STRATEGIC ALERT NEWSLETTER
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| | | On Nov. 6, Palestinian health authorities announced that the death toll in Gaza had exceeded 10,000, prompting UN Secretary General Guterres to exclaim that Gaza is becoming “a graveyard for children”. Just one day earlier, Israeli forces had cut off all communications in the Gaza Strip for the third time, fully surrounded Gaza City and cut the Gaza Strip in two. Should they move into Gaza City, the level of carnage will rise dramatically.
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Already now, there are some 1.4 million internally “displaced” people, homeless, hungry and terrified, out of a total population of 2.3 million in the Gaza Strip. Refugee camps, hospitals and schools have been bombed.
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Although U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been visiting several countries in the region, he has repeatedly rejected the idea of a ceasefire, merely calling for more aid deliveries to be allowed in, while imperiously warning the Hezbollah and Iran not to get involved. If they do, the conflict will spiral out of control. Benjamin Netanyahu, for his part, has refused to consider any ceasefire, in spite of the danger for the lives of the hostages, and in spite of increasing isolation internationally.
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Mass protests in the West have been growing, and also in Israel, as the horror of genocide in Gaza looms. In London, tens of thousands crowded into Trafalgar Square, on Nov. 4, following demonstrations of up to 100,000 on the previous two Saturdays. Some 20,000 marched in Paris, after the police finally authorized the protest, up to 6,000 took to the streets of Berlin under strict control, and thousands more demonstrated in Milan and Rome. This is useful, but is not enough. Many more actions are planned, as well as direct lobbying of political representatives.
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Officials of the United Nations relief agencies have seen many atrocities, yet, they are still shocked by what is happening in Gaza. Thus, the heads of 11 UN agencies and six humanitarian organizations have signed a joint appeal dated Nov. 5 calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and the unrestricted entry of humanitarian relief for its people. “For almost a month, the world has been watching the unfolding situation in Israel and the Occupied Palestinian Territory in shock and horror at the spiraling numbers of lives lost and torn apart”, says the appeal. It deplores the 1,400 people killed in Israel, the thousands injured, and the 200 hostages taken.
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However, the appeal continues, “the horrific killings of even more civilians in Gaza is an outrage, as is cutting off 2.2 million Palestinians from food, water, medicine, electricity and fuel…. An entire population is besieged and under attack, denied access to the essentials for survival, bombed in their homes, shelters, hospitals and places of worship. This is unacceptable.”
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Among the signers are Martin Griffiths, Emergency Relief Coordinator and Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), Volker Türk, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, and Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, World Health Organization Director General.
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| The presidency of the UN Security Council is held this November by China, which has called for an immediate ceasefire and convening of an international peace conference. The Schiller Institute proposes to add to the agenda concrete economic initiatives, that can serve as a basis for peace and beneficial cooperation between Israel and Palestine. That, however, requires a change in thinking comparable to that experienced by Itzhak Rabin and Yasser Arafat in their time (cf. below). |
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| | | On. Nov. 4, thousands of protesters gathered outside the residence of Prime Minister Netanyahu in Jerusalem, demanding his resignation. They bitterly criticized him for his handling of the crisis, which has severely endangered the lives of the hostages, as well as for the blatant failure of security services to prevent the Oct. 7 attacks by Hamas in the first place. Other protests took place in Tel Aviv, in addition to countless less public meetings, and smaller events.
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Family members of hostages have continued to demonstrate in front of the Knesset, demanding priority be given to the release through negotiation of those taken captive. According to a poll for Israel’s Channel 13 published Nov. 4, 76% of those responding think Benjamin Netanyahu should resign.
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Even before the latest crisis, demonstrations were held for months against the Prime Minister, who is charged with corruption and seeking to reform the judiciary system for political purposes. The accusations today are incomparably more serious, including systemic ethnic cleansing in Gaza, after deliberately turning the Strip into an “open air concentration camp” and funding extremists in Hamas (cf. SAS 43/23).
