STRATEGIC ALERT Newsletter
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| | The New Paradigm Required to Overcome the Strategic Crises | We warned in our last issue that the period leading up to the Jan. 20 inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the United States would be among the most dangerous in modern history. Events have more than confirmed that warning. The outgoing Biden Administration has been tasked with worsening every possible global hot spot to try and make sure the incoming Trump Administration will not break out of the control of the infamous “Establishment” or “deep state” -- a task supported by the major NATO powers.
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In spite of the deployment of a new and very powerful hypersonic weapon by Russia, U.S. and European missiles have again been used by the Ukrainian forces to hit Russian territory. The Russians retaliated in attacks last week that also killed some 40 American military specialists and at least nine French instructors and technical specialists.
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At the same time, the attempt to organize a “color revolution” against the Prime Minister and government of Georgia, which is opposed to joining the EU, is in full swing, with support from Brussels. And a new front in the endless wars in South-West Asia has again been opened in Syria, with “guidance” from Washington, while the dying in Gaza goes on and on (cf. below).
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In addition, all-out financial warfare has been launched against the leading BRICS nations, in particular Russia, China and India, with all Russian banks now to be hit with sanctions by the Biden Administration, and export prohibitions to China. According to Bloomberg, there is now reportedly a “broad sell-off” of the bonds of Global South countries as well.
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Statements by President-elect Trump, and his appointment of Wall Street’s man Scott Bessent as his proposed Treasury Secretary (cf. SAS 48/24), do not portend any easing of the financial warfare against the rest of the world. But, as we know, there is often a great gap between the threats and intentions voiced by Donald Trump and what he does.
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There is, however, an alternative to the dead-end into which the transatlantic world is now rushing. It will be discussed in some detail at the Schiller Institute conference this weekend, Dec.7-8. Included at the end of this newsletter is a preliminary program with speakers for the two days. We urge our readers to follow as much of the conference as they can on Internet or on the Zoom platform.
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Schiller Institute Conference, December 7-8, 2024,
from 15:00 CET to 22:00 CET
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| For the preliminary program, see below. |
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| | Appointees to Trump Cabinet Trigger Yet More Panic | When Matt Gaetz withdrew his name from consideration to be Donald Trump's Attorney General, the relief was palpable throughout official Washington. Gaetz is the Republican Congressman from Florida, who had debunked those who used the false stories of a Russiagate to undermine then-President Trump, and who intended to use the position of Attorney General to pay back those from the "Deep State" who were responsible for it.
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But the relief was short-lived, once Trump nominated Kash Patel to be FBI Director. Patel had held a number of different positions in the first Trump administration, including as deputy to the acting Director of National Intelligence. In each post, he demonstrated a Gaetz-like killer focus targeting those who weaponized the Justice Department (DOJ) and the FBI to take down Trump.
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Working with House Intelligence Committee chair Rep. Devin Nunes, he played a key role in drafting the "Nunes memo", which charged that the FBI "may have relied on politically motivated or questionable sources" to obtain a Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) warrant to spy on Trump adviser Carter Page as part of the "Russiagate" allegations. He was also involved in exposing the Christopher Steele dossier used by the FBI for the FISA wiretaps as a fraud, demonstrating a pattern of the Bureau's politicization of law enforcement deployed against those who challenged the "security state" set up after the 9/11 terror attacks. Patel wrote a book about corruption in the DOJ and intelligence community, titled Government Gangsters, which includes a list of 60 officials to investigate for possible prosecution for their role in using Russiagate to undermine Trump’s presidency.
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If Kash Patel is confirmed, along with Trump's choice to replace Gaetz as Attorney General, Pam Bondi, there should be significant changes in the “culture” and practices of the intelligence community.
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In addition to the damage they could deliver to the anti-Trump networks, intelligence establishment operatives remain extremely worried about Tulsi Gabbard taking over as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). The panic was displayed in a nasty podcast by Nikki Haley, the U.S. Ambassador to the UN during Trump’s first term, who criticized Gabbard’s opposition to the endless wars of the U.S. and NATO neocons, and criticized her for exposing the role of the CIA in aiding, arming and training Islamic Jihadists in Syria.
