efforts, Sanders won the popular vote in Iowa by a slim margin, then won the New Hampshire primary a week later, and is leading in polls in upcoming primaries in California and Texas (cf. SAS 7/20). The candidate who benefited from DNC meddling with the vote in Iowa was South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who finished second in New Hampshire, who is being pushed as the “moderate” alternative to the “radical” Sanders. Credible reports, however, present him as a stalking horse for former New York City Mayor and Green fascist Michael Bloomberg. Room for Bloomberg’s emergence as a “leading candidate” has been opened by the collapse of Joe Biden, who finished fourth in Iowa and fifth in New Hampshire, destroying his argument that he is the “most electable” opponent to Trump. Biden has dismissed his miserable showings, claiming that he is the favorite of African-American Democrats, which will be apparent when the primary is held on Feb. 29 in South Carolina, where 60% of party voters are African-American. Bloomberg’s strategy has been to stay out of the early contests, to allow for a winnowing of the field, and then sweep to victory on Super Tuesday, March 3, when 34% of the convention delegates will be elected. He has spent already more than $200 million of his own money in Super Tuesday states, which include California and Texas, mostly on media ads, and is expected to spend another $300 million before the Democratic convention. Given the poor quality of his Democratic opponents, he has moved into third place in some polls.
However, his campaign is running into problems, beyond charges that the billionaire is just buying the vote. A video of a speech he gave in 2015 has surfaced, in which he defended his anti-crime program in NYC, which explicitly targeted Afro-Americans and other young male minorities. He had attempted to block release of that video, and has apologized for his comments, but the word is out. He has also been accused of “sexist” and misogynistic actions as CEO of the company named after him that made him billions. In the age of “Me, too”, and identity politics, such charges may blunt the effect of half-a-billion dollars spent on ads attacking Trump. Further, there are rumors that he will pick Hillary Clinton to be his Vice Presidential candidate! Party leaders are therefore stuck with a problem: how to deal with surging support for a radical Green, self-proclaimed “Democratic Socialist” in Sanders, while promoting the fading Biden or the anti-growth, “racist-sexist” billionaire Bloomberg. What they had believed some months ago would be a cakewalk into the White House has become a mine field of their own making. Repercussions of Russiagate:  Upheaval over the Case of Roger Stone Following the acquittal of Donald Trump by the Senate on Feb. 5, more revelations are to be expected on the insidious investigations designed to remove the President from power. Such is the case of Roger Stone, a former Trump campaign adviser and long-time friend, who is set to be sentenced on Feb. 20. The Justice Department (DOJ) prosecutors recommended that the political strategist be sentenced to no less than seven to nine years in prison. However, on Feb. 11, U.S. Attorney General Barr announced that his department would reduce the recommendation, as it “could be considered excessive and unwarranted.” That announcement triggered a major outcry among the putschists. The four prosecutors who had made the recommendation resigned from the case. Senate Democratic Party leader Schumer demanded an investigation by the Justice Department’s Inspector General, while other Democrats stated that Barr should be impeached. So what are the crimes Stone committed? He was convicted last Nov. 15 on seven counts, including five counts of lying to Congress, one for “obstructing Congress” and one for witness tampering. The major accusation is that he had contacted Wikileaks in an attempt to find out more about the content of the emails of Hillary Clinton’s campaign that had been leaked to that website. Stone was targeted by Robert Mueller in his investigation of Trump’s collusion with “the Russians”. But as constitutional expert Alan Dershowitz pointed out, the frameup of Stone had nothing to do with the original mandate given to the special counsel Mueller.  At the time of the conviction, Trump called the prosecution of Stone by Robert Mueller a “double standard like never seen before.” He correctly pointed out that Obama officials involved in the coup against him, including former CIA Director John Brennan, former DNI James Clapper, former FBI Director Comey and his deputy Andrew McCabe had all lied to Congress, yet none faced prosecution.  The case against McCabe was even dropped last week week. Further complicating the Stone case is emerging information that the foreman of the jury had been posting nasty statements against Trump on social media, and had commented on
