STRATEGIC ALERT NEWSLETTER
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| | | At this point, there is an acute danger that the “ethnic cleansing”, depopulation operation underway in Gaza will lead to a region-wide war in Southwest Asia, which would rapidly involve all major powers, in one way or another. The United States, under the pretext of supporting Israel’s unconditional right to self-defense, has deployed a huge military force in the Eastern Mediterranean, made up of 30,000 American military personnel, and two aircraft carrier strike groups, both of which are equipped with nuclear weapons. According to mainstream media sources, Washington is scrambling to deploy more military systems in (still) allied countries in the region and areas it de facto controls in Syria and Iraq.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin, as we reported last week, announced on Oct. 18, that the Russian air forces would begin permanent patrols over the Black Sea, to monitor activity in the Mediterranean, and elsewhere. Those aircraft are armed with the new hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, that have a range of over 1,000 km and are nuclear-capable.
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The implications of such a military build-up go well beyond the conflict in Gaza. In fact, U.S. fighter jets hit two sites in eastern Syria in the night of Oct. 26, said to be associated with Iran. There is much speculation about strikes on the Hezbollah in Lebanon, and even more dangerously, on Iran itself, which is accused of financing and arming Hamas as well as the Hezbollah. The drumbeat for confrontation with Tehran is growing louder, including from the financial interests behind the Wall Street Journal and The Economist, as well as the from neocons in the U.S., the UK, and Western Europe. They claim that Samuel Huntington’s “clash of civilizations” is inevitable. But if such an escalation occurs, all bets are off. Certainly, the existence of Israel would be jeopardized, which many Israelis in the opposition recognize and have warned against.
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And yet, just as the situation in Ukraine is becoming increasingly desperate for NATO, the West is refusing to push for a negotiated settlement there, or in the Middle East. Behind this suicidal course is the collapse of the international financial system, based in the City of London and Wall Street, on which the power of the “unipolar world” is built.
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| On the other hand, we have the emergence of the “non-West”, otherwise called the “Global Majority”, that demands the right to development and the end of colonialism. They have rallied around the expanded BRICS group (three of the six new members being in South-West Asia), and around China’s Belt and Road Initiative. This offers a way out of the crises, emphatically including for Israel, which could make an invaluable contribution to the economic and technological development of the entire region in the framework of a stable two-state solution. That, in turn, calls for the approach laid out by Lyndon LaRouche in his 1975 Oasis Plan and its several updates, including the World Land-Bridge. |
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| | | On Oct. 27, the United Nations General Assembly approved a non-binding resolution calling for a humanitarian truce in the Gaza Strip. The resolution, presented by Jordan and other Arab nations, was approved by a large majority, with 120 countries voting for, 45 abstaining and 15 voting against. The vote is highly relevant politically, as it shows the international isolation of Israel's right-wing government supported by the United States.
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The Israeli ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, called this a day of “infamy”, denying the existence of a humanitarian crisis in Gaza. To dramatize the issue, he showed up at the UN on Oct. 30 wearing a yellow star on his chest.
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The European Union was glaringly split on the issue. Whereas some nations abstained, such as Italy, Germany and Poland, eight EU members voted for the resolution: France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Ireland, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovenia, (plus Switzerland), while four others joined the U.S. and Israel in opposing it: Austria, Croatia, Hungary and the Czech Republic.
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Noteworthy is that the countries that abstained and voted against have both used the arguments put forward by Washington: that the resolution “does not condemn Hamas”, that it “does not demand the release of the hostages” and does not affirm “Israel's right to defend from aggression”. However, the text voted up, as found on the UN website, exposes such arguments as dishonest.
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The preamble of the resolution states: “Condemning all acts of violence aimed at Palestinian and Israeli civilians, including all acts of terrorism and indiscriminate attacks, as well as all acts of provocation, incitement and destruction”. Then, point 7 “Calls for the immediate and unconditional release of all civilians who are being illegally held captive, demanding their safety, well-being and humane treatment in compliance with international law”.
