STRATEGIC ALERT NEWSLETTER
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| | | A Nov. 5 article titled “Israel Minister Suspended after Calling Nuking Gaza an Option” in Politico reported that “Israel’s Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu was suspended indefinitely after he said in an interview that dropping a nuclear bomb on the Gaza Strip was ‘one of the possibilities,’ the government announced on Sunday”, Nov. 5.
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It would be supremely irresponsible to not take this threat seriously. Already, between 25,000 and 30,000 tons of bombs have been detonated by the Israeli Defense Forces in Gaza since Oct. 7. This far exceeds the bomb tonnage dropped in the most lethal air raids of the Second World War, including Hamburg (4 raids, 9,000 tons); Dresden (4 raids, 3,900 tons); and Tokyo (1,665 tons.) The Washington Post reported that the IDF had dropped “in less than a week what the US was dropping in Afghanistan in a year, in a much smaller, much more densely populated area”.
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One must ask: Has the decision been made to reintroduce mass murder in warfare as a “legitimate” practice?
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An alternative to this madness will be presented in an
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Emergency forum on Nov. 26, at 17.00 CET
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with International Peace Coalition members Helga Zepp-LaRouche, founder
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of the Schiller Institute, and Ray McGovern, former CIA analyst
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and co-founder of the Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.
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Following their presentations, the film, 8:15 Hiroshima: From Father to Daughter, directed by J.R. Heffelfinger and written and produced by Dr. Akiko Mikamo, will be shown. It is a first-hand account of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima City by U.S. forces. Dr. Mikamo will be available for discussion at the film’s conclusion.
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| Sign up for the forum and for access to translation and discussion of the presentations in French, German and Spanish here. |
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| | | The most important strategic event of last week was the four-hour summit meeting between Presidents Biden and Xi on Nov. 15 in San Francisco, which both sides reported were constructive and reduced the growing conflict opposing the two major powers (cf. below). It is assumed, although not officially confirmed, that the two leaders also discussed the war in Ukraine and the even more pressing depopulation war in Gaza. That would have included discussion of China’s rapidly growing importance in diplomacy in South-West Asia. Could it have convinced Joe Biden to at least not oppose efforts by others to bring about a ceasefire?
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In any event, on Nov. 20, Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted the visit of a delegation of five foreign ministers from four major Muslim nations: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Indonesia, and Jordan, and of the Palestinian Authority, together with the Secretary General of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation. They are demanding immediate action to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza and to ensure the protection of civilians. The delegation then flew from Beijing to Moscow, and then visited both London and Paris on Nov. 22, where they were joined by the Turkish and Nigerian Foreign Ministers. The plan is to visit all capitals of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council to further their demands.
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China holds the rotating presidency of the Security Council this month, and convened in that capacity a special session of the Council on Nov. 20, on the means to “Promote Sustainable Peace Through Common Development” -- an approach consistently favored by EIR and the Schiller Institute. Briefings were given by guest experts Dilma Rousseff, President of the New Development Bank, and Jeffrey Sachs, President of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, who has been speaking out against war; as well as by UN Secretary General António Guterres.
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In addition, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced Nov. 20 that he would host an online emergency meeting the next day of the heads of state and government of the BRICS group, which includes China and Russia, as well as Brazil and India. The leaders of the six new members as of Jan. 1 have also been invited (Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates).
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It seems, as of this writing, that Israel and the Palestinians have agreed on a deal involving a longer truce to allow urgent aid to be delivered, and the release of some of the hostages against some Palestinian prisoners held in Israel.
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But for the moment, on the ground in Gaza, the horror goes on. Gaza City has been destroyed, medical centers and schools in both the north and the south continue to be shelled. We have all seen the sickening images of the Al-Shifa hospital. The “evidence” presented by the Israeli Defense Forces that the hospital was used by Hamas as a nerve center has been refuted as “scanty”, “unconvincing”, or fabricated, including by such Western mainstream media as the Washington Post, CNN and the BBC. As Human Rights Watch and the New York Times, among others, have pointed out, bombing a hospital with civilian patients inside is illegal under international humanitarian law. Now, nowhere in the Gaza Strip is safe. Lines of fleeing refugees and their shelters in the south have also been shelled, under the pretext that they serve as human shields for Hamas. The latest death tally, as of Nov. 21, is 13,360.
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| In this context, it is essential to seek workable solutions, without being carried away by emotions. Those potential solutions will be discussed at the Nov. 26 forum organized by the International Peace Coalition (cf. previous item). |
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| | | Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has insisted time and again that he will not yield to the “heavy opposition” from around the world, but if the United States, in particular, indicates it will withdraw its until-now unconditional support, the Israelis will have to accept compromises.