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In the U.S. and the UK, even those circles that have always used Israel as a tool for their policies are becoming very nervous that the genocide in Gaza will demolish once and for all what remains of the credibility of the West in the Global South. Thus, an editorial in the City of London’s Financial Times had already called on Oct. 30 for a ceasefire, and an end to the “clear violation of international humanitarian law” in the Gaza Strip.
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| In the United States, a hard-hitting warning to Israel was issued by economist Jeffrey Sachs, who has become an outspoken opponent of the “unipolar world order”. His article, dated Oct. 31, is entitled: “Friends do not let friends commit crimes against humanity”. He begins: “Israel is running out of time to save itself -- not from Hamas, which lacks the means to defeat Israel militarily, but from itself. Israel’s war crimes in Gaza, verging on the crime of genocide according to the Center for Constitutional Rights, threaten to destroy Israel’s civil, political, economic, and cultural relations with the rest of the world. There are growing calls in Israel for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resign immediately. A new Israeli government should seize the opportunity to turn carnage into lasting peace through diplomacy.” |
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| | | On Nov. 4, 1995, Israel's Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in Tel Aviv, while leaving a large peace rally in support of the Oslo Accords he had signed with Yasser Arafat two years earlier. The murderer was spurred by a climate of hatred toward Rabin, and the agreements, created by Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies among the extremist supporters of the "Greater Israel" movement. Netanyahu later bragged, "I de facto put an end to the Oslo Accords".
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It is crucial to review the changes in thinking which led to the Oslo peace process, to gain insights into how peace can be made, in spite of a cycle of violence going back over 75 years.
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Rabin's career as a soldier was shaped by his commitment to security for Israel based on building overwhelming military superiority over the Palestinian population and Israel's Arab neighbors. He was the commander of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) which took Jerusalem, the West Bank, the Golan Heights and Gaza during the 1967 Six-Day war. As Minister of Defense during the First Intifada uprising by Palestinians in December 1987, he ordered the IDF to use violent force, demolish homes and expel rioters, to suppress the revolt. But he came to realize that such tactics would not bring about a peaceful resolution. According to his wife, Leah, in her autobiography, Rabin: Our Life, His Legacy: "The Intifada made it wholly clear... that Israel could not govern another people." It became evident "that only a political solution could succeed over the long term".
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The opportunity came after Yitzhak Rabin was elected Prime Minister in 1992. He called for accepting Palestinian self-government, bringing Palestinian officials into direct negotiations, and issuing a freeze on settlements in the occupied territories.
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He also opened secret talks with PLO officials in Oslo, which produced the Oslo Accords, with its two crucial economic annexes. These called for cooperation on mutually beneficial development projects, including agreements on water, energy, transportation and industrial production. Arafat reiterated his commitment to renunciation of terror and to recognition of Israel, which opened the door for the handshake between Rabin and Arafat at a White House signing ceremony on Sept. 13, 1993, in the presence of U.S. President Bill Clinton.
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| At that meeting, Rabin demonstrated the quality of statecraft required to end protracted warfare. He said: |
| | | “Let me say to you, the Palestinians, we are destined to live together on the same soil in the same land. We, the soldiers who have returned from battles stained with blood; we who have seen our relatives and friends killed before our eyes; we, who have attended their funerals and cannot look into the eyes of their parents; we, who have come from a land where parents bury their children; we, who have fought against you, the Palestinians; we say to you today in a loud and a clear voice, enough of blood and tears. Enough." |
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| Arafat responded by stating: |
| | | “My people are hoping that this agreement, which we are signing today, will usher in an age of peace, coexistence and equal rights.” |
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Rabin signed a peace treaty with Jordan's King Hussein on July 25, 1994, at the White House, and identified what is required to pursue peace: “If I raise my toast, I will raise it for those who have the courage to change axioms, to overcome prejudices, to change realities, and those who make it possible... Le Chaim.”