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| With the over-running of Aleppo by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham Jihadists this week, and rumors of a U.S.-Israel-Turkey role in backing them, those in U.S. intelligence who have aided and guided the development of Islamic Jihadists have good reason to fear Gabbard's oversight, with Trump's full support. |
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| | The Most Unpopular European Commission in History and a Parliament Commited to Confrontation | The Anglo-American circles who are planning to unleash chaos in the next 50 days can count on the assistance of EU institutions as signaled unmistakably by the European Commission and Parliament. On Dec. 1, in their first official act after taking office, the new High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy Kaja Kallas and the new European Council President Antonio Costa went to Kyiv, where the former mooted the possibility that European soldiers could be sent to Ukraine. The new European Commission had just been approved by the European Parliament on Nov. 27, albeit with 31 votes less than that received last July by Ursula von der Leyen for the renewal of her mandate (370 to 401). That gives the Commission a 51% majority, the worst ever result in the history of the European Union.
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Indifferent to her unpopularity, Ursula von der Leyen promised EU membership to Kyiv, and announced that she will stick to the Draghi report, focusing on three “pillars”: “closing the innovation gap with the US and China,” “a joint plan for decarbonisation and competitiveness” and “increasing security and reducing dependencies”. She granted a few concessions, at least verbally, to European industry hit by decarbonisation, by promising to “accompany people and business along the way” and to save the car industry.
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While acknowledging that the biggest challenge to European companies “is high energy prices”, she turned reality on its head, by boasting of her response to “Russia’s energy blackmail” and promising to “bring down costs for households and companies”.
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Not only was it von der Leyen, Draghi & friends, and not Russia, who implemented the “energy blackmail” that pushed prices up, but that policy has proved to be a total failure, as pipeline gas from Russia has been replaced by LNG imports from not only the U.S., but also from Russia itself. And to really lower energy prices, the sanctions against Moscow would have to be lifted.
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| The next day, the silly European Parliament approved a resolution calling for escalating the war against Putin by providing long-range weapons to Kyiv. The vote was 390 to 135, with 52 abstentions. The resolution |
| | | “calls for the EU and its Member States to further strengthen their military support for Ukraine, including through the provision of aircraft, long-range missiles, including Taurus missiles, modern air defense systems, including Patriots and SAMP/T, and ammunition, as well as MANPADS, artillery and training programs for Ukrainian forces, and calls for accelerated delivery of the equipment pledged to meet Ukraine’s urgent needs; reiterates its position that all EU Member States and NATO allies should collectively and individually commit to supporting Ukraine militarily, with no less than 0.25 % of their GDP annually; welcomes the signing of the joint security commitments between the EU and Ukraine and calls for the Commission and Member States to act swiftly to effectively implement the commitments made; calls on the Commission and the Council to prioritize making the European IRIS2 space communication capabilities fully operational and to grant Ukraine (and Taiwan) access as soon as possible.” |
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The resolution chastises Germany for refusing to provide Taurus missiles to Kyiv and “regrets the German Chancellor’s recent phone call with Vladimir Putin”, while praising Biden’s decision to allow deep strikes into Russian territory.
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| | Germany at a Crossroads, Two Weeks Away from a Fateful Vote | When the vote of confidence against Chancellor Scholz comes to the floor of the Bundestag on Dec. 16, the Greens just might desert the government coalition and support war-hawk Friedrich Merz, the leader of the CDU, to replace Scholz. Hints in this direction were confirmed by the new co-chair of the Green Party, Franziska Brantner, who stated outright on Dec. 1 that on key foreign policy issues such as Ukraine, Merz is closer to the Greens’ position than Scholz and many of his Social Democrats in the SPD. With two weeks to go to the confidence vote, Germany is polarized on the question of whether to send ever more weapons to Ukraine and risk a direct war between NATO and Russia, or opt for diplomacy aimed at reaching a ceasefire. As the Green Party example shows, the West’s war party is mobilized to create facts on the ground and a political mine field for Donald Trump, in the hopes of blocking his announced intention to solve the crisis in Ukraine.
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The focus of the public debate is the "Taurus" cruise missile, which is in a category of attack system above that of the U.S. and UK/French missiles that Ukraine already has. Those opposed to delivery rightly warn that delivering of the Taurus, as Russia itself has repeatedly warned, would mean crossing a red line and making NATO, and Germany most of all, a direct target of Russian military attacks.
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On Nov. 29, Alice Weidel, co-leader of the opposition party Alternative for Germany (AfD), stressed in an interview with the Swiss weekly Weltwoche that Moscow has already sent clear warnings by deploying a new type of medium-range missile and toughening its nuclear doctrine.