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Thus, Netanyahu’s allies are very worried about the growing protests inside the U.S., especially among Jewish organizations that refuse to be silenced. Even more worrying for them, however, is the crack that has appeared in the near-monolithic support for Israel in the Congress.
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Indeed, four Jewish members of Congress (one senator and three representatives) came out last week, in separate statements, strongly criticizing the human toll of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, while supporting the need to destroy Hamas. As Sen. Ossoff said on Nov. 17: “The extent of civilian death and suffering in Gaza is unnecessary. It is a moral failure, and it should be unacceptable to the United States.”
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From the United Nations, the distress signals have increased. “This war is having a staggering and unacceptable number of civilian casualties, including women and children, every day,” UN Secretary-General António Guterres said in a statement Nov. 19, according to a UN News report. “This must stop. I reiterate my call for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire.”
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The UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), Volker Türk, was even blunter: “The horrendous events of the past 48 hours in Gaza beggar belief”, he said on the same day. “The killing of so many people at schools turned shelters, hundreds fleeing for their lives from Al-Shifa Hospital amid continuing displacement of hundreds of thousands in southern Gaza are actions which fly in the face of the basic protections civilians must be afforded under international law.” He cautioned that failing to adhere to these rules may constitute war crimes.
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The head of the UN Relief and Works Agency, Philippe Lazzarini, warned for his part: “This vicious war is reaching a point of no return when all rules are disrespected, in overt disregard for civilian lives”. He appealed “once again for humanity to prevail and for a humanitarian ceasefire right now”.
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Pedro Arrojo-Agudo, UN Special Rapporteur on the human rights to safe drinking water and sanitation, issued an urgent call to Israel to allow clean water and fuel into Gaza to activate the water supply network and desalination plants in the besieged enclave before it is too late. “Israel must stop using water as a weapon of war”, he said, adding that “Under Article 7 of the Rome Statute, intentionally depriving the civilian population of conditions of life, calculated to bring about their destruction, is an act of extermination and classified as a crime against humanity.”
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| So far, the response of the European Union to such calls of despair has been totally insufficient. Following Washington’s lead, it has simply called for “humanitarian pauses” to provide some relief for the civilian populations. |
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| | | The four-hour meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping, that took place Nov. 15 on the sidelines of the annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference, reestablished lines of communication at various levels between the two countries, which had been frayed and even broken during the period of growing tensions of the last few years.
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The summit had been preceded by a series of high-level meetings between the government ministers of both countries, related to commerce, trade, finance, foreign policy and climate policies. There had also been a number of high-level visits with President Xi by leading figures from U.S. industry, interested in investing more in the Chinese market, as well as by California governor Gavin Newsom.
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The major takeaways of the summit were an agreement between the two Presidents to cooperate on counternarcotics efforts, with China working to restrict the export of precursor drugs which go into the production of fentanyl. They also agreed to reestablish military-to-military relations, which had been broken since the provocative visit of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan. Both of these measures were major demands raised by the U.S.
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The two parties also agreed to increase people-to-people exchanges, including exchange of students, increased tourist travel, and increased exchanges of groups and institutions visiting each of the nations for study or for work purposes. In order to accomplish this, the visa process by both countries would be greatly facilitated.
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In his opening remarks, Xi noted the fundamental difference in the way the two countries view each other, a difference that will eventually have to be overcome in order to establish relations of real friendship between the two countries. While the U.S. still views China as its main “rival” or “competitor”, he said, China would like to move it to the level of “friendly” relations. “I am still of the view that major-country competition is not the prevailing trend of current times and cannot solve the problems facing China and the United States or the world at large.... Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed, and one country’s success is an opportunity for the other.”
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It is still too early to know how far the U.S. will go in meeting some of the major concerns raised by the Chinese side, in particular with regard to lifting some restrictions on trade and on the export of semiconductors, vital for much of China’s high technology production. The U.S. President did reassure his Chinese counterpart that Washington remains committed to the One-China policy and does not support Taiwan independence. Here too, the future flow of weapons from the United States to Taiwan could indicate how strong that commitment really is.
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| The meeting, however, does represent something of a “thaw” in US-China relations. The warm welcome President Xi received in San Francisco by the Asian-American population also helped to counter the Western media narrative of the Chinese President as some evil “autocrat”. He also held a dinner with the CEOs of top U.S. companies, who gave him several standing ovations. Xi himself insisted on many occasions on the importance he gives to establishing stronger people-to-people relations. |
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| | | With the Iowa caucuses, which mark the official beginning of the 2024 presidential campaign, less than two months away, the news for the Democrats has not been good. Poll after poll shows President Biden trailing Donald Trump, who is the likely Republican nominee, even though he faces 91 criminal charges in four upcoming trials. While the polls are close, the problem party officials face is that a majority of those answering disapprove of the job Biden is doing, and the majority of Democrats wish he would step aside.