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The third argument is only dealt with implicitly, in that the very first sentence states that the General Assembly is “Guided by the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations”. And Article 51 of that Charter affirms the right of every nation to defend from agressions by another entity. Despite its shortcomings, the resolution is focused on establishing the protection of human life through a truce.
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| France's UN representative Nicolas de Rivière, who voted in favour of the resolution, made exactly this point: “Nothing can justify the suffering of civilians. All victims deserve our compassion, all lives are equal and there is no hierarchy between them.” The French representative regretted that the resolution did not contain an explicit condemnation of Hamas, but nevertheless we “must guarantee safe, swift, unhindered and sustainable humanitarian access to the Gaza Strip”. |
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| | | In his opening remarks to the Oct. 24 UN Security Council session, UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres decried the horrific Oct. 7 attack by Hamas on Israel and the loss of life, hostage-taking, and violence that ensued. But, he added, “it is important to also recognize that the attacks by Hamas did not happen in a vacuum. The Palestinian people have been subjected to 56 years of suffocating occupation.... But the grievances of the Palestinian people cannot justify the appalling attacks by Hamas. And those appalling attacks cannot justify the collective punishment of the Palestinian people.” He also expressed his concern about “clear violations of international humanitarian law in Gaza”.
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Although carefully balanced, his remarks set off a storm of protest among Israeli officials. The reality on the ground was presented in much starker terms by Philippe Lazzarini, commissioner-general of the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine (UNRWA). In an Oct. 26 opinion column in the Guardian, he charged that Gaza is being transformed from an “open-air prison” into a “graveyard”. If the world does not find the courage to impose a ceasefire to stop this, no one will be able to say “we did not know,” and history will judge us accordingly, he warned the world.
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“On 7 October, Hamas committed unspeakable massacres of Israeli civilians that may amount to war crimes…. But let there be no shadow of a doubt—this does not justify the ongoing crimes against the civilian population of Gaza, including its 1 million children…. Atrocities should not be followed by more atrocities. The response to war crimes is not more war crimes.”
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U.S. President Biden does not have the same qualms, it seems. He was asked at a press conference on Oct. 25 about the 7,000 Palestinians killed, of whom nearly 3,000 children. His response echoed the incredible cynicism touted by then Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in 1996, when confronted with the fact that 500,000 Iraqi children had died as a result of the sanctions on Iraq ordered by Washington. “The price, we think, the price is worth it”, she answered coldly.
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Joe Biden, after saying he could not trust any statistics given by the Palestinians, added: “I’m sure innocents have been killed, and it’s the price of waging a war.” He did say that he hoped the Israelis will only kill combatants, for what that’s worth...
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| In an interview with CNN’s Kaitlin Collins, renowned surgeon Dr. Abu-Sittah, who is working in Gaza, expressed the utter disgust of people in the region to the comment of the U.S. President: “I think President Biden is telling Israelis they haven’t killed enough Palestinians yet and that there is more room for more slaughter.” |
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| | | The continuous rise of US government yield (the ten-year note is already over 5%) has shocked observers and investors throughout the world. “The U.S. economy is one step closer to a devastating crisis”, is the conclusion of an article in China’s Global Times of Oct. 24. The GT Voice article, which is as usual simply signed Global Times and thus carries the weight of an editorial, fails to delve into the root causes of the crisis, notably the out-of-control $2 quadrillion speculative bubble of the trans-Atlantic financial system. But it does suggest that the BRICS and other Asian financial initiatives can serve as an alternative to the Western blowout.
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Pointing to the soaring U.S. Treasury bond rates, the article states: “There’s every reason to raise a red flag over the abnormal rate performance…. Global markets are increasingly concerned about the creditworthiness of U.S. bonds and distrustful of the U.S. economy. The unprecedented mistrust threatens to trigger a storm in the dollar-dominated financial system.”