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In an interview with the Nov. 30 issue of the Preussische Allgemeine weekly, German Gen. (ret.) Harald Kujat, a leading opponent of the war party, warned that the “only rational option for Europeans” is to support the United States President if he seeks peace. Allowing the use of the Taurus to attack Russia, in his view, would lead to “a break in transatlantic cohesion”.
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Moreover, on Nov. 25, the independent physicians association "Hippocratic Oath" launched a campaign for a broad citizen mobilization stop the drive to World War 3 and prevent a change in government that would bring Friedrich Merz to power. Warning that Olaf Scholz might only be backed by the SPD in the confidence vote (after the Greens desert him), the association urges the SPD to do the allegedly unthinkable, and accept the votes for Scholz of the otherwise “ostracized” opposition parties Alternative for Germany and the Wagenknecht Party (BSW).
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| As for Olaf Scholz himself, he has so far stuck to his “yes, but” approach: diplomacy yes, when the time has come, but for now, continued weapons delivery to Ukraine (except for the Taurus). That was visible also during his surprise visit to Kyiv to meet President Zelenskyy on Dec. 2. |
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| | From Road Traffic to the Moon: Options for the Automobile Industry | With automobile producers, particularly in Germany, sinking deeper into the worst crisis of the sector in nearly 70 years, new ideas are urgently needed to find a way out, preventing plant shutdowns with the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs. Instead of that, the management of the leading car makers and of their suppliers resort to the usual measures: short time work, followed by wage cuts, layoffs, closure of factories, and a request for emergency support from the government.
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Thus, at Volkswagen, Germany’s leading car producer, the management has threatened to shut down three production sites and lay off some 30,000 employees over the next two or three years, unless the deficits caused by very low sales, especially of e-cars, can be compensated by drastic cost-reduction programs, including of wages. The metalworkers labor union has gone so far as to “voluntarily” offer to take a 10% wage cut if the plant closures are dropped. In an act of desperation, the union has made this a top issue in ongoing bargaining talks and might even call a strike of all of the company’s 120,000 workers in Germany to get it. Even if a compromise is found soon, the problem remains that sales, in particular of e-cars, are dismal,
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Things look very different in China. On the basis of a coherent strategy free of of radical ecologist illusions, the country has built up its power grid of re-charging stations, developed its own production and increased battery production, so that more than 25% of the new cars sold thus far this year were e-cars. In Europe, it is only 12%. China is also the world leader in battery production, with 77% of the market share, while the number one in Europe, Poland, is at only 6.5%. In terms of installing industrial robots, which is crucial for a high output, China has overtaken Germany this year with 470 to 429 on the IFR index that measures one robot per every 10,000 employees.
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However, a comparison with China must take into account the fact that many users there are driving in urban conglomerates with up to 20 million people, in which e-cars are a convenient means of transportation. And to travel long-distances, they can count on the world’s longest and most efficient high-speed railway network. Furthermore, China has not banned endothermic engines, leaving automakers free to decide on how to allocate their resources.
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| The European Commission’s response is to make Chinese cars more expensive by slapping a 35% punitive tariff on them, but that will not solve the problem. Other steps need to be taken, beginning with scrapping the “green” ideology, and then, re-tooling certain sites for the production of other types of vehicles, such as the millions of tractors needed in the Global South, as well as pick-ups, trucks, buses. Thinking ahead, cars for urban maglev-based public transportation systems will be needed, as well as components for space travel. |
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| | The Role of the CIA in the Endless War in Syria | Since the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) launched its surprise offensive against the Syrian government on Nov. 27, occupying Aleppo and advancing toward Damascus, intense diplomatic efforts have been deployed, together with an apparently effective military counter-offensive by the Syrian army of President Assad, with crucial air support from Russia. Although the weakening of the Assad government is welcomed by many in Washington and London, the Biden Administration has denied any implication in the attack by this successor organization of al-Qaeda.
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Colonel (ret) Richard H. Black, one of the foremost American experts on Syria, is not convinced by such denials, as he explained in his report to the International Peace Coalition on Nov. 29. In his view, the attack, which broke the ceasefire agreed to in 2020, brokered partially by Ankara, was done “with probable assistance from Türkiye, and with guidance, I suspect, from the Central Intelligence Agency”. The presence of Kurds in the area is a decisive factor for the intervention of the Turkish-backed Syrian National Army.