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A sample of the last 17 polls reported tells the story: Biden's approval rating has fallen to 40%, with 57% disapproval. His support among Arab-Americans, who gave him 59% of their votes in 2020, has plunged to 17%, while Trump is gaining among regular Democratic constituencies, such as Hispanics and African-Americans.
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Democratic operatives say that it's too early to panic, that Biden has two main advantages: the economy is strong, and he is seen as a "steady hand" in foreign policy, especially compared to Trump. They are overlooking two things: first, most Americans have been hit hard by inflation and high interest rates, with some polls finding over two-thirds saying the economy is going in the wrong direction. Second, Biden's foreign policy, typified by his support for NATO's proxy war in Ukraine against Russia, his backing of Netanyahu's merciless attack on Palestinian civilians in Gaza, and threats against Iran and China, is increasingly seen as a disaster, verging on dangerous.
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| Popular support for the Ukraine war has fallen, due to the failure of the counter-offensive, and charges of corruption of the Zelensky regime. And polls show that 56% are opposed to his commitment to "full support" for Netanyahu. With demonstrations against the wars building internationally each week, it may become impossible to save Biden's re-election campaign. |
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| | | Germany's Constitutional Court ruled on Nov. 15 that the government's decision of one year ago to shift non-used funds earmarked for compensation of Covid-related losses to the Climate and Transformation Fund (KTF) violates the constitutional clause on the “debt brake”, and is therefore illegal. This leaves the Berlin government with a financial hole of €60 billion for its over-ambitious climate-related projects, which require a total volume of €216 billion until the end of 2026. The “debt brake”, enacted in 2011, strictly limits the budget deficit the government is allowed to incur.
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"The ruling is the worst-case scenario for the 'traffic light' , commented economist Jens Südekum of the Heinrich Heine University in Düsseldorf, who advises Minister for Economic Affairs Robert Habeck of the Greens. So far, it looks as if only the funding of the energy efficiency program, which is designed to subsidize the replacement of heating systems in private homes, is ensured, and all the rest is “under scrutiny”, according to Südekum. The subsidies on the price of electricity and for establishing the chip industry in Germany would be slated for cuts.
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The government has tried to downplay the consequences of the ruling, with Habeck proclaiming that the green projects planned would still be carried out “albeit with less money” -- an unrealistic proposition. Mobilizing new funds in the range of 60 billion is also problematic, as the opposition CDU (Christian Democrats), which brought this case before Germany's highest court and won, has warned it would file legal complaints against every new trick tried by the government. Plundering other positions in the fiscal budget would create such frictions among the three coalition partners, that the government might not survive. The SPD would oppose cuts affecting the social and labor market projects, while declaring a “climate emergency” to justify a suspension of the debt brake, as the SPD and Greens are considering, would run into fierce opposition from the FDP.
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| Postponing the planned investments to a later phase of the KTF climate fund, to 2024 and 2025 for instance, would also be challenged by the CDU at the Constitutional Court. Whatever the approach taken, it will increase the ungovernability of Germany, including if the current government is replaced, but the new one fails to reject the obsessive climate protection policy and does not focus on long overdue investments in the real economy, particularly classic infrastructure and a reliable energy supply, such as nuclear power. For such investments, the debt brake would have to be lifted for good, as the projects funded would create far more real wealth, than the amount invested. |
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| | | The Swedish government published last week a roadmap for the construction of new nuclear power reactors – two by 2035, and another eight by 2045-- with projected government credit guarantees of 400 billion crowns (€35 billion). The roadmap is intended to enter into legal force by January 1, 2024.
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Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Energy, Business and Industry Ebba Busch said: "Sweden is laying the foundations to become a leading nuclear power nation again and a power factor for the green transition in the West." Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson noted for her part that the state would assume a large financial role in the expansion. “The last few years have shown how expensive it is not to build nuclear power."
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In Belgium as well, the governing coalition has decided to reverse the nuclear phase-out policy of its predecessors. Otherwise, the Doel 4 and Tihange 3 reactor units would have been the last of a total of six units to be shut down in 2025. Although they will be taken off the grid for a good year for modernization, they are set to run for a total of ten more years from November 2026 on. Without the extension, studies have shown that there would have been an acute supply shortfall.
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And Switzerland, as we reported last week, will extend the life of its four nuclear plants, that now provide some 40% of the electricity produced (cf. SAS 46/23).