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Unfortunately, the promise of the Oslo Accords was never realized. The funds raised to begin the joint projects outlined in the two Economic Annexes were withheld by the World Bank, and then Rabin was felled by an assassin's bullet. Netanyahu's role in undermining the Oslo process and the legacy of statesmanship of Rabin and Arafat during his term in office from June 1996 to July 1998, is well documented. Since 2009, he has served as Prime Minister for all but eighteen months, and has repeatedly undermined any prospect for negotiations with the Palestinians.
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| More on the subject here. |
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| | | A groundbreaking conference was just held Nov. 6-8 in Kabul, Afghanistan, hosted by the Ibn Sina Research and Development Center. Titled: “Creating the Afghan Economic Miracle,” the conference has attracted scholars and guests from across Afghanistan and from other parts of the world. It’s stated aim is: “to present a comprehensive plan for the economic reconstruction of the entire country, with the goal to turn Afghanistan into a middle level-income country in the foreseeable future”.
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In addition to Schiller Institute Chairwoman Helga Zepp-LaRouche, who spoke, via video, on the first day, an SI delegation of six attended in person, and held various presentations over the course of the proceedings, focused on various topics of the economic reconstruction of the country. Reports on their interventions will follow in the next issue.
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Xinhua reports that Afghanistan’s acting Deputy Foreign Minister for Political Affairs Sher Mohammad Abbas Stanekzai kicked off the event, and called upon Afghan and foreign companies to invest in the war-ravaged country, and for Afghans living abroad “to return home and rebuild their country.”
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One of the top organizers said that a common comment that he got from participants was that they now have a real sense of hope for the future of the country and its development. Another commented after the first days’ proceedings that there is “a real sense that Afghanistan is taking charge of its own future. No funding for this conference came from outside the country.”
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The press release put out by the Ibn Sina Research and Development Centre noted that while relieving the humanitarian crisis is a priority, there must also be “a nationwide program of basic infrastructure like transport, energy, water management, communications, education and health care. Only if these basics are built in the entire country can productive agriculture and industry be developed.
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“For this goal, the Conference will present the economic plan called, ‘Operation Ibn Sina: The Coming Economic Miracle in Afghanistan,’ which has been worked out by the volunteer economists of the Schiller Institute, and provided to Afghan experts living abroad and in Afghanistan, to analyze and prioritize its goals.
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“The transformation of Afghanistan into a stable, prosperous country is also in the interests of all of the country’s neighbors, since the geographic location of Afghanistan makes it an organic hub for much of the transport and trade between Central Asia, South Asia and Southwest Asia. The integration of Afghanistan into the corridors and infrastructure projects of the Belt and Road Initiative is in the interest of all of Eurasia, as well as of Afghanistan.
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| “This program and outlook is in the tradition of one of the greatest sons of Afghanistan, Ibn Sina, whose father was born in Balkh, in the north of the country, and who is one of the greatest physicians and universal thinkers of all time. What an excellent metaphor for a rich and beautiful future for Afghanistan!” |
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| | | When the financial meltdown hit the world in 2007-2008, the centers of financial power, i.e., the City of London and Wall Street, responded by further hyperinflating their speculative financial bubble with quantitative easing and zero interest rates – instead of shutting down the whole casino. This only worsened the problem that had led to the 2008 crisis in the first place.
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Between 2007 and 2023, total world debt of all kinds grew from $150 trillion to $310 trillion -- a doubling in those 16 years. Interest rates were at close to zero for most of the time; but then the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and other central banks switched over to “quantitative tightening” and interest rates were raised beginning in March 2022 to try and control a hyperinflationary blowout. Today the Fed Funds rate stands at a whopping 5.25 to 5.50%, while the ECB rates are at 4.50 to 4.75%. This interest rate whiplash has caused a meltdown of the bond market and skyrocketing “unrealized losses” on the books of banks on both sides of the Atlantic, since the price of the old, zero-interest bonds they hold would be sharply reduced if they were sold in today’s 5.50% environment.