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Col. Black, a former head of the Army’s Criminal Law Division at the Pentagon, suggested to the IPC that the current attack by al-Qaeda and its allies aimed to “take advantage of the fact that Syria has been under attack by Israel”, including increased aerial attacks. Moreover, the CIA was involved in organizing Syrian terrorists “going back to 2011”. So, it is unlikely, he said, “that the rebels in Idlib province could burst loose without the explicit guidance of the Central Intelligence Agency. We found out from Wikileaks many years ago that the CIA set up a series of major warehouse centers along the Turkish border with Syria for the purpose of funneling weapons to the terrorists who were attacking the legitimate Syrian government.... We didn’t necessarily orchestrate all of the tactics and strategy and ideology used by the terrorists, but we knew what they were doing.”
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| As for Türkiye, it “is always on the look-out for opportunities to seize territory from Syria, and they certainly are complicit in the current attacks.” In addition, Col. Black noted, it “provides an opportunity for Israel, which long has had its eyes on Syrian property. So, we will see what develops, but there is no doubt that within the Deep State, there are elements of the CIA, of the Pentagon, that are looking for an expansion of the war and the creation of a new front in Syria to again undermine any efforts that the Trump administration might have to bring calm and peace to the world.” |
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| | A Precarious Ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, As Netanyahu Advances Ethnic Cleansing | A sigh of relief was heard around the world when Presidents Biden and Macron announced, on Nov. 26, that a ceasefire agreement had been signed between Israel and Lebanon. The temporary 60-day agreement is, however, precarious, as Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu indicated in initial remarks, in which he claimed that “with the full understanding with the US, we are maintaining full freedom of action” against Hezbollah in Lebanon. “To every violation , we will respond with force,” he warned.
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Both Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron pushed hard for some kind of ceasefire, for their own political benefit. The French President went so far as to openly violate France’s solemn obligations as a member of the International Criminal Court by granting Netanyahu legal immunity in France (cf. SAS 48/24). As for the discredited U.S. President, he is desperately attempting to establish some kind of positive legacy for his term in office. Despite his happy talk about ending the fighting between Israel and the Hezbollah, Biden announced just one day later that he was pushing ahead with the delivery of nearly $700 million of arms to Netanyahu, in addition to the $2 billion in military equipment sold in August.
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The Israeli government reportedly plans to use the respite to replenish the armed forces, to seize yet more of the Palestinian territories, and to escalate its attacks on Syria (cf. below), and ultimately Iran. Netanyahu added that the agreement would allow Israel to “focus on the Iranian threat”.
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Moshe Ya’alon, a former Defense Minister and former Chief of Staff of the Defense Forces, has accused Israel’s leadership, driven by far-right elements who seek to resettle Gaza, of carrying out ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip, while leading the nation to “destruction”. “The path we are being dragged down is one of occupation, annexation and ethnic cleansing in the Gaza Strip,” the prominent government critic told Democrat TV, according to the Times of Israel.
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| He blasted the policy pushed by the Israeli far-right of population transfer and “voluntary migration” of Palestinians from Gaza, and the reestablishment of Jewish settlements in their place. He said that “70% -- sometimes more and sometimes a little less -- of the public in the State of Israel advocates a path that is Jewish, democratic, liberal etc., and also with separation [of religion and state.” |
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| | Western Corporations Grab Productive Land in Ukraine | | It is well known that Ukraine’s “Black Earth” is among the most productive soil in the world, and has been bought up at bargain prices by the profit-hungry cartels and funds, mainly U.S.-based. That scandal was raised on Nov. 13 by Belgium Member of the European Parliament Barbara Bonte (Patriots for Europe, PfE). She wrote a “Question for written answer” to the EU Commission, under the headline “Ukrainian Farmland Increasingly U.S.-Owned”: |
| | “According to several disquieting reports, mainly U.S. but also Saudi agro-industrial and investment businesses are purchasing Ukrainian farmland on a massive scale. Cargill, ADM, Blackrock, Oaktree Capital Management and Bunge Limited, for instance, have reportedly gained control over much of Ukraine’s farmland.” Ms. Bonte goes on to ask two questions:
“1. What is the Commission’s assessment of the impact of this sell-off of European farmland to multinationals serving only U.S. interests on EU strategic food-supply dependence? How does the Commission intend to address that impact?