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| Such rational arguments have not convinced the green ideologues in the German government. Thus, Economy Minister Robert Habeck rejected outright an offer by nuclear power operator PreussenElektra to resume operating the Isar-2 plant, which was among the last three plants finally shut down on April 15. The operator has offered to keep its plant operational at a price of 60 euros per MWh, which was said to be far below the current market value of electricity of between 100 and 130 euros per Mwh. Restarting the Isar-2 facility would take about a year to train staff, deal with paperwork and purchase new fuel. |
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| | | Libertarian extremist Javier Milei of the Freedom Advances party (LLA) came away with a big win in Argentina’s Nov. 19 run-off presidential elections, defeating Sergio Massa of the ruling Union for the Fatherland (UxP) coalition 56%-44%. This was a rout for Massa and represented a resounding condemnation of the government of Alberto Fernandez, who failed to follow through on any of the promises he made to rebuild the economy in 2019, after defeating the ultra-corrupt, pro-IMF President Mauricio Macri.
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Instead, the government, in which Sergio Massa is Economy Minister, constantly made disastrous concessions to the IMF. For Massa to win, they would have had to sharply reverse course and immediately launch a physical-economic recovery program in conjunction with China and the BRICS, as proposed by the Schiller Institute.
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Neither Massa nor Fernández heeded this policy advice and the country descended into an ever deeper financial crisis, which no amount of fancy footwork could remedy. Massa was dealing with constant financial warfare from the London and Wall Street bankers as well as the IMF, a severe shortage of foreign reserves, uncontrolled inflation, rising interest rates and several devaluations. China came to the rescue with a $20 billion yuan swap from the People’s Bank of China to provide urgently needed reserves, but this couldn’t address the deeper problems with the economy.
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The deep anger and frustration felt by the Argentine people, the victims of this economic disaster, are reflected in the fact that Milei won in almost all the nation’s interior provinces, and lost by only one percentage point in the all-important province of Buenos Aires, home to 37% of the nation’s electorate and normally a Peronist stronghold. Unfortunately, Milei’s victory appears to be one for Macri, who took over the libertarian’s campaign after his poor performance in the first round of the elections four weeks ago (cf. SAS 43/23). Macri hopes to install his own neoliberal cronies in Milei’s cabinet, although after his big victory Milei is thinking twice about taking orders from mafia figure Macri.
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Many people voted for Milei because they wanted “change” and because Milei was an “outsider,” but his massive win hasn’t dispelled the uncertainty that is rampant in the population. In his first announcements Nov. 19 and 20, he laid out a fascist economic agenda straight from the Austrian school of economics. He has promised to impose drastic austerity, in order to shrink what he called the “omnipresent state”; subsidies for public services will be eliminated; prices will be determined by “the market;” and “anything that can be in the hands of the private sector will be.” There is “no time for gradualism, no time for weakness,” he told his followers Nov. 19.
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| Milei’s future Foreign Minister, neoliberal economist Diana Mondino, told Sputnik-Brazil Nov. 19 that she sees no reason why Argentina should join the BRICS as of Jan. 1, as is now planned, since membership offers no particular benefit to the country. Milei meanwhile plans to make his first overseas trip to the U.S., followed by Israel. |
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| | | In last week’s issue, we covered the successful conference on the reconstruction of Afghanistan, organized by the Ibn Sina Research and Development Center in Kabul Nov. 6-8. An envoy of the Italian daily Il Fatto Quotidiano, who was at that conference, reported on it in the Nov. 19 edition. He describes the reality of the new Afghanistan in terms quite different from the biased mainstream media, focusing on the differences between the new generation of Taliban leaders, oriented to economic and social progress, and the old, traditionalist one.
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Il Fatto being Italy's seventh largest daily newspaper by distribution (paper and digital combined), the report is an important breakthrough for the Schiller Institute’s efforts to build a bridge between the new Afghan and Asian realities and the West, countering the Anglo-American push for the division of the world into blocks.
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Author Stefano Citati describes the atmosphere in Kabul outside and inside the conference, writing that there were “few burkas”, but many cellphones to be seen. Furthermore, many women participated in the conference, which he views as “promising” for women’s emancipation.
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“A few days ago, a conference was held in Kabul organized by the Schiller Institute and representatives of the large Afghan community in Germany, which sought to inspire the regime on the priorities, especially economic ones, that can bring the country out of isolation and enable it to lift itself out of endemic poverty. Numerous members of the government showed up with a large female following that crowded the conference hall, taking vexatious selfies with smartphones that no one is deprived of anymore...” He further notes that several members of the government talk openly, though not yet officially, about lifting the ban on female teaching.
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| After a long introduction on the last 50 years of Afghanistan’s history, the author reports on former UN anti-drug Czar Pino Arlacchi's intervention at the conference, including the proposal for a donors' conference to raise $100 million over five years to ensure that the 500,000 or so farmers can permanently replace the profitable opium fields with other crops, which met with immediate success. Another issue prominently discussed, Citati notes, was the Qosh Tepa canal, a major infrastructure in Northern Afghanistan which should be 285 km long and convert half a million hectares of desert into farmland. |
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