Wednesday, 16 July 2014

but the mega-vulnerability is there?



{Funny how you couldn`t see the vulnerabilities until they bit you in the ass; Stockton Real Estate, Wauchova, Enron, Lehman Bros. MCI, AIG, Bankster corruption in Packaged Mortgage deals. Merrill Lynch; Ah! Now that probably surprised everyone.

Now we have others waiting to bite the naive matoids;  Chicago Ill. Pensions, and Calif. Calsters, Calpers, soon in mega-crisis due to the mega-drought.  Phoenix Az. real estate already in trouble. Retailing in general = the internet finally doomed Main St.  We never know when the Debts or Taxes just overwhelm any attempts to stabilize the structure but the mega-vulnerability is there. Well, Janet Yellen is just as good at bull-shitting you as Bernanke was. 

Yea, I remember that TOP in the Nasdaq in 2,000. No technical pattern warning. Ha! Nobody rang a bell either! It just suddenly dropped like a heart attack victim! Chart below; It`s all on borrowed money, still.  L.}



No, really?
The market reversed when Yellen said that certain valuations were stretched.  Her published comments prior to the speech said nothing about social media, but she included it in her "backside report."
Here's the problem: The "real value" of such "businesses" is in fact zero.
"Stretched"?  Uh, that's being kind.  These firms produce nothing.  They in fact only transfer funds from one person to another; in this case they try to entice you to buy something and skim a piece of that via "advertising."  But the so-called "growth" in these firms is a chimera -- before you claim there is "value" here you have to determine from where it has been taken.
Good luck with that given that the usual claim is that the "pie is getting bigger."
No it's not.
What is expanding (again) is financial leverage moved by extremely low manipulated policy rates.  As I have repeatedly pointed out when the interest payment on $1 million moves so you can borrow $6m with the same interest payment there is no incentive to pay down the $1m nor will you -- instead you'll borrow the other $5 million and spend it.
That's what's been done - the money hasn't been used to expand property, plant and equipment, it has gone to executive compensation and stock buybacks.  This is a destructive trend in the extreme because it moves valuation but not value.
How much further does it go before someone raises their hand and calls "bullcrap!"?
I have no idea -- but someone eventually will, and the "people" will wake up in a cold sweat.
Just as happened in 2000.


NASDAQ chart

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