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It goes on: “Whatever the reason, investors’ demand for record high yield compensation on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds could be a sign that the U.S. economy is one step closer to a devastating crisis. And it is the time to prepare for the big storm by making use of the existing Asian and BRICS financial coordination mechanisms.”
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The conundrum facing the dollar is also addressed: “Given the fact that the U.S. debt has already become the biggest threat to the dollar’s status, keeping interest rates high is also a must for the U.S. to safeguard the dollar’s status. That makes U.S. debt look even more unsustainable. Now higher interest rates may lure more funds into U.S. bonds, but this will further drive up borrowing costs and increase the risk of an economic recession. Moreover, high rates will inevitably lead to an outflow of funds from other markets, causing more shocks to the global financial markets.” South Korea is having problems with high rates, they report, but “then one can only imagine what shocks await other Asian economies and emerging markets.”
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| The article concludes: “Under such circumstances, it seems reasonable to be concerned about whether there will be a repeat of a financial crisis, calling for financial coordination on an urgent basis among Asian and emerging economies. In addition, the BRICS countries can deploy emergency foreign exchange liquidity support through the BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement to address financial market instability.” |
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| | | The Trumpf Group, a major German machine-tool, laser and electronics producer with markets throughout the world, has 85 million euros worth of laser products sitting in containers, that can’t be exported to China because the Economy Ministry has still not issued the export permits required. At the company’s annual press conference on Oct. 26, CEO Nicola Leibinger-Kammüller blasted the delays, and warned of the existential danger to many companies, if the government does not change its policies, including on the energy and the soaring prices of materials.
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Green leader Robert Habeck, the current Economy Minister, claims that a lack of personnel at his ministry is responsible for the delay, but as Leibinger-Kammüller pointed out, “I don’t know of any ministry in Berlin that is understaffed”. And especially not one whose “primary task” is supposed to be to support German companies.
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The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reported on Oct. 27 that other corporate CEOs have voiced similar criticism of Habeck’s Economy Ministry, and suspect that the government’s anti-China strategy is the real reason for not granting export permits. As Leibinger-Kammüller pointed out, the lasers that have been held up for months, are specifically designed for civilian use, and have no military value, thus are not subject to the obligatory dual-use scrutiny.
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According to the website produktion.de, the CEO of the family-owned Mittelstand company also pointed out that “The ‘deindustrialization’ that has been a topic of discussion for weeks now is not just a threat evoked by energy-intensive industry, but a real danger in view of the imbalance in energy prices and other general factors, for example, compared to international competition.”
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Leibinger-Kammüller’s remarks have been corroborated by a just-published survey conducted by the Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) showing the increasingly pessimistic outlook among entrepreneurs. Over half of the 24,000 companies questioned view Germany's economic policy as a business risk. This high percentage is unprecedented in the history of industry, the DIHK notes. Only 13% of the firms polled expect an uptick in the next 12 months, while 35% expect the German economy to continue to decline throughout next year.
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"We see no sign of a self-sustaining upswing so far," DIHK Managing Director Martin Wansleben said in a statement. "On the contrary, companies have revised their investment plans, which are important for this, and their hiring intentions downward – both into negative territory."
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| No quick fix on the energy price front will improve the situation in Germany though: at an energy congress in Frankfurt on Oct. 26, Jürgen Schöttle, a former leading official at the Siemens Power division, declared that reversing the exit from nuclear power would require more than a crash program, because no new reactor has been commissioned in 40 years, and an entire new generation of nuclear engineers would have to be trained. |
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| | | Former German General Harald Kujat, together with three other German experts, released an in-depth proposal in late August for reaching a negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine, which is perhaps the most detailed plan put forward to date (cf. SAS 39/23). Gen. Kujat was Chief of Staff of the Bundeswehr in 2000-2002, and ended his military career as Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, 2002-2005.