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The other major crisis caused by this policy of keeping interest rates “higher-for-longer”, is that it is nearly impossible for many debtors to refinance their old loans when they come due, and the debt service they have to pay is now skyrocketing. The “everything bubble” could blow out in any number of different debt sectors – real estate, student loans, commodity speculation, or developing countries’ debt.
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For the United States, between 2007 and 2023, debt quadrupled, from $8 trillion to $33 trillion. In 2007, the U.S. held 5% of total world debt; by 2023, it was more than 10% of the total.
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But the problem is worse still. Total world debt of $310 trillion is only a small part (about 15%) of total world financial aggregates, including derivatives, which is now pushing $2 quadrillion. That’s the real debt bomb that could be set off at any time.
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That, in turn, is what is driving the frantic attempts to maintain top-down control of the “unipolar world” through destabilizations and wars – targeting in particular Russia and China, but more generally, the entire dynamic around the BRICS and the Belt and Road Initiative.
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| The debt explosion presented above would be not so dramatic, if the underlying physical economy had expanded at a similar rate (the bottom line in LaRouche's famous “collapse function” curve. However, with the exception of China, all major economies have stagnated or contracted. |
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| | | The data for the Eurozone in Q3 this year show a contraction of 0.1%, which is only an approximation of the real contraction because GDP figures include both productive and non productive activities. A better indication is provided by figures for the manufacturing sector. The Hamburg Commercial Bank Economics has released a survey of those figures for the EU and for Germany. The charts are merciless and show a consistent downturn, with occasional short-lived upturns. Nonetheless, the authors apparently prefer to convey a rosier perspective, and thus see a potential rebound coming – but not until some time next year.
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“The Eurozone manufacturing sector’s trend over the last two years or so looks like a bumpy sleigh ride down into the valley. Given that that headline PMI barely moved over the last few months, including October, we may be about to reach the bottom of the valley. Thus, the big question is, when we will begin to make an ascent. The stagnating new orders index, which remains deep in negative territory, and the similar behaviour of the Quantity of Purchase Index do not suggest an immediate turnaround.”
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| And further: “The trajectory of Germany's economy resembles a plane preparing for touchdown: decelerating its descent before landing at the bottom.” |
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| | | With a popularity rating down to less than 20%, the three-party coalition government of Chancellor Olaf Scholz now also has to deal with a campaign among Free Democratic Party (FDP) members to pull out of the coalition. The drive, which had been building for months, took off after the drastic losses of votes for the FDP in the Oct. 8 elections for state parliament in Hesse and Bavaria (cf. SAS 41/23). The FDP was even voted out of the Bavarian state parliament.
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Three weeks later, 26 “rebels” published an open letter to the party leadership, headlined “Wake up Call Freedom”, calling for the party to leave the government. They mainly object to the utopian economic policies, which they compare to someone jumping out of an airplane, hoping that someone will extend him a parachute while in free fall. If the current government remains until the next scheduled national elections in the autumn of 2025, they warn, it will mean the deindustrialization of Germany due to the devastating combination of “green” regulations, energy and materials price inflation and a bureaucracy reluctant to approve new investment projects.
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The initiators of the Wakeup Call are recruiting new signatories nationally in favor of organizing an inner-party referendum, which would be binding for the party leadership. FDP chairman Christian Lindner, now Minister of Finance in the government, is blamed for failing to act as a “corrective” against the Greens, as he had promised to do when accepting the position two years ago, and thus for the dramatic loss of support for the party. Presumably, he would have to change policies or resign.
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For example, concerning nuclear power, Christian Lindner did not seriously oppose the government's decision to shut down the last operating nuclear plants last April. But the open letter calls for a re-entry into nuclear energy, endorsing construction of reactors based on new technologies, notably the German-Canadian project of a Dual Fluid system.