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the Stone case before he was convicted.  Stone’s attorneys are considering a motion that the judge should rule that this is a mistrial, as the juror was clearly not impartial. On another case against a Trump associate, former Trump National Security Adviser Michael Flynn,  the Attorney General’s office announced that they were looking into the case. General Flynn had also been convicted in the framework of the Mueller investigation, for denying during an interview with the FBI a discussion that he had effectively had with the Russian ambassador to Washington. The freakout from the anti-Trumpers around William Barr shows that those who ran the coup  attempt against Trump are legitimately fearful that their own illegal actions may soon be seriously investigated. Argentina’s Government Will Not Pay “Asphyxiating” IMF Debt A technical mission from the International Monetary Fund arrived in Argentina on Feb. 12, to begin negotiations with President Alberto Fernández’s government on the $44 billion debt owed the Fund. On the same day, Argentine Finance Minister Martín Guzmán described before the national Congress the stark reality of the country’s debt and economic crisis, stating unequivocally that payment of principal and interest to the IMF before 2024 (at the earliest)  is impossible. When President Fernández took office in December, 2019, with Cristina Fernández de Kirchner as his Vice President, the national economy had been ravaged by the neoliberal policy imposed in 2015-19 by the government of President Mauricio Macri, at the IMF’s behest. Living standards had been gutted, Guzmán charged, industry and exports paralyzed, and a horrific social crisis ensued, with a poverty rate close to 40% “and growing,” and five million Argentines suffering from hunger. To be able to begin growing again, Argentina must “get out from under the debt burden that is asphyxiating us.” The debt, he underscored, is “unsustainable” and requires a “deep restructuring.” Indeed, in Sept. 2018, the IMF had granted a $57 billion standby loan to Argentina -- the largest in its history! But the $44 billion of that sum actually disbursed, Guzmán pointed out, “wasn’t used to increase the country’s productive capacity,” to finance infrastructure or useful projects, but to pay back debt and encourage capital flight. Neither President Fernández nor Guzmán have provided details on the government’s macroeconomic plan xto reactivate the economy, but they have said they will not impose austerity, nor reduce the fiscal deficit for 2020. In addition to the IMF and the previous government, Guazmán said the current crisis ws also due to the private bondholders who bet on the failed IMF model and charged usurious interest rates to cover themselves. The debt restructuring talks, he noted, will be difficult, but “we are not going to allow foreign investment funds to set the guidelines for our macroeconomic policy.” Meanwhile, some of Wall Street’s major investment and vulture funds, such as Fidelity, BlackRock, and Templeton, are already creating bondholder committees and hiring lawyers in anticipation of a fight with the Fernández government. While President Fernández has said he would not ask the IMF for a “haircut”, because the Fund’s statutes prohibit it, Vice President Cristina Fernández called on Feb. 8 for a “substantial haircut”. She accused the IMF of violating its own statutes
when it made the unprecedented $57 bn. loan, which was then used to abet capital flight and speculative currency operations. After pointedly mentioning that Argentine debt makes up 60% of the IMF’s loan portfolio, she called for a “Never Again” mobilization to stop the cycles of indebtedness that have historically plagued Argentina. Climate Change: the EU Brooks No Opposition The European Union Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell provoked waves on Feb. 5 for questioning whether youth are really prepared to lower their living standards to fight so-called climate change.“It is fine to demonstrate against climate change as long as nobody asks you to pay for it… I would like to know if the young people demonstrating in Berlin calling for measures against climate change are aware of what such measures will cost them, and if they are willing to lower their living standards to offer compensation to Polish miners, because if we fight against climate change for real, the miners will lose their jobs and will have to be subsidized,” Borrell commented. This fight is in no way “costfree”, he added. Such heretical comments immediately drew Inquisition-like responses, from EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyden on down. As a result, Borrell quickly bowed to the “political correctness” lobby, and backtracked.
* The BBC Prepares New Documentary Series with Greta Thunberg. The British broadcaster is doing its part to help re-boost the waning campaign among youth. According to the BBC Studios ’ executive Rob Liddel, a new series in in several episodes will document Thunberg’s “international crusade” to combat climate change. She will be followed across the world as she meets scientists,  political leaders and business moguls, to find out what is needed to tackle global warming, It seems that many Britons are not happy with the BBC ’s use of public funds on such nonsense. Take note too, that Greta Thunberg has announced that her name, and that of the FridaysForFuture will now be trademarked, so they can’t be “exploited” by unscrupulous people.
* Global Warming Is Not a Priority for Americans. A Pew Research 2019 survey reported that “Climate Change” ranked in 17th place out of 18 “important issues” in a recent poll of Americans. The issue ranked second-to-last going back to 2014. A disgruntled article in ClimateDepot.com had to admit: “Moral of the story: There has never been any evidence that climate change is a top concern for most Americans. This is not a crowd-pleaser or a vote-getter.” But what was the issue of greatest concern to Americans, according to the Pew poll? As you may have guessed... the economy.
E.I.R. STRATEGIC ALERT        www.eir.de  Published by: E.I.R.GmbH,  Bahnstr. 4, 65205 Wiesbaden Tel.: 0611/73650, Fax: 0611/9740935, Email:  info@eir.com Verantwortl. f. d. Inhalt: Dean Andromidas, Claudio Celani Subscription: EUR 3000/ ISSN  0936-7527 © E.I.R. GmbH  Alle Rechte vorbehalten, auch die des Nachdrucks von Auszügen, derphotomechanischen Wiedergabe und der Übersetzung, Printed in German