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He was asked by the Preußische Allgemeine to comment on Seymour Hersh’s view that the Ukraine war is over, and that Russia has won. In the interview, published Oct. 29, he notes that it is not quite that simple. Politically, a war is won by whoever obtains his political objectives, and in the case of Ukraine, neither side will do that. “Russia wanted to prevent NATO expansion and now has to accept the joining of Finland and Sweden. With its support for Ukraine, the United States wanted to weaken its geopolitical rival Russia politically, economically and militarily. This didn’t happen either. Russia is by no means isolated; the BRICS organization even welcomed six new members on August 24th. Other countries want to join, including NATO members Türkiye and Greece.
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“The economic sanctions are proving to be a disadvantage, especially for the West. And militarily, Russia is stronger than before the war. Ukraine, whose goal is to restore full sovereignty over its entire territory within the 1991 borders, will also fail to achieve this goal.”
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From the strictly military standpoint, General Kujat continued, the advantage is Russia’s. “Here the situation is clearly tilted in favor of Russia. Basically we see an asymmetrical operation. Ukraine is trying to recapture square meter after square meter of Russian-occupied territory at extremely high cost. Russia, on the other hand, has shifted to a strategic defensive strategy with the aim of inflicting ever greater losses on the Ukrainian armed forces and making Ukraine defenseless. The Ukrainian offensive, which began almost five months ago with great expectations, has not brought the desired results.”
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| General Kujat goes on to examine various scenarios for the months ahead in this interview. In addition, the Swiss journal Zeitgeschehen im Focus (Oct. 26) had published a piece by General Kujat and Professor Hajo Funke of the Free University of Berlin, reviewing the Ukraine-Russia peace talks of Spring 2022, and how they were sabotaged by the West. The article is headlined: “How a Promising Peace Settlement in the Ukraine War Was Prevented”. |
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| | | The international climate conference, scheduled for Nov. 30-Dec. 12 in Dubai, is not shaping up to be a success – if one is to judge by the African Energy Week, that ended Oct. 20. The event, held in Cape Town, South Africa, was organized by the African Energy Chamber, which represents the African hydrocarbon industry, under the slogan “make energy poverty history by 2030”. For that, the expansion of the oil, gas, coal and nuclear energy sectors is indispensable on a continent where over half of the population does not have access to electricity.
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The theme of the conference was “The African Energy Renaissance: Prioritizing Energy Poverty, People, the Planet, Industrialization and Free Markets”. Attendees included almost every African government and energy-related business and state energy company.
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Speaking for the highly disgruntled climate lobby, the Daily Maverick of South Africa published a long article denouncing the conference under the title “Africa Energy Week: Where Climate Science Makes Way for the Gods of Gas and Coal”. The authors lament that “its speakers ferociously pushed back against global calls for an immediate transition from fossil fuels….”
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Indeed, in opening the Week, South Africa’s Minister of Mineral Resources and Energy, Gwede Mantashe, called for the continued use of coal and gas, and charged NGOs with weaponizing climate change to stop economic development.
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Namibian President Hage Geingob told the conference: “For the African energy renaissance to be meaningful, Africa should be permitted to explore and exploit its natural endowments for the good of the continent. It should not be for export to other countries, but for the benefit of African people.”
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One panel, entitled “King Coal Is Back: Africa’s Future Clean Coal Industry”, was keynoted by Dr. Zwanani Titus Mathe, CEO of the South African National Energy Development Institute. He declared: “The energy mix of the future will always have coal. We must therefore continue to invest in coal, continue researching around coal … it is very clear that baseload power will come from coal-fired power plants and nuclear power plants.”
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Enobot Agboraw, Executive Secretary of the African Commission on Nuclear Energy, told participants that, “Nuclear power with its long lifespan and reliability, stands out as a key pillar in Africa’s energy transition efforts.”