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| One major flaw of the signatories' policy is their defense of a “free market” economic policy, with as little state intervention as possible – although that approach has led to the overall industrial decline not only of Germany but of the transatlantic world. Real economic growth, supported by abundant quantities of nuclear power, which the signatories seem to favor, can only be achieved with an in-depth restructuring of the financial sector, including a system of bank separation, under which commercial banks issue long-term credit for productive sectors of the economy. That, in turn, cannot be done without wise state intervention. |
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| | | In an interview with London’s The Economist, published Nov. 1, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny recognized that the war is now in a “stalemate”, and “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough”. Rather, the conflict may “drag on for years” and “wear down” the country, unless a “new level of technology” is provided from the West. The commander-in-chief goes on to draw a parallel to the First World War. As The Economist notes, he acknowledges that Russia has the advantage in what will be a long war.
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(Russian spokesmen, on the contrary, deny any stalemate from their side, as Russian forces continue to pursue their goal.)
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The remarks by Gen. Zaluzhny provoked panic among Kyiv’s Western supporters, who insist on maintaining the illusion that Russia can be defeated, and that Global NATO will prevail – despite all evidence to the contrary. That the regime is not united behind the current strategy, as dictated from the West, is also corroborated in a lengthy article in Time magazine released Oct. 30.
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Reporter Simon Shuster was able to follow Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some of his top aides around as part of an interview he was doing with the President. What comes across immediately in the interview is the frustration with Ukraine’s Western partners for having war fatigue, especially after the onset of the Israeli-Palestine war. Much more interesting than the interview as such, is what Shuster heard from other sources.
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He writes: “Despite the recent setbacks on the battlefield, he does not intend to give up fighting or to sue for any kind of peace. On the contrary, his belief in Ukraine’s ultimate victory over Russia has hardened into a form that worries some of his advisers. It is immovable, verging on the messianic.”
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One of the President’s closest aides told Shuster that “We’re out of options. We’re not winning. But try telling him that….”. In debates on a new strategy among his team, “one issue has remained taboo: the possibility of negotiating a peace deal with the Russians”.
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| Coming back to Gen. Zaluzhny’s interview, Zelenskyy was asked about it at a joint press conference in Kyiv on Nov. 4 with Ursula von der Leyen. He insisted that “we have no right to give up”, adding that we need to think about where we are today, “not about where we will be tomorrow”. Such short-sightedness, as any good statesman or commander knows, is the stuff of tragedy. |
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| | | On Oct. 26-27, a representative of the U.S. Schiller Institute participated, in Minsk, in an in-person conference organized by the Foreign Ministry of Belarus, titled “International High Level Conference: Eurasian Security, Reality and Prospects in a Transforming World.” Keynote addresses were delivered by the Foreign Ministers Sergei Aleinik of Belarus, Sergey Lavrov of Russia, and Peter Szijjarto of Hungary, while the Chargé d’Affaires of the China Embassy delivered an address from Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The Deputy Foreign Ministers of Iran, Myanmar, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan were among the featured speakers, together with top officials of the OSCE, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and the Eurasian Economic Union.
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On the panel discussing “Economic Integration and … a Unified Eurasian Security Architecture”, Schiller Institute leader Richard A. Black reviewed three aspects of the many contributions of Lyndon LaRouche and the Schiller Institute to shaping the current transformation worldwide toward global equitable development: 1) the public introduction of the “Eurasian Land-Bridge” proposal in 1991, 2) the breakthrough in the science of physical economy made by Lyndon LaRouche, and 3) a discussion document circulated widely by Schiller Institute founder, Helga Zepp-LaRouche, titled, Ten Principles for a New Security and Economic Development Architecture”(cf. SAS 48/23). Black was joined on the panel by experts from China, Uzbekistan, Türkiye, Armenia and Belarus.
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He was also interviewed by TASS, and all the major Belarus TV, radio and internet media, during which he stressed the acute danger of the current Anglo-American policy to dismember Russia and to wage war against China.
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| Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov brought up a point he has raised in many recent speeches, namely that Russia remains open to working with Europe, if it manages to “find the strength to become independent” from the United States, and to “abandon their neocolonial instincts and a thoroughly ideological confrontationist policy...” |
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