“2. This strongly suggests that the United States is seeking to recoup its military support for Ukraine, and ensure a geopolitical presence there in a post-war scenario, through control over Ukrainian farmland and the profits it generates. How does the Commission intend to prevent the United States from cherry-picking in Ukraine and Europe from being left to deal with just the handicaps?” |
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| An informative study on the same subject was published on Feb. 21, 2023 by the American Oakland Institute, an environmental think-tank, titled: War and Theft: The Takeover of Ukrainian Agricultural Land. “Around 4.3 million hectares are under large-scale agriculture, with the bulk, 3 million hectares, in the hands of just a dozen large agribusiness firms. In addition, according to the government, about 5 million hectares -- the size of two Crimea -- have been ‘stolen’ by private interests from the state of Ukraine. The total amount of land controlled by oligarchs, corrupt individuals, and large agribusinesses is thus over 9 million hectares, exceeding 28% of the country’s arable land.” |
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| | Helga Zepp-LaRouche Addresses Belt and Road Conference in Guangzhou | The 8th annual Maritime Silk Road Conference was held in Guangdong Province in Southern China on Nov. 22-24, under the aegis of the Guangdong Institute for International Strategies (GIIS).The theme of the conference was: “New Quality Productive Forces and High-Quality Development for the Belt and Road Initiative”.
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Guangdong province is a flourishing example of China's economic development policy, of using fundamental scientific progress as a driver for the continual increase in per capita productivity. It is home to more then 75,000 high tech companies, with $65 billion per year invested in R&D, and some 1.3 million people employed in research, which created in 2023 665,000 patents.
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Many Chinese and foreign dignitaries as well as think tank experts addressed the conference, after the first keynote speech was given by Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder and chairwoman of the Schiller-Institute. She focused her remarks on the absurdity that China’s success in lifting 870 million people out of poverty, and in helping 150 other developing coutries to do the same through the Belt and Road Initiative is seen as a threat by certain powers in the West.
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The Greater Bay Area, which comprises Hong Kong, Macao and nine cities in the Pearl River Delta, including Guangzhou, is clearly the motor of the world economy, the most diversified cluster of innovation-driven production in the world, and the flagship for the Chinese economic miracle, Zepp-LaRouche said. She proposed that the West and China collaborate on development of the Global South as the means to overcome geopolitical tensions and to solve the various migrant crises.
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| On the third day of the conference, Ms. LaRouche was presented a certificate formally recognizing her as a Special Advisor to the Guangdong Institute of International Strategies by Prof. Sui Guangjun, President of that institution and former President of Guangdong University. She then proceeded to walk 50-60 graduate students at the Guangdong University of Foreign Studies through a history of her husband, Lyndon LaRouche’s fundamental economic discoveries, and historical interventions against the policies of Empire. |
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| | Preliminary Program of the Schiller Institute Conference | Schiller Institute International Online Conference
December 7-8, 2024 In the Spirit of Schiller and Beethoven:
All Men Become Brethren!Saturday, Dec. 7 (all times are Central European Time)
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Panel 1 (15.00-18.00): “The Strategic Crisis: New and Final World War,
or a New Paradigm of the One Humanity?”
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Moderator: Dennis Speed (U.S.), Schiller Institute: Welcome and Introduction
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- Keynote: Helga Zepp-LaRouche (Germany), Founder of the Schiller Institute
- H.E. Naledi Pandor (South Africa), former Minister of International Relations
and Cooperation, South Africa; “How Should the South Respond?” - Dmitri Trenin (Russia), Professor, Academic Supervisor of the Institute of
World Military Economy and Strategy at the Higher School of Economics
University (Moscow) - H.E. Donald Ramotar (Guyana), former President of Guyana
- H.E. Ján Čarnogurský (Slovakia), former Prime Minister of Slovakia
- Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (U.S.), former U.S. Assistant Secretary of
Defense for International Security Affairs, 1993-1994, visiting scholar at the
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University,
Rhode Island - Former U.S. State Department Official (U.S.)
Question & Answer Session
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Panel 2 (19.00-22.00): “The Great Projects To Overcome the Migrant Crisis; The New, Quality Productive Forces; A New Just World Economic Order”
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Moderator: Stephan Ossenkopp (Germany), Schiller Institute: Welcome and Introduction
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- Keynote: Dennis Small (U.S.), head of the Ibero-America desk, Schiller Institute
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