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| Sayed Salah Eldin Motyaser Aly of the Egyptian Nuclear Power Plant Authority briefed the participants on the progress of Egypt’s first nuclear power plant, which marks the “start of our future industrialization. It has created the opportunity for highly skilled jobs and the development of local industries and Egypt has invested in many initiatives such as the dedicated El Dabaa vocational school, as well as a training program implemented with our strategic partner to ensure we have the skills needed to take this project forward.” |
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| | | It should be noted that in addition to the millions protesting worldwide to demand protection of and justice for civilians in the Gaza Strip, there have been significant and strong calls for peace from Israeli and other Jewish representatives throughout the world. In the United States, the organization “Jewish Voice for Peace” staged a very effective takeover of Grand Central Railroad Station in New York City on Oct. 27 to demand a ceasefire. The organization has also been lobbying Congress in Washington with the same message.
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In Germany, an Open Letter signed by 100 German Jewish artists, writers, and scholars denounces the pattern of banning rallies critical of Israel. The bans affect not only Palestinians, but also increasingly Jews who oppose the officially-imposed narratives.
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| In Denmark, a group of 26 “young Jews” addressed an open letter to the Prime Minister expressing their “outrage” that the government does not “publicly condemn more of Israel’s actions as war crimes, especially the collective punishment of Palestinians” and the unnecessary killing of civilians. Their letter was printed in the leading Danish newspaper Politiken. |
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| | | The international Schiller Institute has launched a mobilization worldwide to demand an immediate ceasefire in South-West Asia, the end of forced migration from Gaza and the implementation of UN Resolution 242, as laid out in the petition of the International Peace Coalition (cf. SAS 43/23 for the full text, which can be signed here).
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That petition has also been distributed by Schiller Institute activists outside the United Nations headquarters, including on the day the ceasefire resolution was passed (cf. above). The IPC is now planning demonstrations in various capitals in November, beginning with Washington.
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In the United States, the LaRouche Organization has been organizing on university campuses, provoking very heated, but productive debates. The movement is also intervening at events of national and local politicians, challenging them to act now to stop the escalation to war on all fronts.
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The most widely reported intervention was at a speaking event of Hillary Clinton at Columbia University on Oct. 23. One young activist of the LaRouche movement interrupted her well-rehearsed speech to ask her to distance herself from President Biden’s then-recent speech on the defense budget. “This is clearly a warmongering speech. President Joe Biden is calling for $100 billion of funding for Israel, Taiwan, and Ukraine, and we’re just supposed to bundle these together and rush to World War III.... ” After trying unsuccessfully to shout him down, Hillary Clinton aggressively answered: “I will not do that.”
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Another activist then stood up and engaged in a several-minute debate with her on her defense of billions to fund wars, while she opposes China’s billions for development in their Belt and Road Initiative.
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A video of the intervention has gone viral on Internet and in social media, while major news outlets have covered it, including the Daily Mail, Fox News, Newsweek, Sky News, Türkiye’s Anadolu Agency, New York Post, Yahoo News, Washington Examiner, HuffPost, and the Daily Caller, as well as dozens of other smaller channels and websites.
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In addition, a polemical leaflet has just been issued by the campaign of Diane Sare, a LaRouche activist running as independent candidate for U.S. Senate from New York State, calling on all Americans to help her “change the direction of our nation now”, and return the United States “to the principles of our founding”.
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To do that, she writes, “We must recognize two points. First, the trans-Atlantic financial system is finished. The former British-liberal-imperialist-monetarist system is thoroughly bankrupt, and no amount of QE or QT is going to fix it. Second, a group of nations, led by China and Russia, as grouped in various organizations such as the BRICS-Plus, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Eurasian Economic Union have much more in common with the outlook of John Quincy Adams than the United States at any time in the last 50 years.”
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| The leaflet ends with the call for the convening of an international conference “to establish a new economic and security architecture which respects the sovereignty and right to development of each nation equally, while also taking into account the legitimate security concerns of each nation. If the United States returns to reason, this can be easily done. If the United States fails, I fear we are all doomed.” |
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